Analysts Debate: Is This The Last Console Generation?
Everyone loves to speculate and debate concerning the next generation of consoles. We've heard all sorts of predictions and they include everything from a new Xbox in 2011 to an upgraded PlayStation 3 and Wii. However, one analyst believes we've seen the last of the consoles, believe it or not.
Speaking at the GamesBeat 2009 Games Conference in San Francisco yesterday, industry analysts Michael Pachter (Wedbush Morgan), Colin Sebastian (Lazard Capital Markets) and David Cole (DFC Intelligence) weighed in with their thoughts on the next decade of gaming. Pachter believes "we've seen the last generation of consoles," as the manufacturers in question will be "more reluctant to release any subsequent consoles." (source- 1Up) We're far more likely to see a standard delivery platform, primarily because, as Pachter said, "third-party publishers aren't going to support a PS4 or Xbox 720." He cites the current issues publishers face concerning the cost of producing a game, and he adds that "content isn't going to change in any meaningful ways because the publishers can't afford it." Basically, he's saying that you had better be happy with the current console selection because you won't see new ones any time soon...if ever.
For the record, Sebastian disagreed with this theory, as he believes there will indeed be one more console generation, and it will start in 2012. Cole took Sebastian's side and also stated that the PS3 would be the leading platform by 2012, and this will cause the competition to release new consoles (the PS3 will stick). However, all three believe we won't see another PlayStation console for quite a long time; Pachter said simply, "Sony is not going to put out a console until they make a profit on this generation, and my math puts that at around 2015." Well, for our part, we're happy with the PS3; we really don't need a PS4 any time soon.
3/24/2009 Ben Dutka