Pachter: PS3 Will "Kill" 360 In Japan
See Full ImageIt's common industry knowledge that Microsoft has difficulty selling hardware units in Japan, but Wedbush Morgan Securities' analyst Michael Pachter believes the situation could be more dire than we think. In fact, given the PS3's newfound momentum worldwide, he thinks the 360 might not even survive the year in Japan.
“In the US, I think it will be close all year, with 360 outselling PS3 most months due to its lower price points (at least as long as it remains lower priced),” Pachter told the Videogaming247 blog. “Sony gains a huge competitive advantage when HD monitor sales pick up at holiday, as I expect retailers to push PS3 as a Blu-ray player to anyone buying an HD monitor. By year-end, I think PS3 will outsell the 360 in the US by a little. PS3 will likely outsell the 360 in Europe by 20-40 percent, and will kill 360 in Japan.”
These comments came after Wedbush Morgan projected a monthly lead for the PS3 in the US in February plus a 27% increase in the NPD year-over-year numbers for last month. No matter what Microsoft does in Japan, it seems the 360 just can't gain a steady foothold. Certain RPGs - like Blue Dragon and the recently released Lost Odyssey - have helped, but only in the short-term; nothing has managed to provide the system with a permanent increase in popularity. And now, with Japanese gamers quickly starting to come around to the PlayStation 3 (they still love the Wii, of course), the Xbox 360 continues to get ignored. But could it get bad enough for Microsoft to actually discontinue the model in Japan...? Unlikely, but you never know.
3/10/2008 Ben Dutka
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Comments (Beta)
Warukyure [Power User]
Monday, March 10, 2008 @ 4:00:18 PM
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As far as most Japanese developers are concerned, their present state of mind does say that the PSP is the legitimate successor to the PS2.
As for the Xbox360, it will "killed" this year. Right now there are some JRPGs being developed for it, such as Tales of Vesperia and Unlimited Indiscovery or whatever. But its only a matter of time before those games go the way of Eternal Sonata. Sure Japanese developers want to go worldwide with a lot of their titles and they see that the Xbox360 is *ahead* of the PS3. But if they alienate their Home Fanbase of Japan too much by putting too many titles on a system Japan in particular doesn't like (Xbox360) they will suffer in the long run.
I wouldn't be surprised if by next year those games also get ported over to PS3. Japan knows this all too well, if they put something off long enough developers cave and port over (Tales of Symphonia PS2, and Resident Evil 4 PS2 just to name some of the games that were ported over and performed better). Companies like Square-Enix are still unsure of the Xbox360 so that hurts it as well (one of the 2 games they released on it, Project Slypheed kind of hurt it's perception of it.)
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The Cheat
Monday, March 10, 2008 @ 4:19:09 PM
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Minishmaru
Monday, March 10, 2008 @ 4:53:57 PM
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Warukyure [Power User]
Monday, March 10, 2008 @ 5:57:19 PM
In terms of localization, only a few RPGs in the early days were ever localized in North America and vice versa with FPSs. This probably due to a lack of a overall world market for video games.
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chaosrunner
Monday, March 10, 2008 @ 7:06:11 PM
There are Japanese gamers who love FPS's the same way there are Americans (like me) who can't really get into them. It's not really a surprise if you look at how different the general mindset of the two cultures are. The value systems are very different. There's also the relative youth of the US as a nation, whereas Japanese culture goes back over many, many centuries.
Another issue is that the Japanese value conformity. If your boss plays golf in Japan, you learn to play golf. In the US, we value individuality. So if the Japanese hold an image in their head that FPS's are not for the Japanese, there won't be a whole lot of crossover. Whereas in the US, we see more crossover because we have no deeply developed issues with the idea of different people liking different things.
Honestly, you could probably write a series of books on the reasons behind the FPS/RPG-USA/Japan split and still not answer all of the questions. But I think as we continue to grow into a 'global community,' we'll see more and more association based on what we like instead of where we are.
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Mystearica
Monday, March 10, 2008 @ 9:26:14 PM
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K Phantom
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Monday, March 10, 2008 @ 3:34:27 PM