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Sony: 90% Of Game Sales Online In 10 Years

You may not have noticed, but this new generation has seen the emergence of game media being offered online, in the form of both playable demos and full downloadable titles (Warhawk, for example). Well, some have been wondering if we can expect to see more online game sales in the future, and as far as one Sony exec is concerned, the answer is a definite "yes."

According to That Video Game Blog, SCE UK's Ray Maguire speculated that within the next 10 years, "90% of game sales will be online." He said as much during his speech at the ELSPA press conference, and it's bound to spark some major debate.

“We have a situation that if you’re a retailer you’re currently responsible for the goods that come through your chain,” said Maguire. “But that’s not true with ISPs in the future. This isn’t merely a games industry issue. It’s an issue for every industry with companies that have a website, and when we look at user generated content it’s a people issue.”

Microsoft has long since believed that this would happen in the industry, and they even take it a step further. Sandy Duncan actually said that “dedicated games devices i.e. consoles (and handhelds) will die [out] in the next 5 to 10 years,” which seems completely incomprehensible to us right now. However, one never knows what the future may bring, and we often forget just how far the industry has come in 30 years. At this point, isn't anything possible?

4/11/2008 Ben Dutka

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Comments (12 posts)

Warukyure [Power User]
Friday, April 11, 2008 @ 10:12:00 PM
Reply

Unless we are all going to get a ton of retro games, I don't think theres going to be that much merit to this 'guess'. In the last 10 years, games have jumped from mediums that have a capacity of 700MB to mediums with 50GB (BD-Rom). Even if only half the space in those mediums were used, imagine the size of games 10 years down the road.

Not to mention, the only way this will work is if games get shorter and shorter, a massive influx of indie games that are casual, simple, short, and worth only a few dollars, or creating games with a unified game engine in which all games will just be a layer that runs on top of it.

I think "REAL" games, will still exist on physical mediums, the Blu-Ray is still very new and in 10 years time, the 'PS4' would've only been out for maybe a year.

This model could also cause more problems such as
-server strains
-DRM
-whether we actually own the game or we can only download it a number of times
-Bandwidth limitations set by ISPs
-long Download times
-potential size of HDDs

Example:
I have around 300 (actually around 270~280) PS2 games. If those are all 1 disc each at around maybe 3.5 GB in size on average. That would mean: 300 X 3.5 GB = 1050 GB or 1.05 TB. Technically no *1* drive can store all that data.

Theoretically speaking:
Lets say someone has 100 games and by 2018 the average game size is 25GB (possibly due to the use of blu-ray as a medium in the past years).
Thats still 100 x 25GB or 2500GB/2.5TB.

Pray this doesn't model doesn't happen or we'll be shopping for new HDDs every time we want a game.

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recks1jtp
Friday, April 11, 2008 @ 10:53:29 PM

Well said, I second that.

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screw_off
Saturday, April 12, 2008 @ 12:16:13 AM
Reply

That is a very good point. You just have to think of the current hard drive space though. We went from 8mb for the PS2 removable memory cards to a 20gb internal hdd and 60gb internal, then an 80gd. Just think, In 10 years they will have possibly made a tb flash drive the size of common current flash drives. Also whith downloaded games, there is not much of a load time compaired to a disc. On the discs you have to take into consideration the fact that the "eye" has to read the game send the image to the processor then to the audio and video out puts where it is "drawn" onto the screen. BUT, with a downloaded hdd saved game, you do not have to have it read a removable disc that spins really fast where as the hdd doesn't have to load specific content right after another. On discs you have to have your long and atractive loading screens so the player doesn't get bored with the game over the loading screens, where as on hdd you don't have to worry about the loading seeing as how it is actually saved to the machine it's self. ie, get a movie that has digital copy and watch how long it takes to load it off the disc on your computer, then see how long (after you save it to your computer) it takes to load the digital copy of the same movie. Vwalla... shorter loading times ;)

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Affliction17
Saturday, April 12, 2008 @ 12:37:55 AM
Reply

I can understand that,but theres nothing like holding a hard copy of a game.I can deal with the load times,I just enjoying showing off a shelf of games.

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ThePoetRazel
Saturday, April 12, 2008 @ 3:00:10 AM
Reply

There are 2TB external HDDs for sale already. In 10 years time we may see TB becoming a standard like GB is today.
With increasing Broadband speeds, increasing popularity of internet connectivity, larger HDDs and the technical modernization of many retail stores i can see this becoming a possibility. Instead of all those discs lying around taking up space, you just have a few external HDDs for storage. Wifi can probably handle the transport to a player.
And with the physical size of current memory sticks (16GB currently available) we may even have storage capacity for media on our credit cards one day. Entire sections of stores can be replaced with an atm style machine with slots for both your credit card and your memory card or a USB port for your external HDD.
Possibilities, possibilities.
Let's just see what the future brings.

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Warukyure [Power User]
Saturday, April 12, 2008 @ 6:16:31 PM

Yes, there are 2TB EXTERNAL drives but thats actually just 2 X 1TB drives. So unless we have a PS4 the size of Media Centre HTPC's with multi-drive hot-swap arrays in RAID 0/1/5/10/50 settings, they are probably just gonna stick in 1 drive. It's also cheaper to make 1 larger physical drive than 2

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DiminishedAngel
Saturday, April 12, 2008 @ 7:47:43 AM
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10 years is like an epoch in computer terms.

10 years ago broadband 56k modems were the standard.

I definitely see downloadable games composing a large portion of the overall market but I'm not sure HDD will be the standard within 10 years.

It's possible, and TB will almost certainly be the standard storage capacity like GBs are today, but game sizes are increasing at the same pace as HD technology. Putting Metal Gear Solid 4 on my PS3 would take almost the entire hard drive. My entire collection must be 100 TB of data.

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Minishmaru
Saturday, April 12, 2008 @ 8:29:06 AM
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10 years from now?!? Come on...10 years from now we'll probably be seeing some new consoles and use the word consoles loosely cuz well who knows what could happen in 10 years. Gas will be either $10/gallon or less than $2/gallon depending on what happens. GTAX is on everyones must buy list, Snake is ALIVE but a zombie, the next portable device is the size of your credit card, ...but come on, didn't we already see polls and comments about how alot of people like getting HARD copies of their games and movies vs downloading games? I don't mind doing both but its mainly HARD copies for me. I'd say 25% online in 10 years or something like that. This is almost as bad as them predicting Alone in the Dark will sell 1-2million copies across all plats.

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Ben Dutka PSXE [Administrator]
Saturday, April 12, 2008 @ 8:20:00 PM

Infogrames is predicting Alone in the Dark to sell 2-3 million across all platforms. :)

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bamf
Saturday, April 12, 2008 @ 4:20:19 PM
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Well there's mention of game sales online and that copanoes have their own website, so could this exec be refering to physical discs being bout online from online stores? There is no mention of buying downloadable games.
I think with movies and games it is possible that you can 90% of sales through online retailers, thats what I'm doing and its cheaper.
With other products like clothes or groceries I think you need to actually see them in the shop and try clothes on.

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PaiNT_kinG
Sunday, April 13, 2008 @ 12:42:49 AM
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heres an idea,what if ur games hdd crashed or get corrupted?(now that would suck would it)

p.s.i recently purchase warhawk and while its a great game,the limited account usage suck ass,oh and i hate multiplayer games with vertical split screen with no option to go horizontal cuz u have to do alot of turning to see the field

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screw_off
Monday, April 14, 2008 @ 5:17:42 PM
Reply

they do give you back up downloads. they track your download via the internet and all your online progress is stored... what do you know... online. it would suck but only to a certain extent ie, down-time is probably all. sony takes good care of us.

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