Analysts Debate: Is This The Last Console Generation?
Everyone loves to speculate and debate concerning the next generation of consoles. We've heard all sorts of predictions and they include everything from a new Xbox in 2011 to an upgraded PlayStation 3 and Wii. However, one analyst believes we've seen the last of the consoles, believe it or not.
Speaking at the GamesBeat 2009 Games Conference in San Francisco yesterday, industry analysts Michael Pachter (Wedbush Morgan), Colin Sebastian (Lazard Capital Markets) and David Cole (DFC Intelligence) weighed in with their thoughts on the next decade of gaming. Pachter believes "we've seen the last generation of consoles," as the manufacturers in question will be "more reluctant to release any subsequent consoles." (source- 1Up) We're far more likely to see a standard delivery platform, primarily because, as Pachter said, "third-party publishers aren't going to support a PS4 or Xbox 720." He cites the current issues publishers face concerning the cost of producing a game, and he adds that "content isn't going to change in any meaningful ways because the publishers can't afford it." Basically, he's saying that you had better be happy with the current console selection because you won't see new ones any time soon...if ever.
For the record, Sebastian disagreed with this theory, as he believes there will indeed be one more console generation, and it will start in 2012. Cole took Sebastian's side and also stated that the PS3 would be the leading platform by 2012, and this will cause the competition to release new consoles (the PS3 will stick). However, all three believe we won't see another PlayStation console for quite a long time; Pachter said simply, "Sony is not going to put out a console until they make a profit on this generation, and my math puts that at around 2015." Well, for our part, we're happy with the PS3; we really don't need a PS4 any time soon.
3/24/2009 Ben Dutka
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Comments (76 posts)
Troy Powers
Tuesday, March 24, 2009 @ 10:18:58 PM
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SarahPalinMILF
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 12:10:39 AM
fatelementality
Tuesday, March 24, 2009 @ 10:22:23 PM
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fatelementality
Tuesday, March 24, 2009 @ 10:23:38 PM
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bigrailer19
Tuesday, March 24, 2009 @ 10:32:12 PM
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So I agree with what Cole in the article said to an extent. I believe that M$ and/or Nintendo will have to make a console on par or better than the PS3 because it will be the leading console.
Although numbers say otherwise the PS3 is leading in my eyes, because of what it's achieved in all areas from software to the PSN. I want the PS3 to stick around I am quite happy with it and I know it can handle the competition but as time goes on and technology advances we will see a new generation.
Last edited by bigrailer19 on 3/24/2009 10:39:40 PM
Tim Speed24
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 7:17:11 AM
Gregory Freeman
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 4:36:17 PM
anyways, this guys fulla de shit... i can sware i just heared last week that production of the new xboxes graphics card, processor ect are nearing test phases, which, if the 7th gen is the grave stone of the gaming era, would be a pointless thing 2 waste money on (investing in something that will never go into production) especially in this time and date, where the us deficit is the highest its been ever...(expected 2 double by the end of obamas 8th year) when times are this tough, it must be nice to have Bill Gates backing you up... i sware, ms could build a sh!t console that breaks 33% of the time, and still have enough money to live strong... oh wait...
SerichA
Tuesday, March 24, 2009 @ 10:33:14 PM
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fatelementality
Tuesday, March 24, 2009 @ 10:41:52 PM
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Karosso
Tuesday, March 24, 2009 @ 11:02:49 PM
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HDTV is only now becoming the standard and the next generation will just look better than ever.
If anything the Wii showed us that there are other areas that can be changed to enhance the medium.
The PS3 has a long way to go and we don't need a PS4 anytime soon but to say that, it's the last... just stupid rubbish!
isaya85
Tuesday, March 24, 2009 @ 11:03:33 PM
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PSN ID Biggest_GMoney
BigTonesAUS
Tuesday, March 24, 2009 @ 11:10:57 PM
KevinCairo
Tuesday, March 24, 2009 @ 11:08:32 PM
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WorldEndsWithMe
Tuesday, March 24, 2009 @ 11:15:58 PM
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I think analysts look too far ahead and try to drag that future into the present because they are used to having information ahead of the curve, the problem is they are out of touch with what is actually going on right here and now.
SPS3
Tuesday, March 24, 2009 @ 11:31:03 PM
Last edited by SPS3 on 3/24/2009 11:32:53 PM
JasperLoons
Tuesday, March 24, 2009 @ 11:40:03 PM
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More reluctant to release subsequent consoles?
Yeah, the I'm sure the unheard of sales numbers, mostly for the Wii, has really crushed their spirits.
Third party publishers wont support them?
Yeah, that's the exact impression I've gotten from all of those developers going multi-plat...
WorldEndsWithMe
Tuesday, March 24, 2009 @ 11:47:34 PM
JasperLoons
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 12:26:53 AM
xnonsuchx
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 12:07:46 AM
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I agree there probably won't be a new console until 2012-ish (more likely Nintendo), but to make a wild guess that no more consoles will come out after 2015 is kinda ridiculous...and wholly unsupported.
Qubex
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 12:37:58 AM
Q!
"i am home"
Last edited by Qubex on 3/25/2009 12:38:21 AM
Snaaaake
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 12:48:07 AM
Qubex
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 2:23:49 AM
It is based on downloading content wirelessly via cellular networks using an IMSI identification method for each console that is network "live". There is no way to load media. All distribution is digital. Low power consumption, and much much cheaper than the current crop of consoles.
There are no moving parts in the console either, break downs should be almost non existent.
Watch, the PS4 box my just be a far more advanced version of what Zeebo offers come to think about it... digital distribution, no moving parts... plug in and go...
Q!
"i am home"
Last edited by Qubex on 3/25/2009 2:24:11 AM
karneli lll
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 12:58:08 AM
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WorldEndsWithMe
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 1:26:49 AM
jaybiv
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 1:21:33 AM
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Qubex
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 2:52:47 AM
How does he decide to buy or sell companies or shares within companies...
Whilst some analysts may get it wrong, and they often do, I think what Pratchett is saying is that consoles as we know them, in this particular configuration, may be the last of their kind...
I think any future PS or XButt console will probably be a box of some sort, but the way software is transferred to them and distributed may be very different, including the storage media used. It may be the HDTV displays, or computer displays (as we have seen already with some "PC" models) will simply have Cell type multi-core processes and a few RSX's thrown in for good measure...
Toshiba is already doing this with their next HDTV, it will have a Cell embedded in there...
What does that mean then? So there will be "consoles" but they will take a very different form... internet box or built into next generation displays...
Q!
"i am home"
jaybiv
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 1:02:09 PM
Secondly, analysts only know what they companies tell them. Sure, other companies are trying to get into the game, but that doesn't mean the gaming landscape is going to chage as dramatically as he claims.
We are 15 years into the Internet revolution and no one has found a way to blend television with the Internet. So what makes you think they can go it with video games?
Everyone is entitled to their own opinions. I would just rather hear from people who actually know what they are talking about.
dveisalive
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 2:11:28 AM
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Gregory Freeman
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 5:02:58 PM
Random_Steve
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 3:04:14 AM
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Snaaaake
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 4:31:10 AM
Ultimadesires
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 4:33:34 AM
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NoSmokingBandit
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 7:30:50 AM
We are in a recession now and some people are too short sighted to see that we will eventually bounce back and businesses will start making profits again. I am 100% certain we will see a ps4. Not as soon as the other new consoles perhpas, due to the fact that the ps3 can sustain itself much longer than the already outdated 360. The wii is different though, it doesnt require power to be fun, so maybe nintendo will go with eve more interactive controls next time around.
Fenrir
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 7:41:19 AM
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This is why those analyst might think there´s no place for the next console generation regarding this new system, but I think this is not true, because approaches on pay tv are not profitable (especially here in europe) and the internet is not made for 60mio.+ online players so far. And last but not least - I want my games in my rack and not on a server and I think that I´m not alone with my opinion. :-)
migabyte
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 8:01:31 AM
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Snaaaake
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 9:42:37 AM
And I was thinking of gettting one in 2006.......
They wanna make money with a 360 so fine we consumers don't care but.....I loathe them for making a console with dozens of problems.
If RRoD wasn't enough it now have E74 which the warranty doesn't cover.
GRRR, guess I'll never get to play GeOW and Halo 3......
migabyte
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 10:07:25 AM
Snaaaake
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 11:02:57 AM
Sorry dude, but my place here ain't got renting.....
And if you're wondering, I'm from Malaysia where piracy is a culture.
Most of my friends who owned a PS2 doesn't have a PS3 because there's no pirated Blu-Ray.
They don't own a 360 because they don't like it.
I have a PS2 but all my games are pirated because it's damn cheap, 10 times cheaper than originals.
But well just because it's cheap doesn't mean it's good all the way, you can't play online and there's a possibility the disc cannot be read so you have to buy another.
Snaaaake
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 10:46:45 AM
HOODGE
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 11:16:56 AM
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slugga_status
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 11:23:26 AM
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The wii is in its on category. So as I'm sure we'll see another xbox and a wii. I'm not so sure we'll see a PS4. They might keep upgrading the PS3 or I agree that a PS4 won't come until around 2013-2015. Which would speak volumes of the PS3.
Me personally, for all the money I've spent and likely will spend..I better not catch a PS4 so soon or I'll be too pissed.
zerostar39
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 12:43:27 PM
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seriously, how do I get that job to just make up stuff? "I'm an analyst and I think the ps7 will be a pair of glasses that beam the game right into your brain"
(actually that might be kinda cool)
WorldEndsWithMe
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 1:56:02 PM
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Deadman
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 2:39:19 PM
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smileys_007
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 3:32:59 PM
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Fenrir
Thursday, March 26, 2009 @ 9:30:18 AM
Deleted User
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 5:11:54 PM
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Last edited by n/a on 3/25/2009 5:12:47 PM
Douchebaguette
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 6:58:10 PM
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Deleted User
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 7:11:43 PM
Douchebaguette
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 7:24:29 PM
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WorldEndsWithMe
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 10:04:45 PM
pyrobomber70
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 9:45:38 PM
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WorldEndsWithMe
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 @ 10:05:33 PM
Snaaaake
Thursday, March 26, 2009 @ 5:23:30 AM
opsdaddy
Thursday, March 26, 2009 @ 11:04:39 AM
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Sure, they too have got to constantly think about what to put in their next console, where the industry is heading, etc. But I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Sony is in the driver's seat this gen. They ALONE developed a console with staying power. That places the onus on Microsoft to undergo two development cycles (current & next) to top Sony's current hardware capability. Not exactly wise, in this day and age.
It will cost Microsoft a fortune, because the 360 was developed with off-the-shelf technology that affords them no easy upgrade path. For Microsoft, a complete redesign is in order. Sony can make incremental improvements (larger HDDs, thinner, cooler microchips) in order to stay on top--an enviable place to find oneself in this fiercely competitive console war. Have faith: slow and steady wins this race, my friend... slow and steady!
opsdaddy
Thursday, March 26, 2009 @ 11:14:16 AM
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Whenever I read the unfounded, baseless, shot-in-the-dark stuff that this guy spews, I'm amazed that he actually gets paid to make his hokey predictions. He and my local weatherman should be seized under cover of darkness and taken to a re-education camp, where they would be taught to make fries for a living--you know, something useful!
556pineapple
Friday, March 27, 2009 @ 12:57:47 PM
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Last edited by 556pineapple on 3/27/2009 12:58:41 PM

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Tatsujin
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Tuesday, March 24, 2009 @ 10:16:47 PM