Projection: PS3 Will Surpass 360 By January 2011?

One can interpret statistics in a variety of different ways, but in the end, it's the bottom line that matters.

According to projections by TVG Research, PlayStation 3 sales will outpace Xbox 360 sales by January 2011. You can view the estimated progression chart through the link, and the updated userbase numbers are as follows: since launching in November 2005, the 360 has sold 30.2 million units, and since its launch in November 2006, the PS3 has sold 24.6 million units, which means the rate of PS3 sales is actually faster. If the PS3 does indeed overtake the 360 in early 2011 as projected, that will mark the supposed halfway point of the PS3's 10-year lifespan (as Sony keeps insisting it is). If you factor in future price cuts, plus the arrival of the new motion sensing technologies for both systems, the sales rates may alter accordingly. For our part, we have to consider that the 360 had one whole year without any competition whatsoever, and the PS3 still had to deal with a rookie year that suffered from incessant negative press and low overall sales. Given the momentum acquired since then, and glancing down the road at the exclusive blockbusters and the obvious chance of a price cut, it's tough to disagree with TVG's estimates.

But who knows? Maybe Natal will be as popular as the Wii. Maybe the next Halo will single-handedly keep the 360 in the lead. We can't predict the future.

7/31/2009 Ben Dutka

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Comments (75 posts)

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Mornelithe
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 12:39:56 PM
Reply

I think yes, it's only a matter of time at this point. I don't know if Jan 2011 is when it'll happen, but I basically look at it like this. Sony is clearly aligning all of their cards into one, huge smorgasbord of gaming entertainment. Huge 1st party exclusives that people have either been waiting years for (GoW3, GT5), or newer IP, that have people really excited (Uncharted 2, MAG, EyePet, Demon Souls, WKC, Quantum, Heavy Rain etc...).

So, in that regard, the substance will be on the platform very very soon (Not to say it's not already been there...but you know what I mean). The Price cut for Sony, combined with their new marketing strategy/release lineup, should propel the PS3 out front as it did with MGS4. I just hope that it's a lasting effect.

And, in retrospect, I think Sony should talk to it's 1st parties, and have them pump out some more sequels to family/gamer friendly franchises that excel'd on PS2. Give the people who own(ed) a PS2 even more reason to break down and buy a PS3. (Break down..bah, they should be tripping over themselves to get one). Onimusha, Sly Cooper, Jak & Daxter, etc...

Last edited by Mornelithe on 7/31/2009 12:42:42 PM

11 up, 0 down

chucknasty
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:02:32 PM

Agree. The battle is won by having great games. I think a major annoyance of this generation is the exceedingly slow turn around time for game development coupled with everyone announcing their game years in advance. I understand great games take time but the constant delays are frustrating.
I think we are getting close to getting over the hump when there will be a steady stream of good games coming out. Too many long gaps between titles I was really interested in this year.

1 up, 0 down

bxshotboi
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:15:42 PM

you are so so right and i am dyin for a sequal to jak and daxter on the ps3 as well as sly cooper and twisted metal now that would be a hell of a game to play online with a group of strangers who all have mics

3 up, 0 down

orangpelupa
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:21:34 PM

yups, the upcoming PS3 1st party and 2nd party games is great.

but still, most wanted PS3 game i wanted to play:
the upcoming Uncharted 2
and Atelier Rorona English :) :) :) :)

need more great JRPG :)

i already have many JRPG on x360 but only 3 that good -___-

2 up, 0 down

mexgeo86
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:50:20 PM

An Onimusha title on the ps3 would be very nice...

5 up, 0 down

englishgolfer
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 12:40:53 PM
Reply

can't predict the future ben? i predict that when microsoft release natal they'll say "we've invented the motion sensor before nintendo!" it's just them.

1 up, 0 down

bxshotboi
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:11:41 PM

of course they gonna brag about their motion senser but hey microsoft is going to have a major problem with that milo thing because how many people actually speak their language correctly 100% and especially in the american version they would have to consider making changes based on all the different accents the country has

1 up, 0 down

The Stig
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 4:47:27 PM

Your right on that one bxshotboi. I know I have problems with voice recognition games like RSV2 recognising my accent, and that just uses simple pre-programed commands.

And have you ever been to the UK? Im sure the UK has more variations in accents than any other country. Crazy, for a relatively small country.

I think we are a long way from seeing something like Milo. Even the top voice recognition software wouldn't be able to do what Microsoft are claiming Milo can do at this moment in time.

Last edited by The Stig on 7/31/2009 4:51:28 PM

3 up, 0 down

WorldEndsWithMe
Saturday, August 01, 2009 @ 3:48:33 PM

Milo is for pedophiles anyway.

1 up, 0 down

Gregory Freeman
Saturday, August 01, 2009 @ 10:22:54 PM

lol it all comes down to which came first, Natal, or the playstation 2 eye toy??

i say sony invented the console motion sensing revolution before everyone else...

hell DDR was on the playstation 2 way before the eyetoy i believe, well, if you count ddr as motion sensing...

0 up, 0 down

godsman
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 12:45:24 PM
Reply

Its too hard to predict. I say the release of PS3 slim will let Sony catch up by 4 million each year. But this is assuming Xbox doesn't do anything with price or releases to retaliate.

You cant tell what project Natal will do in the market, but there's too many Wii fans that are interested in the stupid control schemes. If there are 1/5 of the Wii people upgrading to Xbox, thats 10 million extra user that PS3 needs to catch up to.

Its a battle of who can attract more casual players with the motion controls. The core gamers are us, where we bought it regardless of price.

1 up, 0 down

Mornelithe
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 12:47:24 PM

Well, to be fair, Sony's gadget is far more similar to the Wii's than Natal. If they'd jump simply for the motion sensing, it'd make sense they'd go with something they're more familiar with.

1 up, 0 down

bxshotboi
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:08:28 PM

yea natal is going to attract alot of wii users but hey most wii users already have a second system whether it be the 360 or ps3 so those numbers would be brought down by alot

1 up, 0 down

The Stig
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 4:59:52 PM

The release of the PS3's and 360's respective motion controls could, and probably will, play a big part in snapping up the casual/Wii gamers to the 'proper' next gen consoles. Its just a matter of who will have it our first, and from what I've been reading it looks like Sony's new motion tech will be released before Microsoft's. So that, along with a price cut, should work in Sony's favour in closing that gap in sales.

3 up, 0 down

Jawknee
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:01:58 PM
Reply

I've been telling my xbot friends this from the beginning. But they don't like facts. So obviously I get no where. It's like some weirdo cult following. If Bill Gates flew them down to south america and gave them koolaid I wonder how many would follow. My friend would be 1st in line.

5 up, 0 down

bxshotboi
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:06:45 PM

tell me about it i have tried so hard to convince my friends but guess what....out of my best friends only one still supports the 360 100% and one other plays the 360 to this day but only because it is modded AND he supports the ps3% along with all my other friends... all we need to do is get it through their heads the cold hard facts including the fact that microsoft has spent like a billion dollars on just rrod repairs and thats alot of money yet every1 that is a 360 head likes to point out that the ps3 loses money on each sale

1 up, 0 down

bxshotboi
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:02:16 PM
Reply

and who ever said the 360 would beat the ps3 in sales the whole way through we just need to have a little more faith in our baby(PS3)

1 up, 0 down

Hezzron
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:11:00 PM
Reply

The PS3 will beat the 360 like a rented mule. The only thing the 360 has going for it is the RRoD, cause it means the Xbots have to buy 2 systems.....one to play while the other is off getting fixed!

9 up, 1 down

bxshotboi
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:12:54 PM

my only friend that supports the 360 has already been through 5 of them so i dont know how he even bothers

3 up, 0 down

orangpelupa
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:18:13 PM

im sorry but isn't Xbox 360 since Jasper revision is already safe from RRoD?

my friends already RRoD on Falcon but their Jasper still runnning, no RRoD.

but me? im still on Falcon. i just re-heat the GPU for 10minutes when it got RRoD. it already rrod for countless time lol.

i live in a country with no official warranty >_<

Last edited by orangpelupa on 7/31/2009 1:25:13 PM

2 up, 0 down

bxshotboi
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:22:09 PM

well it is true that whole new revision helps protect the 360 but not 100% apparently since my nephew has gotten a rrod as well and besides my friend had told me there is sum error crap going around nowbut im not to sure about that 1

1 up, 0 down

bxshotboi
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:23:11 PM

and from all the ps3s i have ever played only one ever died out and i sure have played on a lot of different ps3

1 up, 0 down

Hezzron
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:29:43 PM

No 360 owner is safe from the RRoD. It's worse than swine flu.

8 up, 0 down

Mornelithe
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:32:15 PM

The Jasper models have only made them 'safer'. Not immune to a manufacturing defect. There are also other problems with the 360 as well, E-74 errors, comes to mind. These aren't made up issues, Microsoft was forced to publicly acknowledge, not only the existence, but prior awareness of these defects. Hence the class action suit that started in California (who knows where that went), and why MS tripped over themselves to offer the warranty extension.

My problem is, it's still a piece of crap. It may cost me nothing to replace should it break down...except my free time. Which is not on.

9 up, 0 down

Hezzron
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:40:03 PM

I got a 360 in January 09, only because it came bundled with the TV I wanted at Best Buy. I have no idea if it's a "Jasper" or "Falcon", but having only played through 3 games, I had to pay $5.75 to ship it off to get fixed. No actual RRoD, but it would permanently freeze up after about 3 minutes of gameplay making it useless. It is a piece of crap.

6 up, 0 down

Jawknee
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:41:20 PM

The only issues Ive noticed with the PS3 is the blue Ray Drive eventually fails. Seem to be icolated to 60gb models too. Even then you still get 2 or more years of use out of it. Unlike the xbox. Dies within a year.

Last edited by Jawknee on 7/31/2009 1:46:55 PM

5 up, 0 down

Jed
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 4:52:25 PM

Everytime Microsoft comes out with a revision they say that it is safe from RRoD, but it still keeps happening. Remember when the Elite came out?

5 up, 1 down

orangpelupa
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 8:05:01 PM

all of you still lucky to live in a country with xbox warranty -___-

in y country, xbox is very expensive thing. about 350USD.
and 350USD in my country is mean A LOT of money.
it took me 2years to have enough money to buy xbox 360.

THEN I GOT RROD IN JUST ONE YEAR !!! argh.. no warranty here.....

luckily my xbox still fixable with just new screws and heating the GPU :D :D :D

2 up, 0 down

Highlander
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:13:21 PM
Reply

Interesting how this news breaks at about the same time as the news about the 'declining sales' of PS3. Almost as if someone wanted to spin Sony's short term sales problem to obscure the fact that PS3 has sold faster than 360 since launch....Who'd do a thing like that?

6 up, 0 down

Alienange
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:14:46 PM
Reply

January 2011 ! Wow, that's soon! Of course if they were to bundle a Monster Hunter game with the price dropped slim then it'd be done by January 2010.

2 up, 0 down

bxshotboi
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:16:44 PM

we do need a monster hunter for ps3 that would do good in my opinion

2 up, 0 down

Alienange
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:17:44 PM

day one for me

2 up, 0 down

Gone
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:32:21 PM
Reply

New gamers still buy the Xbox 360? I thought the only people that buy the Xbox were people who were just replacing their busted ones.

3 up, 0 down

bxshotboi
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:37:42 PM
Reply

new gamers still buy the 360 because most of the time they cant just be patient and save up for sumting that in the long run is better or are just cheap and lets not forget how most parents rather buy their child a 200-250 dollar system instead of getting a 300-400 dollar system and in my opinion 500 dollars wasnt a bad price for the ps3 since the psp cost about 250 when it first came out and tons of people still bought it nowadays people are just concerned over price and not quality

1 up, 0 down

Jed
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 4:56:41 PM

I think most people are unaware of the advantages offered by the PS3. They see that (for the most part) the same games come out on each system, and think "why pay more?"

Also, Sony does not know how to advertise.

2 up, 0 down

phantomMenace
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:38:09 PM
Reply

I think that even with the new halo they wont get a huge 360 sales burst cause most of the people who love to play halo already have a 360. So it might be a little bump but I don't really think that the next halo will be a system seller.

1 up, 0 down

Alienange
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:50:15 PM

You could be right. I do think ODST will sell like nuts though. After the embarrassment that was Halo Wars, ODST will move people whose 360 crapped out to go buy another one.

1 up, 0 down

Jawknee
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:52:45 PM

Good gawd. I can't wait for Halo to die.

4 up, 0 down

phantomMenace
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 3:08:23 PM

i agree I liked the first one and kinda the second but I thought 3 was terrible and I think MS needs to get something new.

1 up, 0 down

bxshotboi
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 3:55:48 PM

when 2 came out for the xbox me and my friends played it everyday but it gets so boring after a while

0 up, 0 down

fluffer nutter
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:42:19 PM
Reply

I wonder if they'll ever release the numbers on how many systems were sent in to Microsoft for repairs and how many other systems were repaired at local establishments. That would be very, very interesting.

1 up, 0 down

Highlander
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:44:45 PM

I'd be more interested in knowing how many systems have ended up in landfills or the bottom of the closet, or a box in the basement. It's not the number of repairs that really matter, it's the number of people who have a dead system and a live replacement. How many of the 30 million units sold have passed on to the great used system bin in the sky?

5 up, 0 down

fluffer nutter
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 2:09:15 PM

I wasn't looking for number of repairs, per say, but number of actual systems that were submitted. They could have one system sent in for three repairs but I'm looking for number of consoles not the frequency for each unit. We'll never get the real number of broken Xbox 360s, how many units were bought because they were a replacement, etc. I can tell you this, though. I have a broken 360 behind me, that broke after about twenty hours of usage. Good thing it was free.

1 up, 0 down

RadioHeader
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 7:37:06 PM

Google this: Microsoft now receiving 2500 broken 360s per day in UK alone?
...sorry, I don't know how to do links.

I remember reading that when my third and final 360 broke. It's the day I became a raging PS3 fanboy, though I didn't yet own one. The numbers seem impossible, but on that occasion, I waited two months for a repair so who knows?

2 up, 0 down

Shatterday
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 1:51:40 PM
Reply

I just had to laugh at their line graph. Definitely an Excel default right there... thats why they make the big bucks I guess.

1 up, 0 down

cecaron
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 2:50:17 PM

The Graph looks ridiculous... Their projections even more... Looks like someone put the monthly sales in excel... ask for the trend and extended it to a 10 years lifecycle... No so rigorous if you ask me... montly sales are influenced by so many factors... pretty useless if you ask me...

0 up, 0 down

godsman
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 2:55:53 PM
Reply

Sony have been playing the defensive strategy for the past 2-3 years. This year is time to go into attack mode!

1 up, 0 down

Turbey
Saturday, August 01, 2009 @ 3:49:11 AM

I really don`t think Sony has been playing the defensive strategy. For me,it feels like Sony just plays their own games. While MS just bash everything Sony does...it`s makes me sick and it`s very unprofessional!

Though, I admit that Sony sometimes get "forced" to follow some things. But usually, they just plays their own game.

2 up, 0 down

Scarecrow
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 3:34:31 PM
Reply

Gran Turismo 5

6 up, 0 down

www
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 3:46:17 PM

Uncharted Among Thieves
God of War III
Heavy Rain

5 up, 0 down

bxshotboi
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 3:58:25 PM

im actually waiting for a star ocean port to add to my collection even though i heard it wasnt so great

2 up, 1 down

www
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 3:45:11 PM
Reply

Its possible but MS won't just sit there either.

This is why i don't fully support a universal console cause, its competition like this that is responsible for the pending Natal and Ps3 Motion plus all those future PS3 exclusives.
If the Wii didn't do so well,do you think we woulda had PS3 Motion & Natal coming this early?
I'm sure both Sony & Microsoft woulda integrated that in the PS4 & 720 respectively, thanks to Nintendo, we're having it on these current consoles.

Honestly i thank MS & the Xbox 360 for making Sony work hard and i thank Sony & the PlayStation 3 for making MS work hard and lastly i thank Nintendo for making both of'em work harder.

6 up, 0 down

LightShow
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 3:48:43 PM
Reply

i think most everyone who wants a 360 has one.

i have a lot of friends who busted thru their third (or more) 360 and decided to invest the cash M$ gave them to get a new one in a ps3. They say that while the network needs a bit of polish, the machine hasnt let them down.

1 up, 0 down

bxshotboi
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 4:01:25 PM

yea the psn could be better espicially with the maximum number of friends cuz im already maxed out... and the recent players section isnt even supported by all games yet they really need to work on that and finally bring sum voice chat party into play cause the text chat is so so wack

1 up, 0 down

photo K
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 4:58:15 PM
Reply

i have an 360 and it sits there collecting dust ever since RRoD. I'm scared to play it.

But by 2011, wouldn't xbox720 or whatever they plan to call it be introduced?

1 up, 0 down

KuNI
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 7:23:02 PM

Probably not because they're just about to release Natal, So 360s lifespan will most likely be similar to ps3. Microsoft might release a new xbox with some extras and natal built in though.

1 up, 0 down

StevieRV
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 5:01:58 PM
Reply

that price cut is needed, my mate owns a 360 and said he wanted to get a ps3 just for MAG, but it too damn expensive so is going to pass

1 up, 0 down

Deleted User
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 5:09:23 PM
Reply

i burnt thourgh 4 Xbox 360's in order
system 1 arcade. had it for a year then the next year two weeks before xmas it dead. the next day got a ps3 80gb systeme. then i got the xbox 360 pro for my b-day take a gusse what happen 6 month later yep rrod again. then i got a 360 elite 3 month later E74. all this time my ps3 is still running. just a couple months ago i decided give M$ another when i got elite but just yesterday during around of HALO 3 it died. so this afternoon i took a slugehammer and smashed it

6 up, 0 down

KuNI
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 7:26:07 PM

You probably could of sold your elite for a reasonable price. People know how to fix them... not when they've been smashed to bits with a sledgehammer though :/

6 up, 0 down

Luan
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 5:10:31 PM
Reply

haha, I've always thought the PS3 would be profitable by beginning 2010...guess I was slightly off...

1 up, 0 down

BTNwarrior
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 6:07:41 PM
Reply

And yet If I search google news for ps3 I'll probably find an article describing how the ps3 is in a downward spiral that will ultimately lead to the death of sony as a company

3 up, 0 down

orangpelupa
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 7:57:55 PM

because google is showing cached result.
so the info usually utdated for a few days

1 up, 0 down

Danny007
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 6:21:49 PM
Reply

It already is surpassing the 360

3 up, 0 down

KuNI
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 7:05:30 PM

I think they're talking about overall sales.

2 up, 0 down

JMO_INDY
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 7:52:00 PM
Reply

Yay!! Sony knows what there doing, how do u think they outsold the obviously more powerful X-Box with the PS2. Its just good old fashioned business techniques. Glad to hear it.

3 up, 0 down

SkantDragon
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 8:20:22 PM
Reply

I especially love the comments from Xbox guys that go like: "They said 2007 would be the year of the PS3. And then 2008. And then 2009. Every year is supposed to be the year of the PS3! Ha ha! And it never happens!"

And I think that's pretty hilarious that these guys really aren't paying attention to what has already happened.

I still hear people saying the PS3 has no games, too.

Xbox got a huge head start by releasing a year earlier... and more than half of that head start has evaporated.

Do you suppose Microsoft keeps hurling money at buying exclusives because the PS3 is dead in the water like Microsoft's fans think?

4 up, 0 down

bxshotboi
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 9:27:12 PM

microsoft is going to continue to try and get as many exclusives as possible just to increase the sales of their system in a way its cheating and in a way thats just how business is with game consoles

2 up, 0 down

tes37
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 9:13:08 PM
Reply

The PS3 has already surpassed the 360 thingamajig.

In quality that is.

Last edited by tes37 on 7/31/2009 9:14:59 PM

3 up, 0 down

Snaaaake
Friday, July 31, 2009 @ 10:55:12 PM
Reply

No Halo can keep the 360 up......
ALL Halo fans have a 360 now so no use anymore releasing Halo.

3 up, 0 down

___________
Saturday, August 01, 2009 @ 3:29:40 AM
Reply

if they keep releasing quality titles and bloody MARKET their games, than i dont see why not.
but they have to market there games, honestly people dont even know the ps3 exist because the lack of advertisement.
and they need to localize there games faster, have worldwide release dates for there exclusives, if activision can do it why not sony.
if they do those verry simple things they should overtake the 360.
but i can see a new M$ console by 2011 so they wont be enjoying the lead for to long.

1 up, 0 down

WorldEndsWithMe
Saturday, August 01, 2009 @ 4:09:50 PM
Reply

It sad when people cling to a sinking ship, I can't think of a single xbox exclusive that I want.

2 up, 0 down

___________
Sunday, August 02, 2009 @ 9:16:51 AM

gears 2?
thats the best shooter ive played so far.
the enemies vary, the weapons are really cool.
the tactics you use in the game is always changing.
thats what i wanted in KZ2.
basically in KZ2 all you do is cover and shoot.
but do that in gears 2 and you will get your a$$ handed to you.
and come on being eaten by a massive worm than killing it buy slicing its arteries.
now thats bad ass

0 up, 1 down

OriginalSin
Monday, August 03, 2009 @ 8:08:33 AM
Reply

Those are two different games you chop... Gears 2 (Third person shooter), KZ2 (First person shooter)not really a good comparison if you ask me. It's better comparing two of the same type of game together. So let's way up Gears 2 to Uncharted 2 instead and then see how they measure up....

0 up, 0 down

___________
Wednesday, August 05, 2009 @ 6:46:10 AM

so by your logic, you cant compare gears 2 to uncharted 2 because ones a platformer and ones a TPS.
you should compare uncharted 2 to ratchet and clank there both TPS and both platformers.
anyway how does U2 compare to gears 2.
just because they both have guns and are in 3rd person.
ones a bad a$$ game ripping things apart.
and ones a refined story driven game.
might aswell compare apples to pears, sure their both fruit but there completely different.
you would be better off comparing quantum theory to gears 2, both have guns both are TPS both have that bad a$$ tough guy feel to them.

Last edited by ___________ on 8/5/2009 6:51:27 AM

0 up, 0 down

___________
Wednesday, August 05, 2009 @ 6:44:13 AM
Reply

what does it have to do with the genre?
what so a feature from say a platforming game cant be added to a FPS.
get real.

0 up, 0 down

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