Pachter: Modern Warfare 3 Is Easy Holiday Winner
Well, considering that analysts predicted lifetime sales of MW3 to be around 25 million and lifetime sales of BF3 to be around 12 million, this makes perfect mathematical sense.
According to an unsurprising Forbes article loaded with lots of big numbers, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has predicted that EA's Battlefield 3 will be outsold by Activision's Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 by a 2:1 ratio this holiday season.
Pachter believes DICE's highly anticipated effort can manage 8 million copies in the fourth quarter, while MW3 will sell double that number. BF3 gets the jump as it comes out today (MW3 is slated for a November 8 release) but that may not matter in the long run. In the fourth quarter alone, Pachter thinks the two games will combine to generate $1.4 billion in sales for the holidays. ...that'd be a ridiculous 15% of all retail game sales for the quarter, by the way.
Pachter added that MW3 will likely have better longevity, as he doesn't believe BF3 can sell more than 2 million copies in 2012, while MW3 can easily sell another 8 million. However, despite the predictions, EA has always said they only want to eat into CoD's market share, as boss Peter Moore told GameSpot:
"If you look at last year, you might argue that Call of Duty took maybe 90 percent of the market share.We think we can knock that down to 70 percent this year. We don't have to outsell Call of Duty to have a very successful year. This is a long-term strategy to be a major player, if not ultimately a dominant player in this industry. But it starts this year."
Hope you like your shooters.
10/24/2011 8:36:18 PM John Shepard