Big-Budget New IPs Are Dying Out
Over the past few weeks, we've all heard the unfortunate news surrounding Kingdoms of Amalur: Reckoning and "Project Copernicus" developer 38 Studios. The most recent update from Joystiq is even more discouraging. Just sad.
Now, I don't know if the company mishandled that $75 million loan they were given, or if they screwed up in other ways. What I do know is that Reckoning was a relatively well-received title that also did quite well on the sales charts. In the increasingly difficult realm of the big-budget new IP, it certainly didn't tank; in fact, it was viewed as a success right out of the gate. But things went south fast and the situation, from an originality and innovation standpoint, is growing dire.
The industry has long since thrived on big-name sequels. But we always need fresh names to keep gaming progressive; to continue to give gamers new experiences, and new developers and designers fresh influences. But at this point, given the 38 Studios apparent difficulties, how successful does a new IP have to be? How many copies does it have to sell just for the developers to keep their jobs? Forget about raking in huge amounts of cash; we're only talking about survival, here. Some years back, Free Radical had to shutter its doors, primarily due to the flop that was Haze.
But Reckoning was no Haze. On top of which, you've got developers everywhere repeating the same exact sentiment: Launching a successful new IP is getting borderline impossible. Look at Ninja Theory and Heavenly Sword (which evidently sold 1.5 million copies and the studio still said it wasn't enough) and Enslaved: Odyssey to the West. You might also note that many of the newest, most innovative titles are found in the digital/downloadable realm now. Why? Because the money is less; hence, the risk is less. So we get Journey, Braid, Joe Danger, Linger in Shadows, echochrome, The Unfinished Swan (among many others).
Undoubtedly, this is also a big reason why we're seeing so many reboots. Developers everywhere have realized that consumers are really only buying names they recognize, perhaps even regardless of review scores. The latter part is what scares me the most, as this industry has historically rewarded quality. However, so long as something like Heavy Rain can hit big, there's still hope, right?
Tags: 38 studios, kingdoms of amalur, games industry
5/24/2012 10:10:40 AM Ben Dutka
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Comments (22 posts)
Ben Dutka PSXE [Administrator]
Thursday, May 24, 2012 @ 10:50:25 AM
For the most part, trouble continues to follow those that risk the new IP.
oONewcloudOo
Thursday, May 24, 2012 @ 11:52:32 AM
Captain_Kush
Thursday, May 24, 2012 @ 12:53:08 PM
xenris
Thursday, May 24, 2012 @ 1:14:53 PM
As for THQ, I don't know what happened there. I used to look forward to a game with THQ on it. I loved all the red factions except for Armageddon as they took the series in a kind of lame direction. Darksiders I think is one of the most underrated new IPs around. I guess maybe it is marketing? I really wish it was easier for people to get ideas off the ground and actually be successful.
oONewcloudOo
Thursday, May 24, 2012 @ 1:16:19 PM
Comic Shaman
Thursday, May 24, 2012 @ 10:51:16 AM
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On the other hand, I think an established studio like Bungie or Rockstar has a much better chance of whipping up excitement about new products than an unknown. Of course, those studios also have a lot of pressure to keep doing what they've done to bring in the reliable cash.
It's possible that as high-end game production requires bigger and bigger budgets, a start-up studio will have better luck making its reputation on downloadable, lower-priced games before tackling the bigger projects. I don't know if we've seen that happen yet, though. I mean, I know I'd be interested in a new IP from thatgamecompany, so maybe that could work.
Still, all in all I think it's good to remember that it wasn't too long ago that titles like Mass Effect and Assassin's Creed were new and unproven IPs. There's always hope.
Teddie9
Thursday, May 24, 2012 @ 3:18:00 PM
Highlander
Thursday, May 24, 2012 @ 12:11:06 PM
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Consider how much, in % terms, of the total gamer time and spend is sucked into Cod and similar games now. CoD itself has been so ridiculously successful it is sufficient to distort the industry alone, but it's not alone. The time and $$ lost to playing games like CoD are time and $$ lost to other games. When games need to sell 3+ million copies to break even because of the initial investment to make the game, it's tough to justify taking a risk on a new IP. Especially when you already know that a decent proportion of the gaming population is playing something else and not spending their $$.
tes37
Thursday, May 24, 2012 @ 4:40:05 PM
Lawless SXE
Thursday, May 24, 2012 @ 2:29:09 PM
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Fallout 3 was, effectively a new IP as were L.A. Noire and Red Dead Redemption, but they all came from renowned, trusted developers. The real problems lie in the remaining independent developers that team up with publishers that don't really care about them or their games enough to give them the attention that they deserve. Three were mentioned in the article, but let's not forget the efforts of Game Republic, Double Fine, Cavia, and even Platinum.
I have to go, but I may take this to the forums later... it's an interesting topic methinks.
bigrailer19
Thursday, May 24, 2012 @ 3:08:22 PM
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But look at others, Borderlands, Dead Space, Darksiders, inFamous, Heavy Rain, among many others, all succeeding. Also games like Dead Island that had great coverage from that debut trailer have benefitted quite well this generation. It went on to be well received. On top of that the developers are seemingly doing great.
As for Heavenly Sword, I'm sorry but that's on Ninja Theory. I'm a fan of their developing skills but they are an a** backwards company, that has no clear direction. Enslaved was not a success, but HS was, they just neglect that fact. Look how many people want a HS2. They don't see that! Now look they picked up a franchise that was already established to get some sales.
Point is there have been a lot of new ip' introduced this gen that have succeeded and have gone on to be huge franchises.
As for the studios going under, I really havnt seen a lot of that. There has been some though don't get me wrong. I'm not sure how to answer the question, because I'm not sure what it takes to be successful. It's unfortunate that 38 studios is in this position. My guess is mis-management, because Amular seemed to do very well. Same goes for LA Noire. It seems from what i understand is that whole ordeal was terribly mis-managed. Also, obviously the game had some great technology that no doubt was super expensive. So who knows.
Last edited by bigrailer19 on 5/24/2012 3:22:33 PM
Ben Dutka PSXE [Administrator]
Thursday, May 24, 2012 @ 6:56:43 PM
bigrailer19
Thursday, May 24, 2012 @ 10:36:13 PM
I guess what I'm seeing is higher successes than failures.
Crabba
Thursday, May 24, 2012 @ 6:56:27 PM
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Now the crazy part about this article: 'In a press conference this afternoon, Rhode Island governor Lincoln Chafee said that the studio needed to sell three million copies of Kingdoms of Amalur: Reckoning in order to break even, but the game ultimately sold 1.2 million. "The game failed," he added.'
Is it just me, or is it completely insane to assume and count on selling over THREE MILLION copies of a brand new IP?!? How can you put that kind of budget on not only a new IP, but from a new studio as well..
How about have a little bit of realistic expectations mixed in once in a while?!
CrusaderForever
Thursday, May 24, 2012 @ 8:39:34 PM
CrusaderForever
Thursday, May 24, 2012 @ 8:36:24 PM
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___________
Friday, May 25, 2012 @ 4:28:55 AM
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in other words sorry folks but you only have yourselves to blame!
if it was games like LA Noire and i am alive breaking the sales records and not last years reruns like COD and GTA than we would see a hell of allot more new IPs and new concepts.
but the sad truth is 99% of the games that break 6M units are the ones that are the least original and risky.
which is exactly why were in such a saturation of nothing but shooters and RPGs!
because yous have proven to publishers there the only games that sell so of course there the only games there going to release!

Kingdoms of Amalur: Reckoning









oONewcloudOo
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Thursday, May 24, 2012 @ 10:44:50 AM