Analysts: Call Of Duty May Be On A Downward Trajectory
Call of Duty: Black Ops IICall of Duty: Black Ops II will undoubtedly pull down big numbers when it launches in November. But has the franchise - and the genre - already peaked?
A few industry analysts believe so. In speaking to GamesIndustry International, Macquarie Securities' Ben Schachter said they have "significant concerns that CoD may have peaked in 2011." Specifically, he notes that both hardware and software sales have been declining in 2012, lifetime Modern Warfare 3 sales are still behind Black Ops, and "the genre seems tired."
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter agrees with that view, and added:
"Annual sales at the 25 million level are unprecedented, so it's easy to say 'that's the peak.' I think that the growth in online multiplayer fueled CoD sales, since it was (and probably still is) the best multiplayer experience available. However, last year, Battlefield multiplayer probably cannibalized it a little bit, and this year, Halo and Medal of Honor could cannibalize CoD a bit more. Next year, another Battlefield plus the Respawn and Bungie games probably cannibalize it a bit more."
Of course, this won't stop Black Ops II from becoming the best selling game of the year, and Pachter said Activision "shouldn't be concerned if it loses some players at the margin." After all, "they created a phenomenon, and others are emulating them." Still, is anyone sensing a Guitar Hero-like trend, here? Worth billions one minute and a couple years later, almost worthless by Activision standards...?
Tags: call of duty, cod games, call of duty sequel, gaming industry, shooters
8/6/2012 8:19:13 PM Ben Dutka
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Comments (20 posts)
Qubex
Tuesday, August 07, 2012 @ 4:20:56 AM
Q!
"play.experience.enjoy"
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ZenChichiri
Monday, August 06, 2012 @ 9:42:18 PM
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CoD got many non-gamers into gaming, which I see as a good thing. Many people fail to realize that a lot of these people that had only been playing CoD games and nothing else weren't gamers to begin with. It seems like these gamers are starting to get bored with the same thing each year, and are looking to expand their gaming interests.
Now that people are thirsting for something new, but still within the gaming realm, my hope is that these new CoD gamers start to realize that there are other facets of gaming to tap into. On their trips to the game store they might look at the shelves and realize there is diversity just waiting for them to grab.
Just my 2 cents on what I hope is happening, and not factually based by any means.
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Fane1024
Tuesday, August 07, 2012 @ 7:52:16 PM
I think the numbers are better explained by members of diverse sub-groups of gamers (some more casual than others) all giving in to peer pressure and buying into the phenomenon.
Then again, I haven't been in school for years and don't know exactly how peer pressure currently manifests. I just don't believe there are kids today who didn't play *something* before being exposed to COD.
I would agree that most probably weren't the sort of "hardcore" or "old-school" gamer with wide tastes that congregates here.
Last edited by Fane1024 on 8/7/2012 7:58:19 PM
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Fane1024
Tuesday, August 07, 2012 @ 8:05:02 PM
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Gamer46
Monday, August 06, 2012 @ 10:14:14 PM
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H0TSHELLZ
Monday, August 06, 2012 @ 11:12:39 PM
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firesoul453
Monday, August 06, 2012 @ 11:48:55 PM
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And what if it's not
"Black ops is the second best selling game of the year, not even worth making another"
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Rogueagent01
Tuesday, August 07, 2012 @ 1:47:27 AM
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As far as CoD is concerned I really do hope I am wrong and that it tanks as early as this year but I just don't see that happening.
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Neo_Aeon666
Wednesday, August 08, 2012 @ 5:37:58 PM
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ulsterscot
Tuesday, August 07, 2012 @ 4:00:39 AM
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Hopefully new consoles will spark the industry again - imagine the PS4 and Xbox 720 released simultaneously with MW4 as the big launch title - wouldnt that piss off a lot of posters here.
- quite sure COD will rule the roost for some years to come.
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Qubex
Tuesday, August 07, 2012 @ 4:22:11 AM
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Q!
"play.experience.enjoy"
Last edited by Qubex on 8/7/2012 4:22:26 AM
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___________
Tuesday, August 07, 2012 @ 5:44:20 AM
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make up your god dam mind!!!!!!
im really starting to believe they just have a hat sitting on the entry door, and each day they shuffle it to pick out the days topic!
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slugga_status
Tuesday, August 07, 2012 @ 8:41:03 AM
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Then this year..with Halo and WarFighter coming out..It's gonna be interesting to see how well BO II turns out
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wackazoa
Tuesday, August 07, 2012 @ 9:26:08 AM
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Excelsior1
Tuesday, August 07, 2012 @ 9:46:12 AM
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lot of gamers who buy that game simply because their friends do. My nephews and cousins in high school and middle school are on Xbox Live playing COD contantly after school. When I ask them why LIVE and COD they always say it's because all their friends are. There is defintely peer pressure going on there in the younger crowd in particular that I'm certain drives COD sales and even 360 sales, It's such a powerful dynamic that I have often wondered if the 360 would be where it is today without COD.
COD might fade in time but I think it will take a really bad COD game to blow up that crowd.
Last edited by Excelsior1 on 8/7/2012 9:55:51 AM
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DjEezzy
Tuesday, August 07, 2012 @ 10:19:06 AM
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Highlander
Tuesday, August 07, 2012 @ 10:55:56 AM
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WorldEndsWithMe
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Monday, August 06, 2012 @ 9:28:27 PM