Digital Retail To Outstrip Traditional Sales In Three Years?
See Full ImageWe're not the biggest fans of this gradual shift towards digital format for video games, but whether we like it or not, it's happening. And as it turns out, game companies are either unaware of the impending inevitability or are simply behind in preparing for that change.
This according to claims that will be made by keynote speakers at the London Games Conference on October 27 (as reported by IGN). Perhaps surprisingly, the statistics show that digital distribution will "outstrip traditional retail sales within three years" and yet, about 40% of game companies are "unprepared for the rate at which this shift will take place." This will be a major topic at the conference and is bound to become a hot subject in the gaming community as well. Parker Consulting's Nick Parker will give a presentation that shows the digital mapping over the next few years, and that by 2013 or 2014, both Sony and Microsoft will have released their next-gen consoles. Hence, from next year on, he claims that standard box product sales will begin to fall off in favor of the digital format. "For the first time ever, the games industry has a way of alleviating the pain that traditionally befalls it during generational decline, through online gaming in its many guises," said Parker. Yeah, the Internet really is changing the way we do things.
The question is, are these claims accurate? Will the shift to digital media really be this fast? Maybe it simply won't matter from a consumer standpoint; they'll just accept it. Right?
10/7/2009 9:20:03 PM John Shepard
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Comments (45 posts)
archs13
Thursday, October 08, 2009 @ 6:56:14 PM
0 up, 0 down
Gone
Wednesday, October 07, 2009 @ 10:20:01 PM
Reply
Last edited by Gone on 10/7/2009 10:25:45 PM
9 up, 1 down
SnipeySnake
Wednesday, October 07, 2009 @ 10:26:58 PM
3 up, 1 down
Akuma07
Thursday, October 08, 2009 @ 12:40:09 AM
the shift to digital media, shouldnt happen, not for decades.
technology isnt advanced enough yet to no just sustain it, but make it profitable.
for example, there are a large number of people who own PS3s but do not have an online account, some cant afford it, or some just dont have access to it, companies would be shutting out a VAST percentage of their consumer base.
plus i doubt very much that retailers would like it at all, physical media is the basis behind companies such as EB games and gamestop, they would go out of business if that happened.
also the cost of the console itself would dramatically increase, because retailers would need to make a marginally higher profit from it.
Last edited by Akuma07 on 10/8/2009 12:42:10 AM
4 up, 0 down
Orvisman
Thursday, October 08, 2009 @ 8:54:05 AM
With Verizon Fios now, and Comcast cable before that, both broadband, I just get an upload/download speed.
As far as I can recall, I don't think the model you mention has been SOP since the dial-up days. I could be wrong though. I'm sure there might be areas in the U.S. that don't have access to broadband yet or it might be too expensive.
BTW, I just renewed my Fios contract for another two years and my speed went to 25/15 from 20/5; so, I'm happy.
0 up, 0 down
Lemon_Saint
Thursday, October 08, 2009 @ 12:05:45 PM
Actually, in my Comcast contract , it states that there is a 200GB cap per month. Some places are as low as 90 GB, while others don't have a cap at all ... it all depends on the usage in your area and how congested the lines get.
0 up, 0 down
LegendaryWolfeh
Wednesday, October 07, 2009 @ 10:21:05 PM
Reply
4 up, 1 down
Wage SLAVES
Wednesday, October 07, 2009 @ 10:39:47 PM
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PSN is, however, a bit of a Trojan horse of sorts to incrementally have us trust DLC.
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stone1979
Wednesday, October 07, 2009 @ 10:47:34 PM
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There are still many parts of the world that don't have the internet infrastructure to sustain full game downloads by everyone (or they don't offer the speed to do this efficiently)
Games are already maxing out Blueray disc's!!! I expect they will only get larger by the next generation. For me, that means 2-4 days to download a game.......and I don't think my internet speed is going to go up anytime soon.
So while digital versions may become more popular, they will never replace the physical disc anytime soon. It would be sales suicide to do so.
Last edited by stone1979 on 10/7/2009 10:48:36 PM
5 up, 0 down
LegendaryWolfeh
Wednesday, October 07, 2009 @ 11:28:41 PM
1 up, 0 down
Hezzron
Wednesday, October 07, 2009 @ 11:26:14 PM
Reply
3 up, 2 down
Russell Burrows
Wednesday, October 07, 2009 @ 11:28:00 PM
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Lets see now ten PS3 blu ray games equals a 500 GB download.
So its NOT going to happen anytime soon.
Survey says...........
Corporate morons.
Survey says...........
Corporate idiots.
2 up, 2 down
LegendaryWolfeh
Wednesday, October 07, 2009 @ 11:30:45 PM
But i entirely agree, DD will just not work, it's not accessible unless the world just gets together and makes online services for everyone.
1 up, 1 down
Wage SLAVES
Wednesday, October 07, 2009 @ 11:58:00 PM
2 up, 1 down
Squirreldriver
Wednesday, October 07, 2009 @ 11:33:34 PM
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The US simply doesn't have the infrastructure in place for large downloads. What about the poor suckers that have a d/l cap? Half a Blu-Ray and you're done for the month.
Think the ISP's are just gonna say "Oh, no problem at all! We'll give you 50mb/s for the same price we're raping er, charging you now for your crappy 3mb/s!"
5 up, 0 down
Russell Burrows
Wednesday, October 07, 2009 @ 11:40:20 PM
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A lot of the World has 1 megabit to three megabit internet service and lets not even mention the huge amount of humanity to whom internet is still spelled dialup.
I sometimes wonder about corporate surveys and then I remember those lines from that movie where the motel patron was very upset about the terrible service and asks
What kind of idiots do you have working here?
And the response was
The best idiots that we can hire right now
3 up, 0 down
Squirreldriver
Wednesday, October 07, 2009 @ 11:40:32 PM
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100 mb?! Holy crap man, do you have the internets in your basement or what?
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LegendaryWolfeh
Thursday, October 08, 2009 @ 12:20:23 AM
0 up, 1 down
SkantDragon
Wednesday, October 07, 2009 @ 11:41:47 PM
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These guys are pushing an agenda. Companies that have something to gain by a push to digital downloads keep crying out that it's going to happen suddenly any minute now.
It's not. Digital distribution is growing over time. It's still a fledgling sort of thing. Just look at how wildly pricing and policies vary. That whole market is still struggling to find itself.
It will continue to grow. And that's the way it will be.
It just not going to become the dominant medium in only 3 years... if it ever does.
2 up, 0 down
Oyashiro
Wednesday, October 07, 2009 @ 11:52:34 PM
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Nick Parker, you sir are a complete idiot! The day Digital will overtake Physical is the day that Digital download are released at a lower price point then ther Physical counterparts. Something that wont happen for a long time(Aside from the occasional sale.) No one wants to be the first to piss off retailers by undercutting them.
Then we have the blatant fact that the internet infrastructure of... well almost every where is completely out of date and not capable of competently handling large downloads. You know when a lot of people are using Sony servers at once when updates for games come out. How many people get stuck updating games/firmware for 2+ hours even when that update was only about 10MB large... Now think about that for a 10GB game!
I give it 15 to 20 years at the least. I bet the next gen of systems will still use physical media.
2 up, 1 down
Jawknee
Thursday, October 08, 2009 @ 12:23:07 AM
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0 up, 0 down
The CEO
Thursday, October 08, 2009 @ 1:01:00 AM
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1 up, 0 down
Gogaku
Thursday, October 08, 2009 @ 8:34:18 AM
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Qubex
Thursday, October 08, 2009 @ 1:08:17 AM
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The future is all about handling data transfer, data management on a large scale as everything goes digital. Once internal/external and total storage space catch up and cross a threshold the importance of buying and storing your physical media will reduce... again, as I have always said here, for many a year... it is just a matter of time... and the change is beginning now...
Also, have any of you seen/read information on the CELL-based 50inch television released by Toshiba... the TV comes with 3 terrabytes of storage as standard allowing the user to record about 25-30 hours of HD 1080p media in total... always on tap. The CELL is used to show 8 HD streams of media on the screen at the same time...
So remember; in the next 5 years, things will be different; buying games will be different... and physical media will be on its way out... whether anyone likes it or not... its the trend... it cannot be stopped!
Q!
"i am home"
0 up, 1 down
Xbox_Killer
Thursday, October 08, 2009 @ 1:11:48 AM
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0 up, 0 down
___________
Thursday, October 08, 2009 @ 1:35:38 AM
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ive said it once, twice and 3 times but what the hell.
most people dont have a large enough download limit to surf the net and go about their bisness without going over their download limit as it is.
like me.
i still have not downloaded the last 3 epps of qore, fat princess, shatter,Zombie apocalypse and god knows what other PSN games i want to play.
theres so much crap i want to download but cant because of my download limit.
all those videos released at gamescom and TGS i still have not been able to watch.
secondly most people dont have a fast enough net connection.
it took me what 96 BLOOMIN! hours to download 3.5GB mag update.
if it takes 96 bloomin hours to download 3.5GBs imagine what 20+ GBs will take.
90% of people i know are stuck with cable like me because there is not enough copper under the ground to carry a ADSL2+ signal to their house.
so were stuffed thats why i have such a low download limit.
i could have 80GBs instead of 15 if i could get ADSL2+ but i cant.
IF a miracle happens and a MASSIVE IF! the gov of each country decides to shell out the cash and replace all the copper with fiber optics.
THEN and only THEN will full download distribution be plausible.
because then every living thing on this planet will have access to ADSL2+ speeds.
till then DD is dead in the water.
a pipe dream just like 3D TVs.
Sony would love this though.
im starting to think their working for a ISP or something.
every single fu**ing time i turn on my ps3 theres a update i have to download.
every fu**ing time.
i sware to god if you want to get everything out of the ps3 you have to have a unlimited download limit its driving me insane.
0 up, 0 down
Qubex
Thursday, October 08, 2009 @ 3:23:37 AM
Q!
"i am home"
0 up, 0 down
JMO_INDY
Thursday, October 08, 2009 @ 6:14:37 AM
0 up, 0 down
Imagi
Thursday, October 08, 2009 @ 1:44:08 AM
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0 up, 0 down
ChronowerX_GT
Thursday, October 08, 2009 @ 5:22:33 AM
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0 up, 0 down
Ricochet
Thursday, October 08, 2009 @ 6:45:57 AM
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Face it, by the time we reach 2012 - 2014 games would've surpassed 40GB limit, the PS3 may need to pull out their multi-layered Blu-ray disc pretty early. (I don't know about the 360 and their multi-disc issues)
Not to mention the internet connection on a worldwide base are not balanced to promote the digital download format. Getting a wi-fi not to mention super-high speed broadband.
All in all, I'm not totally against this concept but it's not practical. Not unless we have a mass upgrade where we can connect to the internet anywhere and EVERYWHERE in the world with super-high speed connections.
Either that, or games will stick to the 9GB storage format....
1 up, 0 down
A2K78
Thursday, October 08, 2009 @ 9:25:04 AM
Reply
People(including developers) like to make the claim that digital retail is the next best thing, however they aren't telling you the full truth.
First of all consumers want a physical product because in the end a physical product can acquire value under certain circumstances. Why do you think 10+year old saturn games like PD:Saga or Radiant Silvergun are fetching for twice to three times as much as your typical PS3 or 360 title these? Its not the fact that these games are rare, but their legacy.
Another reason why digital retail is pointless...you're ultimately screwing over a certain consumer base and yourself. These game developers who are living in a fairytale land and seem to believe that everybody have the means of downloading a 1-9 gig title...the truth is that luxury isn't avaiable to anybody. Look a title like Shadow Complex for example, its a shame the game is download-only because I'm sure there are some 360 owners out there who would love to buy game, but due to spudity of the developers these gamers are denied the game. In the end the developer is not only screwed over those consumers over, they screwed over themselves.
In the end digital retail is a pipe dream that would ultimately fail and we're now seeing the signs.
1 up, 0 down
A2K78
Thursday, October 08, 2009 @ 9:25:12 AM
Reply
People(including developers) like to make the claim that digital retail is the next best thing, however they aren't telling you the full truth.
First of all consumers want a physical product because in the end a physical product can acquire value under certain circumstances. Why do you think 10+year old saturn games like PD:Saga or Radiant Silvergun are fetching for twice to three times as much as your typical PS3 or 360 title these? Its not the fact that these games are rare, but their legacy.
Another reason why digital retail is pointless...you're ultimately screwing over a certain consumer base and yourself. These game developers who are living in a fairytale land and seem to believe that everybody have the means of downloading a 1-9 gig title...the truth is that luxury isn't avaiable to anybody. Look a title like Shadow Complex for example, its a shame the game is download-only because I'm sure there are some 360 owners out there who would love to buy game, but due to spudity of the developers these gamers are denied the game. In the end the developer is not only screwed over those consumers over, they screwed over themselves.
In the end digital retail is a pipe dream that would ultimately fail and we're now seeing the signs.
0 up, 0 down
kreate
Thursday, October 08, 2009 @ 12:31:20 PM
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companies need to at least give us the option to pay the extra couple bucks to get the physical media in mail if we purchase the digital version of a game.
buying digital goods are not "buying to own". its more like "paying to play", if u know what i mean.
1 up, 1 down
Bo0mKiiD
Thursday, October 08, 2009 @ 1:01:57 PM
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0 up, 1 down
JackC8
Thursday, October 08, 2009 @ 2:16:27 PM
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CptGreedle
Thursday, October 08, 2009 @ 4:25:59 PM
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Blu-ray movies are up to 50GB, and to get that full quality audio and sound as well as the extra content, it would not be feasible to download it. The same is true with games. Right now, the best games are approaching 50GB. Both Uncharted 2 and Metal Gear Solid 4 have dual layer Blu-ray discs, something the XBOX and Wii can't compete with. And while the 360 still uses DVDs for their games, it is undeniable that this limits their capacity for information, not to mention the transfer rate for Blu-ray is much higher.
Finally, the internet itself is NOT ready for this massive amount of traffic, neither is the consumer. Already ISPs are charging premium prices for people who exceed their bandwidth limits, which is a common occurrence for users who download a lot of movies. Most people don't even have access to high speed internet yet, and especially not in other countries. The internet is not able to handle this kind of activity yet, and it will take at least a decade for it to catch up to speed with the rate that people are going. Gamers who have broadband will take more than 3 years to become the majority enough to sustain this kind of statement. It is foolish to think that just because the most advanced of us are ready to move onto more advanced things, that everyone else is as well. Sure I can download movies and games on my system, but I know several people who can not.
For the foreseeable future, Blu-ray movies and games will continue to dominate the market, and will continue to grow in popularity, while downoad-able games will gain popularity and momentum, but will still take a long time to out-perform physical media. Maybe PSP games will go completely online, but those tend to be much smaller in size than a Blu-ray.
The day the average person can download a 50GB file onto their computer or PS3 in less than an hour, is the day I believe physical media is over.
1 up, 0 down
slayerkillemall
Friday, October 09, 2009 @ 12:03:12 AM
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I will NEVER give up my physical media NEVER.
I Rather Stop playing games or whatever it is PERIOD.
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PaiNT_kinG
Friday, October 09, 2009 @ 4:48:20 AM
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SAY NO TO CHANGE,ANTI-DIGITAL FORMAT =)
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BikerSaint
Friday, November 06, 2009 @ 10:02:41 PM
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I mean it.....JUST SAY NO!
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cLoudou
Reply
Wednesday, October 07, 2009 @ 10:15:38 PM