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Analyst: Modern Warfare 2 To Be Biggest Release Of 2009

It's one thing for the maker of the product to claim it'll be huge; it's quite another when an industry analyst claims the same thing. Of course, none of us really doubt the insane sales potential of Modern Warfare 2.

Not long after Activision said the hotly anticipated sequel would be the "largest entertainment launch of 2009," Janco Partners' Mike Hickey echoed this sentiment with the analyst's latest investor's note. According to Gamasutra, Hickey says estimated sales of Modern Warfare 2 could hit 11.1 million units in 2009 alone (with only six weeks of sales), with a total of $338 million in revenue on the first day. He further predicts the title will be "the largest video game release of the year," and Janco Partners have placed a "Buy" rating on Activision Blizzard stock, with a price target of $17. The publisher is "exceedingly focused on building pre-orders, given the potential for retailer sensitivity over initial holiday buys," which makes perfect sense, considering the game's scheduled release date of November 10. Added Hickey:

"Given our CY09 sell through estimates for Modern Warfare 2, its possible that the game could be one of the largest entertainment releases of all time. If you assume similar channel unit sales velocity as GTA IV, the game could potentially sell through 7.8 million units globally with an estimated retail value of more than $569 million in the first week.

Continuing the same channel logic, its possible the game could sell through to consumers 4.6 million units globally with an estimated retail value of more than $338 million in the first day. We believe they would need 3.2 million pre-orders (1.13 mill from Europe and 2.10 mill from US) to hit 4.6 million first day unit sales."

If you toss in the fact that Activision plans to release the fifth installment in the blockbuster Guitar Hero franchise this year, along with several other promising titles, it wouldn't be out of line to conclude that Activision's stock could - and indeed should - skyrocket before the close of 2009.

Related Game(s): Modern Warfare 2

6/13/2009 Ben Dutka

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Comments (34 posts)

screw_off
Saturday, June 13, 2009 @ 10:59:10 AM
Reply

of course its gonna be the biggest title of the year. it multi platform, the "first on is still on everybodys lips, and it isn't gonna be another WWII fps. Dont get me wrong, i loved CoD:WaW, but there isn't too much more ya can do with it.

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screw_off
Saturday, June 13, 2009 @ 11:01:51 AM

Well I forgot, its gonna have some stiff competition... I, myself, am looking forward to Assassin's Creed 2...

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N a S a H
Saturday, June 13, 2009 @ 11:16:29 AM

That's a TOTALLY different type of game. You can't say that AC2 is going to affect sales of MW2.

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screw_off
Saturday, June 13, 2009 @ 11:39:38 AM

Not saying its gonna effect its sales, Im saying that it is gonna have competition for biggest title of the year. Of course it is gonna be an awesome game, but when you have as much info being shoved in your face about a game that millions loved and the other one that they are not dropping secrets left and right like like they were playing hot potato. Assassin's Creed 2 has a handful of secrets left, whereas CoD:MW2 is still very secritive, we don't know every last detail about it. AC2 is a multi platform and it will be a potientaial runner for the Game of the Year, so is CoD. You cannot say that I can't say that AC2 will not affect CoD is some way, shape, and or form. It may or may not. I never said that it would affect is sales...

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Cpt_Geez
Saturday, June 13, 2009 @ 12:14:10 PM

Its not going to even be close in sales of AC2 vs MW2. MW2 is going to blow AC2 out the water sales wise. Nobody is talking about how much AC2 is going to sale, there just saying that its going to be a awesome game. MW2 hands down no competition.

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Godslim
Saturday, June 13, 2009 @ 1:37:58 PM

I have to agree with nasah nearlly everyone i know with a ps3 brought cod4 and will all get mw2!

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mastiffchild
Saturday, June 13, 2009 @ 11:48:28 AM
Reply

It will sell like crazy but I'm not biting this time round. I see this as the proper follow up to COD4, which it is as WaW was the Treyarch team and did nothing new at all bar WW2 skins and a very average Co-op and Zombie add on. Thing is while COD4 felt really fresh and revolutionised online shooters with perks etc to be as interesting and original this time is unlikely.

TBH if it is a really new experience I might try it out but as the gameplay and controls are so well loved in most parts I just don't see it happening.

Also it's a very accessible game but that means it's very easy to be good at and nearly impossible to be great as everyone else finds it as easy as you-like football(soccer) everyone's OK but hardly anyone gets to play in the prem. In fact like Halo in many ways, imo.

These, post Warhawk and Killzone2 days I prefer a game wth a longer learning curve that rewards playes more for skill than anything else and those floaty controls feel very light and unrealistic after a short while to me after other shooters.

I realise I'm in a tiny minority and I'm not wishing to pee on anyone's chips and can see exactly why people love it but the short learning curve anmd the fact it's starting, with COD to feel like the same game every year in a differnt box(just like Halo,these days anyway, Fifa or Madden by and large)just isn't my thing.

So while the world goes mad for MW2 I'll be preparing for MAG myself for some more depth and interaction. My lone wolf days are getting old tbh and one day-after finding, by luck, THAT perfect game of TF2 where everyone knows what they're doing-I just thought that COD wasn't the game for me anymore.

Last edited by mastiffchild on 6/13/2009 11:51:20 AM

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Lemon_Saint
Saturday, June 13, 2009 @ 11:58:56 AM

Wow, I only understood half of that ... I guess you're saying you don't want the game, and want MAG instead? Fair enough.

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WorldEndsWithMe
Saturday, June 13, 2009 @ 2:41:01 PM

I got to agree with you there, but never underestimate the sheep that'll buy anything with a certain name on it. Like you said, no matter how generic it'll sell well.

That said, it looked tasty at MS's conference, but the graphics aren't any better IMO. Just nicer environs. Another look at how Multiplats have maxed themselves.

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Dooby_Scooby
Sunday, June 14, 2009 @ 5:52:57 AM

Im one of those that is actually very good in COD:WAW / COD generally, im a long time fps player on PC as well, For me coming top of the score board is nothing major..

The Reason I have begun to hate the series is simple, the controls are tight and pretty much perfect (Im a mouse and keyboard fan & the splitfish fragFXv2 is awesome for this game). The issue is the Network code, its horrendous. They use some peer2peer s**te. Then to make things worse, you can randomly become the host of the match and it employs probably the worst antilag code I have experienced.. If you become host, forget it you will just sit there and die.. Ive sat there saying wtf ?? I dont even hear getting shot and im dead or 1 bullet hits me and I die, then you watch on the replay cam and see your oppenent pummel you with bullets, at this point leave the game and low and behold host has left the game, WTF ??

I have paid £40 for your s****y game along with however many other millions of people on top of that you want me to pay £10 per map pack and you cant even employ fixed servers for us to play on ? You want us to rely on each others connections, and then employ the _worst_ antilag code imaginable which will end up punishing you if you happen to have a good ping ? Great brilliant design that..

If they use the same network code and the same anti lag crap, forget it no way will I buy it.. Resistance 2 64 players no lag Killzone 2 very rare do you experience lag (32 player).. Cod 4/5 The worst lag you can imagine..

Why should I fork over another £40, if you then force me to become the host, give me no control and then punish me for being the host.. I should have no latency as the host, so I should have the advantage, you are after all using my connection, right ?

The s***test network code and design has to go to COD, the cheapest network and s***test network design again goes to COD.

If they dont deploy fixed servers I wont buy it..

I hope MAG's controls are the same as cod because I think that will become my next purchase..

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mastiffchild
Sunday, June 14, 2009 @ 6:25:03 AM

I wasn't saying that coming top of anything is important or particularly that MAg is smething I'd ALWAYS take over MW2.

Firstly, and I have to agree wholeheartedly about the lack of dedicated servers-it's a shocker really, I was mainly talking about the controls-not on PC as I gave up PC shooters a while back as it felt like a constant upgrade battle for me(new gaming mopuse/keyboard set up, new GFX cards etc, etc)-on the two consoles being very easy to use right away. They feel way too floaty with a pad , though, after playing KZ2(and others) with better weight to them. I feel the fact that the game's easy to pick up adds to those wanting to go off camping or lone wolfing which can ruin the games meant to be played as teams when people feel they're great when they really aren't -it's just the game that's easy.

Secondly, I just don't think the splash MW made last time is possible this one. Even if I've grown tired of it now I do accept that it revolutionised console shooters in a way not seen since Halo. I don't , from the trailers and screenshots and previews see much that's very new and nothing on the scale that COD4 delivered.

I'm looking forward to Warhawk2(Starhawk?) and MAG because of, in Mags case, the way it's set up to reward true team play(esp if you want to lead)and both games because of the great communities found in the original W'hawk and Socoms-as well as the longer learning curves which mean it's sometimes needed to lean on other players til you find things clicking and then you'll find yourself helping newcomers.

As most peiople feel confident ot COD from the off I feel it hurts community as you rarely get shown any yourself. E.g- In Warhawk I was spotted noob flying so someone messaged me and arranged to teach me how to use Pro flight(totally needed to play the game really)on a private server. I've now done the ame for lots of other newcomers that would likely have given up after the first week of getting owned at the game.

Funnily enough lots of them(as I did) said they didn't get why they weren't getting the kills, even on land, as they were great at COD!

Thing is if they remedied the lone wolfing/camping and made playing as a team more likely in COD iI'd soon come back but right now the games seem like an Activision gravy train esp as they don't invest in dedicated servers. THe lag must be improved this time round as most shooters have much less these days-esp on PS3 with more dedi servers.

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Jalex
Saturday, June 13, 2009 @ 12:10:39 PM
Reply

I'm going to have to say I'm skipping this one.
Multiplayer isn't really my thing (at least, I think it far pales in comparison to a grand single-player campaign), and from what I understand, the single-player is again going to be a rather short affair, which annoys me to no end.

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dveisalive
Saturday, June 13, 2009 @ 12:13:54 PM
Reply

Towards my opinion WaW did deliver as well as COD4, but this game is going to be even f-ing crazier. Riot Shield FTW. Anyways my problem is that Activision has made the Madden Virus, when there is a new game every year. People are still buying COD4, and WaW, when MW2 comes out everyone will play it to death, then get bored and go back to the older versions, then come back and play some more MW2, then go back to it again and again.

Last edited by dveisalive on 6/13/2009 12:14:53 PM

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Naga
Saturday, June 13, 2009 @ 1:34:28 PM
Reply

It will be huge even more than Alice Extreme!!!
Regardless if it will be huge hidden inside this software lies a horrible game

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rjmacready
Saturday, June 13, 2009 @ 1:37:26 PM
Reply

I'm going to look into maybe getting some of the stock of Activision / Blizzard before November.
It's only at $12.97 a share now, and that's bound to go up with MW2 sales.

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Godslim
Saturday, June 13, 2009 @ 1:38:16 PM

UP THE IRONS!

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Geobaldi
Saturday, June 13, 2009 @ 7:44:09 PM

Just wait until Starcraft 2 and Diablo 3 come out.

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WolfCrimson
Saturday, June 13, 2009 @ 1:53:12 PM
Reply

biggest title of 2009? I thought Uncharted 2 is gonna nail that position.

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King James
Saturday, June 13, 2009 @ 2:24:44 PM

Biggest title, not the best.

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Skatejimmy5
Saturday, June 13, 2009 @ 2:16:29 PM
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I'll be boosting the pre-ordering numbers for Europe in September. :D

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Blood_Haze
Saturday, June 13, 2009 @ 2:23:21 PM
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Will this game support split screen coop?

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N a S a H
Saturday, June 13, 2009 @ 3:14:57 PM

Yeah it will.

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WorldEndsWithMe
Saturday, June 13, 2009 @ 2:37:58 PM
Reply

Still that's a hell of a projection, even if everyone wants this game I'd be surprised if they hit those kind of numbers right off the bat... maybe down the line.

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gankdol
Saturday, June 13, 2009 @ 3:04:47 PM
Reply

Hey Ben,
This hasn't much to do with this article.
I was just over at the supposedly "Best of E3" at IGN and remembered an article you did about reviews boosting game sales. Is there any way we can bring IGN representatives to our turf and at least talk to them to see if we can fix that webpage? Maybe have it be objective for once since Nintendo 64?
I know it's a complete fantasy, but I'd really enjoy a chat with some PSXExtreme guys and a couple of IGN guys. That would be amazingly fun to watch or participate in.

Just a Thought, and thanks for reading

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Ben Dutka PSXE [Administrator]
Saturday, June 13, 2009 @ 11:54:51 PM

Heh...I'm relatively certain that IGN wouldn't care about us, nor do they care how people view their reviews.

Once you reach a certain point in terms of size, the entire thing is faceless. They've got their money from ad campaigns and sponsoring and the like; they no longer rely on readers as much, and their traffic/fanbase is set in concrete. It's sad to say, but they just don't CARE.

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LegendaryWolfeh
Saturday, June 13, 2009 @ 11:44:47 PM
Reply

Lol there must be some serious FPS or CoD hate in here with all these thumbs down, haha, but either way, I've already preordered my copy, and MIGHT upgrade to the collectors edition, depending on what comes with it. Always looking to add something to my R2, SF4, RE5, and MGS4 collectors editions =D

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Godslim
Sunday, June 14, 2009 @ 10:44:56 AM

yeah i was wondering the same thing lol

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NealRad
Sunday, June 14, 2009 @ 12:53:12 AM
Reply

IDK im noy psyched about this one. modern w arfare was great. it just seems like they are trying really hard to make some crazy new type of game. and to Ben or whoever i dont remember what your last infamous post was about, but i liked it and InFamous is an overlooked game. Hulk Ultimate destruction 2 cough i mean Prototype has nothing on it.

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Deadman
Sunday, June 14, 2009 @ 8:25:22 AM
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Im really exictied about MW2 the game looks as good as the first (which was beautiful) and the multiplayer promises to be just as good also, this looks like it could achieve GOTY like the first one did.

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DGo8
Sunday, June 14, 2009 @ 8:35:40 AM
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Does anyone know if you get any bonus things if you pre-order this?? get back to me plz.

And i think this will be biggest seller of 2009!

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LegendaryWolfeh
Sunday, June 14, 2009 @ 4:14:02 PM

ATM, you get a poster signed by the Developers (just for preordering, while supplies last), but there is also supposed to be a collectors edition (it's there already) but it has no details on the extras

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shootu
Sunday, June 14, 2009 @ 4:24:58 PM
Reply

COD is all I play. The next one should be a western COD! COD has the best control. You have total control not like 3rd person shooter games. I wish GTA4 had this control I might dust it off and play it. How could you not like COD series? There is so much to do in one game! The story line single player, co-op with all the levels and zombies, online game play or play with a friend on any one of them. If you cant control your character to do what you want, what is the point of playing?? If I dont like the control of a game then it gets a BIG ZERO and gets sent back. (off topic of COD) Like NHL 09 The control was better on NHL 96 I loved that game so I thought I would try the new one and the control is gone. Anyways all shooter game should let you pick FP or 3RD. What do you think Ben?

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DGo8
Sunday, June 14, 2009 @ 5:18:08 PM
Reply

Cheerz LegendaryWolfeh

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LegendaryWolfeh
Sunday, June 14, 2009 @ 6:25:46 PM

No prob =)

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