Carmack: PS4 May Hit Shelves First, Optical Drive In Question
Most people agree that the next generation of consoles is still a ways off, especially in regards to Sony. They have often said the PlayStation 3 has a 10-year lifespan and we're less than 3 years in...but this hasn't stopped speculation on the PS4.
id Software's Technical Director John Carmack says that although the next PlayStation machine isn't exactly around the corner, he believes Sony may want to be the first to market. This would be in an effort to get the jump on Microsoft and Nintendo, as they did back in 2000 when they launched the PS2 a full year ahead of the Xbox and GameCube. In an interview with MCV, Carmack said:
"The whole jockeying for who's going to release the first next-gen console is very interesting and pretty divorced from the technical side of things. Whether Sony wants to jump the gun to prevent the same sort of 360 lag from happening to them again seems likely."
He went on to say that he'd like to see the current generation "stretch as long as possible," probably so they - as developers - have more time to become accustomed to the hardware. But he also brought up another point, and it's one that analysts and journalists have been debating since the advent of digital downloads: might the next round of consoles be without an optical disc drive for physical media? Might they simply operate entirely off digital downloads? Well, Carmack believes that at least one of them will:
"I think there's a decent chance that one of the next-gen consoles will be without optical media. The uptake rates of people who have broadband connects surprised everyone this generation. It's higher than what the core publishers and even the first party people expected."
Well, that may be, but I still want my game collection. You know, the one I can see and touch. The one with box art; the tangible thing I can point to and say, "that's mine. That's years and years of collecting." But hey, I'm old-school. I guess new gamers have no interest in that type of thing.
8/11/2009 Ben Dutka
Put this on your webpage or blog:
Email this to a friend
Follow PSX Extreme on Twitter
Comments (120 posts)
LowKey
Wednesday, August 12, 2009 @ 12:42:32 AM
mexgeo86
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 11:07:52 AM
Reply
PS3addict
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 11:14:16 AM
Yeah the issue with only didgital media wil also have problems with recovery as well. I do not want to recover 500gb of data if my HDD dies. There are also ISP's that charge you additional fees if you go over your max bandwidth.
Last edited by PS3addict on 8/11/2009 11:14:59 AM
mexgeo86
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 11:20:45 AM
jaybiv
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 11:53:09 AM
nath08
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 12:06:05 PM
Bagmup
Wednesday, August 12, 2009 @ 2:39:03 AM
Dancemachine55
Wednesday, August 12, 2009 @ 5:43:08 AM
yak4life85
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 11:10:56 AM
Reply
bOnEs
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 11:19:02 AM
Reply
Last edited by bOnEs on 8/11/2009 11:20:10 AM
kevinater321
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 11:20:26 AM
Reply
jaybiv
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 12:06:11 PM
WorldEndsWithMe
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 1:21:13 PM
You see, that is a foreplay I can truly enjoy ;)
sunspider13
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 3:01:34 PM
I don't mind buying digital games like Ratchet Quest for Booty and the like, but full games? Nah wouldn't do it. I'm still looking for games for my PS and PS2 collection. It would be a sad day for gamers if and when for that happens.
ThePearlJamer
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 12:20:29 PM
migabyte
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 8:36:23 PM
SkantDragon
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 11:25:07 AM
Reply
Most people are not technogeeks living in a place like Silicon Valley. Arguments about digital downloads tend to include the merits of it for technically oriented people only... and it's questionable even then. But for all the people who aren't technical...
Anyone who wants to argue that downloads are about to take over should try making a list of the complete number of steps necessary to go from opening your brand new PS3 box to playing your first downloaded PSN game.
It's _A LOT_ of steps. And it takes a lot of time and technical knowledge. And there's a lot of potential difficulties when setting it up, too. In fact, most customers are probably not technically savvy enough to do it without help. They have to call their technically oriented friends to help out.
And then think about that versus taking the PS3 out of its box, plugging it in, putting a Blu-ray in the drive, and just playing.
Imagi
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 11:47:02 AM
Steps..
1:) Buy console,
2:) plug into TV, sound system etc..
3:) Turn on
4:) Internet access selection wizard (Access point/cat5)
5:) Enter existing account details or create a new account
6:) Download game
7:) Play
jaybiv
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 12:10:07 PM
Add to the fact that so many things can go wrong before a digital download can run, as a consumer, I wouldn't want to waste my time and energy on it. I'd rather go to the store, buy a disc and pop it in. That's just me.
ShadowRunner
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 12:50:33 PM
WorldEndsWithMe
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 1:25:24 PM
Imagi
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 2:53:47 PM
Connection speed is a separate issue and am sure would be part or the requirements so it would be the consumers problem. for example, it is not the manufactures problem if you buy a TV and have no TV signal coverage in your area.
Almost all of today's routers/gateway devices have upnp, dynamic ports or similar. IP6 may even be the standard at such a time, either way getting connected is getting easier everyday, so in a few years even a complete technophobe shouldn't break a sweat.
Besides everyone here managed to get their PS3's online, their much of a difference?
oldmike
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 4:24:42 PM
SkantDragon
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 9:02:02 PM
Break it down to the level of button pushes and menu selections. What you've listed as only three 'steps' is actually a great many steps.
Think, for instance, of how many button presses it takes on a PS3 controller just to type in your account name.
Imagi
Wednesday, August 12, 2009 @ 2:18:41 AM
A download only system in inevitable, it may be 10, 20 or 50 years away, but it will arrive. The Nintendo Dsi with DSiWare is a good example of such a thing happening now.
Ogibillm
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 11:32:39 AM
Reply
but i don't think that's what will drive us away from an optical media. flash memory is getting cheaper and cheaper. i think we may actually see a move (likely by nintendo) back to cartridges.
so you could buy your online and download, or purchase it at your local game retailer already loaded up on a flash drive ready to be installed on you machine's hard drive.
WorldEndsWithMe
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 1:28:12 PM
Imagi
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 11:33:27 AM
Reply
I have always prefered physical media for my games, I hold back from buying any new downloadable game now from PSN just because I have bought titles in the past, only to realise within the first minute of playing it that it is not for me (their should be a timed refund period i.e 24hrs after installation when no demo exists).
Downloadable versions of games is inevitable we will likely see games available in stores and on-line initially just like Warhawk did (though it was cheaper to buy a physical copy in stores than online ...wtf..).
Games publishers would like to go all downloadable as it stops the used games market, stops piracy and cuts the game medium production costs, I think we the consumer will be the one that looses out though.
Last edited by Imagi on 8/11/2009 11:39:07 AM
Baconator101
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 11:38:11 AM
Reply
newchef
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 11:43:14 AM
Reply
Highlander
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 11:55:10 AM
Reply
If PS4 arrives in the shorter term Carmack is thinking, I'm thinking that it'd be a new Cell chip that's several times more powerful than the current one, sufficiently powerful to handle real time ray tracing work. To meet an accelerated timeline, I'd bet on an uprated RSX that maintains backwards compatibility, but uses wider buses. Since memory is relatively cheap, and Sony is aware of the memory issues that have led to criticism of the PS3 I'd imagine that a PS4 produced in the short rather than long term would include at least 4GB of XDR and at least 512MB of GDDR3 for the GPU. Other than that, I'd expect the PS3 would remain relatively unchanged.
I'll tell you what though, the roadmap IBM has/had for Cell results in a very powerful chip in about 2012. A game console with one of those babies and an evolved RSX would be very, very nice. Remember that the console only has to push 1080p images at most, so an evolved RSX design with more memory (HDR lighting and FSAA/AF) would be more than capable enough. If the new Cell could handle real time ray tracing at 1080 resolutions with the GPU to help apply full screen effects, you'd have a beast.
I have to believe that a long term replacement for PS3 would follow similar lines since doing otherwise scraps the entire investment of the PS3 generation, as well as the compatibility with PS3 generation development. There has been a lot of talk that Sony would select Intel's parallel processing Larrabee chip as their future GPU, and they could do that. A combination of the next Cell BE and Larrabee would be very powerful with regards to physics engines and the requirements of real time ray tracing.
Sony are a smart enough organization to recognize the importance of BOTH digital distribution and physical distribution, especially with regards to in-home video game consoles. Not everyone has broadband, and not all that do have it, have good broadband. So moving exclusively to digital distribution is not possible yet, you exclude too many potential consumers. Besides, they are a major player in BluRay, which isn't going to disappear any time in the next 10-20 years. Not only that, but BluRay can be extended by adding layers, and existing players can be updated by firmware to play quad layer discs, perhaps more. Optical discs are therefore still a very good option for Sony.
JMO_INDY
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 12:11:40 PM
jaybiv
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 12:15:55 PM
I wouldn't be surprised to see something towards the end of 2010/early 2011.
Highlander
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 1:09:04 PM
The most recent IBM roadmap for the Cell (at least the most recent one anyone's actually seen) calls for a Cell with 4PPUs and 32SPU/SPEs. Since we already know that there have been considerable enhancements to the Double precision performance of the SPEs with the PowerCell CPU, as well as enhancements to the single precision performance, we can expect to see something in excess of 5 times the current performance coming from that future Cell chip, at the same clock speed. It'll also have the ability to switch to a compatibility mode for existing Cell applications.
JMO_INDY
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 1:20:26 PM
WorldEndsWithMe
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 1:35:33 PM
Highlander
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 1:53:08 PM
mexgeo86
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 3:06:27 PM
Highlander
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 12:14:18 PM
Bandwidth caps are common in other countries and some parts of the US have them also. Many consumers don't even have a broadband link, and many that do have access speeds that are in the 1-2Mbit/second range which is simply not quick enough to deliver significant amounts of digital media.
JMO_INDY
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 12:27:08 PM
The Stig
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 2:16:46 PM
JMO_INDY
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 2:19:21 PM
bridgera
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 2:23:11 PM
Highlander
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 2:37:21 PM
bridgera
Wednesday, August 12, 2009 @ 9:17:22 PM
My position is that "open your eyes" implies that he somehow had his eyes shut and that he was unwilling to accept how anyone else's situation could be different than his own, but that was not at all the case, he acknowledged people were in different situations and wanted more information, so he asked a question.
You may not have intended to talk down to that guy, but that's how it seemed to come off.
The world would be a much better place if people would just answer other people's questions without talking down to those asking.
nath08
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 12:11:29 PM
Reply
WorldEndsWithMe
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 1:37:34 PM
mexgeo86
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 3:09:35 PM
NoSmokingBandit
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 12:44:43 PM
Reply
JMO_INDY
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 12:47:43 PM
Highlander
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 1:15:56 PM
Actually I'd double check that speed by going to DSLreports (.com) and running some speed checks. Most home routers run at 100Mbits/second, it's the most common speed. You may be seeing the speed of your ethernet connection being reported and not your Internet.
NoSmokingBandit
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 1:48:46 PM
Although everyone else kinda beat me to it, i had most of this typed out before i realized it, lol. Ethernet cards are built with 10/100 or 10/100/1000 Mbit support. That just means that your card maxes out at 100Mb/s, not that your connection is that fast. A 100Mb connection would be equal to about 12Megabytes/Second, which is insanely fast.
JMO_INDY
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 2:06:14 PM
JMO_INDY
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 2:09:09 PM
Last edited by JMO_INDY on 8/11/2009 2:11:08 PM
Highlander
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 2:45:02 PM
Your fiber connection should be super fast in multi-player games, I bet you never lag.
JMO_INDY
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 2:56:01 PM
CONTRABAND
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 6:33:29 PM
Thrill Kill
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 1:09:39 PM
Reply
JMO_INDY
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 1:13:15 PM
Highlander
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 1:16:29 PM
JMO_INDY
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 1:30:00 PM
WorldEndsWithMe
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 1:39:44 PM
CONTRABAND
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 6:32:02 PM
WorldEndsWithMe
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 1:45:31 PM
Reply
Every time I get booted offline during a download, even though it continues later, the download is corrupt and won't install.
There are plenty more reasons why an optical drive is necessary so Carmack needs to get out of his tech bubble where everything is set up to work perfectly 24 hours a day and take a look at the crap service a lot of us get (I'm looking at you Comcast) And yeah, STOP talking about a PS4 right now.
Qubex
Wednesday, August 12, 2009 @ 1:21:28 AM
The premium part my come with "storage" so your collection is always available but stored centrally. It already is anyway, because you can always go to your "downloads" and "download" software or demos you may want to re-install...
Whatever happens, we will all have to get used to giga bytes upon giga bytes of media in the future...
Q!
"i am home"
Thrill Kill
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 2:30:52 PM
Reply
Thrill Kill
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 2:32:40 PM
WorldEndsWithMe
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 3:21:16 PM
www
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 4:05:28 PM
Reply
Reccaman18
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 5:40:18 PM
Reply
Xodiak
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 6:31:31 PM
Reply
CONTRABAND
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 6:32:12 PM
Reply
Fane1024
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 7:53:25 PM
Jed
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 6:47:27 PM
Reply
I don't think Sony or anyone else would like to drop all that functionality. Besides, it's not like we can't have both.
Ricochet
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 7:36:59 PM
Reply
But continuing on to this topic, I think John Carmack is underestimating the potential of disc media. Point being is that the games get larger and larger, the internet connection - unfortunately - do not upgrade as quickly.
MGS4, Killzone 2, possibly Uncharted 2 and future games are utilizing dual-layer Blu-ray discs (you'd think a single-layer would've sufficed). Now unless you want your console running 24/7 for about a month before you get your game than this is the future for you. Even if the next gen consoles uses the "optical" broadband, you're most likely going to reduce the download time by 70%.
John Carmack doesn't also seem to get the idea that there are already 400GB Blu-ray discs that can be read through a simple update on the Blu-Ray players/PS3. Ironically his upcoming game RAGE, supposedly takes way too much space, and if he really wanted to promote such an idea he would make the game an "available-download....on-Steam." Such out-dated thinking concept may have worked on the previous console generation. Oh wait, he has the same mindset as the 360 fanboys unaccepting of futuristic media.
It's not whether a user wants a physical media or not but rather how the media can be brought to them CONVENIENTLY. And soft-copied media concept have just been thrown out the window.
Unless of course he's thinking that the future consoles will utilize similar service like Gaikai or Onlive. If you can remember the size of the OnLive console.... no need to continue from there.
All in all Blu-Ray is the natural enemy to downloadable games as the capacity does not balance the potential of the broadband nowadays. Maybe the PS4/PSQuad/PSDelta will utilize 400GB and god forbid 1TB Blu-ray discs. And the way the internet connection pace is going it's not fast enough to keep up.
Just my two cents.
Last edited by Ricochet on 8/11/2009 7:38:38 PM
Ben Dutka PSXE [Administrator]
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 9:05:28 PM
Reply
dveisalive
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 9:30:33 PM
Reply
BigBoss4ever
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 10:13:01 PM
Reply
if this is old school, then i say probably most of us on this site are old school, which is the best of gaming era.
p.s. I dont need a PS4 now, let alone a digital PS4. I need quality PS3 JRPG and Action/Adventures, mass produce those.
Last edited by BigBoss4ever on 8/11/2009 10:18:37 PM
556pineapple
Wednesday, August 12, 2009 @ 12:40:29 AM
Reply
Ben Dutka PSXE [Administrator]
Wednesday, August 12, 2009 @ 12:56:11 AM
Reply
___________
Wednesday, August 12, 2009 @ 4:13:56 AM
Reply
making the psp go download only was a massive mistake.
unless there planing to release them in minimum 5 years time the games are far to large to download, the smallest ps3 game ive found to download is 12GBs thats almost my download usage gone on 1 game.
and download speeds are far to slow, it took me 75 minutes to download the batman AA demo and thats 1.4GBs imagine how long 12GBs would take.
and thats with my new router im getting a higher download rate now, i dont even want to imagine how long it would of taken with my old one.
5 years time yea ok i can believe that and it should be feasible the tech should be up to speed but anything before that forget it.
but i cant see this ever becoming a reality.
i think streaming will take place of downloading games like onlive.
why download a whole game wasting hours when you can get onlive turn the thing on and be playing the game in minutes no download no waiting no lag just switch and play.
thats the future of games, why download them when you can stream them and get the same quality.
Byakko2009
Wednesday, August 12, 2009 @ 6:21:20 AM
The "future of gaming" in my opinion, will have both options available. Not just because some of us prefer physical media, but because there are too many questions that don't have definite answers. I'm sure a digital downloadable world is every third-party publishers dream as it would cut their costs tremendously. Again though, it just doesn't seem feasible as we have too many homes without quality broadband connections. I just can't picture the average joe gamer downloading Call of Duty 6 with today's broadband.
Highlander
Wednesday, August 12, 2009 @ 2:35:46 PM
It's a very smart approach - IMHO.
Dancemachine55
Wednesday, August 12, 2009 @ 6:01:17 AM
Reply
- Mass Effect on 360 as digital download
- $99.95 (or 60 for the US)
- 6.9 GB
- Here in Aus, I have 12 gig monthly limit
So, why the hell should I have to blow more than half my DL limit for the month and pay more than twice as much for a digital download of a game?!?!?! It really is stupid to go digital only.
I'm fine with both physical media and digital downloads being available, but the first machine to go download only for ALL games, even the big 50 gig size games like MGS4, are going to be the first machine to die.
REMEMBER!!!! I live in Australia, and many like me do not have net capabilities like Japan or US. Small arcade games are fine as DL only, but full big budget games MUST remain on disc in order to sell.
The day that Sony goes digital only for the Playstation home console will be the day I lose hope in Sony and move to Nintendo as my primary gaming console.
KoldStrejke
Wednesday, August 12, 2009 @ 11:42:52 AM
Reply
KoldStrejke
Wednesday, August 12, 2009 @ 11:46:46 AM
Reply
___________
Thursday, August 13, 2009 @ 8:50:26 AM
Ultimate_Balla
Wednesday, August 12, 2009 @ 1:17:57 PM
Reply
dveisalive
Wednesday, August 12, 2009 @ 8:15:09 PM
Reply
wiiplay
Saturday, August 15, 2009 @ 12:34:32 PM
Reply
I do not want a console to be downloads only!
For people without credit cards, and for people with slow, or no internet connection, it would make the console completely useless!
And what abut our music CDs? How are we going to put our huge collection of music onto our next generation consoles? A digital download service?
Well, that would be stupid! If I have to pay to download the CD I have owned for 10 years, well, I just wouldn't do it!
Anyways, if this ends up to be true, no more video games for me! (Cries)
They would lose a whole bunch of users who do not have credit cards!
And if the next generation of video games still uses hard drives, then we would be limited to how many games we can buy! Doesn't matter if I have a 500GB hard drive, or a 4TB hard drive! Eventually, no matter what I do, the space will be gone, and the games will be gone!
But what happens if we use "Cloud Gaming"?
We still need a credit card, and last time I checked, not every single person who owns a PS3 has a credit card!
So it is completely pointless, and I will not be buying the PS4 if it uses downloadable only! (I'm not buying the PSP Go neither, because it would only serve as a paper weight)
And the best part is! No one is ever going to see my comment because this article is a couple days old!
LastHour
Saturday, August 15, 2009 @ 1:41:34 PM
Reply
I have a higher end cable connection. It's pretty fast, and I like it. I only ever lag over PSN or Xbox Live if I'm doing some massive download of like the N64 GoodSet or something. But it's still WAY too slow for downloading games, let alone PlayStation 3 games. When I first got my PlayStation 3, I got LittleBigPlanet (amazing game BTW, makes me wonder why I didn't get a PS3 sooner) I spent like 30 minutes just downloading and installing patches. That's a lot of time for me when I just bought a game on the disc (sorry, but that's where Xbox Live has PSN, one patch, one time. Other than that, they're both great.)
You also have to realize that faster connections might come sooner than we realize. Remember a few years ago, your connection back in like 2004 or 05. Think about how long it would take to download a game like Crysis or Far Cry 2. Now, we can download it in a few hours. Compare that to the days it would have taken if we were to do that with a slower DSL connection.
Still, I do like holding the game in my hands. Nothing beats the smell of fresh instruction book! I support optical media all the way. DVD, BD-ROM, hell, even cartridge, I don't care, I just like to hold the game, in my hands, something that, like someone said, I can claim as -mine-.
Also, I will be buying a PSP Go! because I like the way it looks, it will fit better in my pocket (not that the 1000 fit badly, but I always worried about breaking it when I sat down). I don't like the whole downloadable games thing, but they're PSP games, and they break very easily, so it works there. Also nice how they're keeping the 3000, for people who have no connection or more commonly, no wireless connection. But the version of LittleBigPlanet PSP I download better cost at least 15 bucks less than the UMD version.
Last edited by LastHour on 8/15/2009 1:45:25 PM
SirLoin of Beef
Saturday, August 15, 2009 @ 6:52:06 PM
Reply
Personally, I'd rather have the game on a disc. It just feels more secure to have it physically there, just in case something happens to the storage medium and an entire library can be nuked.
CptGreedle
Saturday, August 15, 2009 @ 11:37:38 PM
Reply
It is not a good idea to think all people will want to give up their existing library, the new HD format, their older movie formats, and the promise of tangible goods just cause you think it is cool and that lots of people have high speed internet. No. We all want these things. We want our Blu-ray and DVD movies, we want our PS1, PS2, and PS3 games, we want the stability of an optical drive, we want the ability to hold and collect our products, and not to worry that a simple system crash will not only delete our saved games, but also all our games themselves.
Physical Media all the way!

See Full Image









Hezzron
Reply
Tuesday, August 11, 2009 @ 11:03:36 AM