North American PS3 Launch Shipment Halved
According to Lazard analyst Colin Sebastian, citing retail checks as a source, retailers may only see 150,000 - 200,000 PS3s for launch day on November 17. If this is true, it means we're getting less than half of what Sony planned to ship.
To help clarify the issue further, PSX Extreme contacted a GameStop manager about the issue, and he did confirm that the North American launch shipment was cut from 400,000 to 200,000, which doesn't bode well for their preorders.
Sony maintains its goals of 400,000 PS3s for launch and 1-1.2 million units shipped by the end of the year, but recently, those numbers have been called into question. Big-name publisher EA estimated last week that Sony might only provide 500-800k PS3s to North America in 2006, and Sebastian now predicts that Sony will sell about 750,000 PS3s by year's end.
Included in the rest of the report, Sebastian believes that game publishers won't rake in the next-gen big bucks right off the bat; he wrote that Lazard expects less than 15% ($350 - $400 million) of software sales to come from the Wii and PS3, with the majority of sales coming from the already-established systems like the 360, PS2, and handhelds. Hardware manufacturers, on the other hand, will certainly see a bigger financial impact once the consoles are launched.
The analyst also mentioned "recognizable" brands like EA's Madden series would "dominate" software sales at launch. Of course, Madden NFL 07 is already sitting close to the #1 slot of the most popular PS3 game preorders, and it's at #5 on the Wii list.
Lastly, Sebastian wrote-"With a disproportionate number of new consoles purchased in the launch window by "hardcore" gamers and technology first movers, we believe that new properties also have the potential to sell well."
11/15/2006 Ben Dutka