Analyst: GTAIV Success Defined By Console Attach Rate
Everyone is always talking about Grand Theft Auto IV and how many copies it could potentially sell, but according to UBS analyst Ben Schachter, it's more about the number of sales vs. the attach rate for each console. (source- GameDaily)
After saying he expects GTAIV to sell about 6 million copies this year in the US, which will represent approximately 60% of the worldwide total, he said that ultimately, the game's success will be dictated by its attach rate.
"Investors cannot define success of the game in terms of units of GTA IV sold compared with prior GTA titles," said Schachter. "This is because the game can only be sold to consumers who own a console capable of playing the game. To that end, the success of the game is defined by the attach rate (or tie ratio) which equals the number of units sold / the installed base of applicable consoles (in this case Xbox 360 and PS3)."
In total, he thinks GTAIV could sell 10.5 million units worldwide, which would generate around $360 million in total retail sales. Of course, you can't let an analyst off the hook these days without asking about EA's quest to obtain Take-Two Interactive, and Schachter believes it will definitely happen. He said that, "at the end of the day, we continue to believe that ERTS will be able to buy TTWO in the $26-$28 range." However, it should be noted that the latest offer from EA ($26/share) expires very soon: as of Friday, midnight. As far as Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter's prediction that an EA takeover could delay GTAIV, Schachter said that is "extremely unlikely." He added- "GTA IV will almost certainly launch on time (Apr. 29) and meet/possibly exceed expectations."
Related Game(s): Grand Theft Auto IV
4/14/2008 Ben Dutka