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Analysts: Call Of Duty May Be On A Downward Trajectory

Call of Duty: Black Ops II will undoubtedly pull down big numbers when it launches in November. But has the franchise - and the genre - already peaked?

A few industry analysts believe so. In speaking to GamesIndustry International, Macquarie Securities' Ben Schachter said they have "significant concerns that CoD may have peaked in 2011." Specifically, he notes that both hardware and software sales have been declining in 2012, lifetime Modern Warfare 3 sales are still behind Black Ops, and "the genre seems tired."

Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter agrees with that view, and added:

"Annual sales at the 25 million level are unprecedented, so it's easy to say 'that's the peak.' I think that the growth in online multiplayer fueled CoD sales, since it was (and probably still is) the best multiplayer experience available. However, last year, Battlefield multiplayer probably cannibalized it a little bit, and this year, Halo and Medal of Honor could cannibalize CoD a bit more. Next year, another Battlefield plus the Respawn and Bungie games probably cannibalize it a bit more."

Of course, this won't stop Black Ops II from becoming the best selling game of the year, and Pachter said Activision "shouldn't be concerned if it loses some players at the margin." After all, "they created a phenomenon, and others are emulating them." Still, is anyone sensing a Guitar Hero-like trend, here? Worth billions one minute and a couple years later, almost worthless by Activision standards...?

Tags: call of duty, cod games, call of duty sequel, gaming industry, shooters

8/6/2012 8:19:13 PM Ben Dutka

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Comments (20 posts)

WorldEndsWithMe
Monday, August 06, 2012 @ 9:28:27 PM
Reply

Good.

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Qubex
Tuesday, August 07, 2012 @ 4:20:56 AM

Lol World... cool avatar :)

Q!

"play.experience.enjoy"

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ZenChichiri
Monday, August 06, 2012 @ 9:42:18 PM
Reply

Here is what I hope is happening and what I had hoped would happen with the CoD boom:

CoD got many non-gamers into gaming, which I see as a good thing. Many people fail to realize that a lot of these people that had only been playing CoD games and nothing else weren't gamers to begin with. It seems like these gamers are starting to get bored with the same thing each year, and are looking to expand their gaming interests.

Now that people are thirsting for something new, but still within the gaming realm, my hope is that these new CoD gamers start to realize that there are other facets of gaming to tap into. On their trips to the game store they might look at the shelves and realize there is diversity just waiting for them to grab.

Just my 2 cents on what I hope is happening, and not factually based by any means.

Agree with this comment 5 up, 0 down Disagree with this comment

Fane1024
Tuesday, August 07, 2012 @ 7:52:16 PM

I don't buy your premise that COD players were non-gamers (except those that were previously toddlers, perhaps). It's more likely that many were semi-casual sports gamers who added COD to their rotation or PC shooter fans who converted to console gaming.

I think the numbers are better explained by members of diverse sub-groups of gamers (some more casual than others) all giving in to peer pressure and buying into the phenomenon.

Then again, I haven't been in school for years and don't know exactly how peer pressure currently manifests. I just don't believe there are kids today who didn't play *something* before being exposed to COD.

I would agree that most probably weren't the sort of "hardcore" or "old-school" gamer with wide tastes that congregates here.

Last edited by Fane1024 on 8/7/2012 7:58:19 PM

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Fane1024
Tuesday, August 07, 2012 @ 8:05:02 PM

p.s. I tried to add a post-script acknowledging that your comment was more hope than firm contention and apologizing if mine sounded needlessly contentious, but the PS3 browser was its usual flawless self.

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Gamer46
Monday, August 06, 2012 @ 10:14:14 PM
Reply

CoD may have hit its peak, not sure I'd say that for the genre as a whole yet though.

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H0TSHELLZ
Monday, August 06, 2012 @ 11:12:39 PM
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Im pulling out my B.S card due to the FACT VGchartz.com posted back in may that it surpassed BO sales, also console sales are down because PS3's rarely break, and M$ fixed there 360's RROD. This Analyst just wants attention because he knows he cant get it by talking about another game........100% B.S BLACK OPS II will own all FPS even Halo and you can take that to the BANK !

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firesoul453
Monday, August 06, 2012 @ 11:48:55 PM
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Even if it doesn't beat mw3 in sales, it still will probably be the best selling game of the year

And what if it's not

"Black ops is the second best selling game of the year, not even worth making another"

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Rogueagent01
Tuesday, August 07, 2012 @ 1:47:27 AM
Reply

Unforunately I think they are wrong. I think CoD is gonna have at least a couple more years before it hits its downward spiral, just for *hits and giggles I'll go with 2014 as the year that it really starts to bring in low numbers(and what I mean is numbers that are more in line with the rest of gaming). And as far as the FPS genre altogether, that isn't going anywhere anytime soon, which I personally don't mind as I have always enjoyed a good shooter.

As far as CoD is concerned I really do hope I am wrong and that it tanks as early as this year but I just don't see that happening.

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Neo_Aeon666
Wednesday, August 08, 2012 @ 5:37:58 PM

Hah but in 2014 they might finally jump on a new engine XD

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ulsterscot
Tuesday, August 07, 2012 @ 4:00:39 AM
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with game sales down everywhere - im not sure how they can single out COD - gaming in general is doing poorly sales wise.

Hopefully new consoles will spark the industry again - imagine the PS4 and Xbox 720 released simultaneously with MW4 as the big launch title - wouldnt that piss off a lot of posters here.
- quite sure COD will rule the roost for some years to come.

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Qubex
Tuesday, August 07, 2012 @ 4:22:11 AM
Reply

It's not a huge loss to the non-twitch gaming world. For my twitching fix I will stick to Battlefield thanks...

Q!

"play.experience.enjoy"

Last edited by Qubex on 8/7/2012 4:22:26 AM

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___________
Tuesday, August 07, 2012 @ 5:44:20 AM
Reply

yesterday there saying nows the time to buy antivision stock, and now there saying COD is on the decline!
make up your god dam mind!!!!!!
im really starting to believe they just have a hat sitting on the entry door, and each day they shuffle it to pick out the days topic!

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slugga_status
Tuesday, August 07, 2012 @ 8:41:03 AM
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People are simply tired of playing CoD..People are starting to realize that there are other quality FPS' out there..Especially military shooters at that..

Then this year..with Halo and WarFighter coming out..It's gonna be interesting to see how well BO II turns out

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wackazoa
Tuesday, August 07, 2012 @ 9:26:08 AM
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Would explain why Activision was for sale recently.

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Excelsior1
Tuesday, August 07, 2012 @ 9:46:12 AM
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Nope I don't sense a Guitar Hero vibe at all. COD has the advantage of the intense social dynamics in play when it comes to the multiplayer. There are a
lot of gamers who buy that game simply because their friends do. My nephews and cousins in high school and middle school are on Xbox Live playing COD contantly after school. When I ask them why LIVE and COD they always say it's because all their friends are. There is defintely peer pressure going on there in the younger crowd in particular that I'm certain drives COD sales and even 360 sales, It's such a powerful dynamic that I have often wondered if the 360 would be where it is today without COD.

COD might fade in time but I think it will take a really bad COD game to blow up that crowd.

Last edited by Excelsior1 on 8/7/2012 9:55:51 AM

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DjEezzy
Tuesday, August 07, 2012 @ 10:19:06 AM
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I think Military FPS are getting tired. It really seems like the games are just the same. I still love me a fps but i'm more interested in Bioshock and Borderlands. Something that isn't military centric. I'm actually more of a fan of TPS now. Ghost recon isn't a AAA title but it's extremely fun. I guess i've just played too many shooters lately and have kind of veered away from them for the most part.

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Highlander
Tuesday, August 07, 2012 @ 10:55:56 AM
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So we're supposed to think that CoD will pull a guitar hero? Not sure that will happen, people seem to have an insatiable appetite for shooting each other - at least in the major western gaming markets at any rate.

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Godslim
Tuesday, August 07, 2012 @ 11:18:01 AM
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The problem i have with cod is that they havent added dedicated servers, and they dont really change anything anymore and for gods sake the engine is really old make a new one already!!!

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booze925
Tuesday, August 07, 2012 @ 1:10:30 PM
Reply

Call of Duty hit its peak in Call of Duty 4.

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