Pachter Expects November Games Sales To Top $1 Billion
Once the NPD numbers are in, we may find that November was a very large month for the video game industry. Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has predicted total sales to top $1 billion for the month, and that marks an excellent year-over-year growth. "We forecast sales of $1 billion, +24% compared to last year’s $804 million,” said Pachter in an investor note according to Next-Gen.biz. The analyst thinks that $770 million of that $1 billion will come from new platform sales, with current/last-generation sales making up the rest at about $230 million.
However, we have to remember that Pachter's estimate includes 9 days of sales after Thanksgiving, compared to "only two days of sales last year." As usual, December will probably tell the true tale of the tape, especially with no new console launches this year (last year, we had the benefit of the PlayStation 3 and Wii launches in the US between November and December). Of the top software sellers in November of this year, Pachter expects titles like Super Mario Galaxy, Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare, WWE SmackDown vs. Raw 2008, Rock Band, Need For Speed ProStreet and Assassin's Creed to top the list.
As for hardware estimates, he thinks we'll see something like this when the NPD releases their findings-
- Wii - 950,000 (1,060,000)
- Xbox 360 - 750,000 (728,000)
- PS3 - 420,000 (410,000)
- PS2 - 485,000 (n/a)
- PSP - 650,000 (468,000)
- DS - 1,350,000 (1,300,000)
- GBA - 170,000 (n/a)
It's no secret that some investors are concerned about the economy (though in looking around at the shopping malls, we have difficulty understanding those concerns), but Pachter says the November numbers will help. Still, “it may take until after the holidays when concerns about the “stalled” cycle are fully alleviated, and we expect volatility for video game stocks through the remainder of the year, although we retain an upward bias." Pachter went on to say he expects to see software sales continue to rise through December and "well into 2008," thanks to a "strong release schedule early in the year." Yeah, we know what those games are, as most people do. Let's hope he's right!
12/10/2007 Ben Dutka