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Analyst Expects PS3 To Rise In 2010, Wii And 360 Will Decline

It doesn't take long for analysts to look at the year before us and make their annual predictions.

For 2010, one firm believes the only console to see an increase will be the PlayStation 3. Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian thinks the Wii will be hit hard this year, suffering a 20% decline in sales, while the Xbox 360 will remain mostly stagnant, ultimately dropping 5% in overall unit sales. The PS3? He thinks we'll see a 10% increase, which is statistically significant in direct comparison to the competition. This according to IndustryGamers, where Sebastian is quoted as saying:

"For the year, we are currently modeling a 10% increase in PS3 unit sales, Xbox 360 unit sales down 5%, and a 20% decline in Nintendo Wii unit sales. There is upside potential to our estimates with further hardware price reductions. At this point, we expect the console-installed base to increase by roughly 25% to 70 million units, and above the 57 million console units installed of the last generation platforms at the end of 2005."

Back in 2007, it was difficult to conceive of a time when the PS3 would represent the lone upward swing in hardware sales for one full year. But as we all found in 2009, this industry tends to thrive on momentum swings and for now, Sony and the PS3 are hogging all that momentum. How many Game of the Year Awards and nominations did PS3 exclusives secure last year...? And with Blu-Ray/HD entertainment becoming ever more popular, the PS3 is kinda like the cat's pajamas right about now.

1/6/2010 9:06:03 PM John Shepard

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Comments (68 posts)

tes37
Wednesday, January 06, 2010 @ 9:30:38 PM
Reply

The more Sony sells, the more exclusives we'll likely see for the ps3. I'm hoping for an increase above 10% in console sales.

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St_Jimmy
Wednesday, January 06, 2010 @ 9:55:38 PM
Reply

Whats the point of Analysts? i could of told you something along those lines.

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Scarecrow
Wednesday, January 06, 2010 @ 9:59:31 PM

They need to make up "jobs" so that people can "fill them"

it's all based on the fact that there's too many people and not enough jobs

Anyway, analysts are crap, pure and simple
They're just there to try and INFLUENCE everything.

Just like the bastards pushing a recession on us

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SvenMD
Wednesday, January 06, 2010 @ 10:29:34 PM

They're kinda like meteorologists. They know some stuff about a particular topic and then just make suggestions and projections...but if they're wrong, it really doesn't matter. They really aren't held accountable and no one gets fired. It sounds like a great gig.

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Qubex
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 2:17:19 AM

Lol SvenMD... just like bankers!

Q!

"i am home"

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Hawkeye
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 9:13:02 AM

I wonder how closely these analysts' predictions were to reality for 2009 or 2008. If they have a good track record I might be inclined to give them a listen, otherwise I think they're just polishing their crystal balls for the new year.

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MyWorstNightmar
Wednesday, January 06, 2010 @ 9:56:52 PM
Reply

Hard to keep selling Wii's when they don't break and most everybody that wants one has one already.

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MyWorstNightmar
Wednesday, January 06, 2010 @ 9:59:51 PM

Although the Wii had a huge holiday season, thanks in large part to New Super Mario. And thanks to Christmas.

What the analysts don't take into account is what they can't predict. Will the Xbox yet again lower their price?

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Cholo Gamer
Wednesday, January 06, 2010 @ 10:23:40 PM

@MyWorstNightmar
Yeah I don't think M$ could afford doing that. They have already lost up to 3 bil. dollars for the RROD, and I think they're losing money on each unit they sell.

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Kowhoho
Wednesday, January 06, 2010 @ 10:50:25 PM

Now that's something you don't hear often. I've read tons of articles talking about the ps3's hardware manufacturing costs but I know nothing of the costs of the Xbaux. Do you have a source?

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Cholo Gamer
Wednesday, January 06, 2010 @ 11:47:47 PM

@Kowhoho
That's why I said "I think" Im not sure.

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IronFace2
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 4:09:56 AM

Xbox is going down... What kind of a next gen console is that when it just cant handle next gen games... Bunch of bullcrap.
DIE XBOX!!!

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Nickjcal
Wednesday, January 06, 2010 @ 10:04:30 PM
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Well i think its safe to say that the ps3 is they system to have now. 2010s gnna b a great year for gaming, but terrible for wallets hahaha. Im already buying Army of Two, MAG and Alien vs Predator within this month and january. I am waiting to see reviews on Dark Void

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MyWorstNightmar
Wednesday, January 06, 2010 @ 10:07:30 PM

So many big titles, so little time...

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Jed
Wednesday, January 06, 2010 @ 10:45:38 PM

March is going to be a blessing, and a curse.

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St_Jimmy
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 8:35:56 AM

well said jed.

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Bo0mKiiD
Wednesday, January 06, 2010 @ 10:05:42 PM
Reply

Sony's CES conference this year was a bit boring. They barely touched games, mostly 3D, cameras and sales. I think their building suspense for something magnificent.

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artson1966
Wednesday, January 06, 2010 @ 10:09:29 PM
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Hard to see the 360 arcade getting any lower as we all know they are losing more money then sony is on each unit sold... i do see a sony price drop next fall though with teh cost dropping every 6 months or so it is possible for them to drop another 50 bucks ans still be profitable on each unit sold...Sony could really put a monkey in MS's wagon if they drop to 199.99 next fall....if that happens I perdict another big year for Sony not only in sales but it would probally over take MS's market share....With this last price cut alone and even with MS cutting it's price we still gained almost 2 million units on them in 4 months....as of now Sony continues to gain 150k to 200k each week World wide on MS...the big seller is still the WII and i understand why... a recent article has stated that the wii is really attracting the female gamers seeing that 52% wii owners are female.. which was nintendos game plan to begin with.. i remember an interview with nintendos ceo saying that and using his own family as an example stating his wife wouldnt play any games until the wii game along...

Last edited by artson1966 on 1/6/2010 10:14:49 PM

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godsman
Wednesday, January 06, 2010 @ 10:39:13 PM

It's possible to dream, but Sony won't drop again in 1 year, especially when they are in good shape. It took almost 2 years for the PS3 to cut back $100 in a smaller form factor.

Why would Sony sell for less if people want the machine? Wii saw a pricecut because sales were declining, they were pressured. If any company have a choice they would sell them for $1000.

The Xbox 360 has potential to drop another $100 bucks. They are losing money, but they make $50 each year from 10 million+ subscription. They can easily take a lost and rip the gamers off in hardware somewhere else, like wireless or harddrive.

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Jed
Wednesday, January 06, 2010 @ 10:48:43 PM

@Godsman

Ripping people off on accessories is what Microsoft does best.

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fluffer nutter
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 1:59:38 AM

Actually, taking ideas from other companies OS's and then making them "theirs" is what Microsoft does best. ;)

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Sir Shak
Wednesday, January 06, 2010 @ 10:12:56 PM
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Analysts = stupid people

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SnipeySnake
Wednesday, January 06, 2010 @ 10:13:01 PM
Reply

Theres gonna be a new zelda for the wii this year though.

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MyWorstNightmar
Wednesday, January 06, 2010 @ 10:18:12 PM

Sweet. And Super Mario Galaxy 2.

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carl0975
Wednesday, January 06, 2010 @ 10:24:09 PM

Damn, I always hate missing out on new zelda titles

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MyWorstNightmar
Wednesday, January 06, 2010 @ 11:30:37 PM

carl0975, you TOO can own a shiny new Wii, for the wee price of $199.99, plus applicable taxes.

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Alienange
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 1:38:38 AM

Zelda? Wow, haven't heard that name in four years.

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johnld
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 2:35:11 AM

never really got into mario galaxy, i have/played it and wasnt as hooked as the new super mario bros wii. mario galaxy didnt really draw me in. I still havent finished it and i got 100% for the new mario game in under a week.

as for the new zelda, bring it on, as long as waggle isnt mandatory. i bought twilight princess on the gamecube instead of the gamecube 1.5 because i prefer relaxing while playing a zelda game than swinging the damn wiimote around.

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Jawknee
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 9:45:19 AM

Alienage, actually there's been plently Zelda releases. Three in four years. 2006, 2007, 2009 and now a new one this year possibly(DS releases are just as good) How often should they come out? Once a year like Call of Duty?

Last edited by Jawknee on 1/7/2010 9:53:44 AM

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Jawknee
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 10:06:18 AM

Johnld, I actually liked the Wii version better. I played them both. Only I didn't like was that Link was right handed in the Wii version. He's tradionLly left handed abs so am I to it was a tad awkward. I can't wait to see what they do with Wiimotion Plus in the new Zelda.

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LowKey
Wednesday, January 06, 2010 @ 10:25:16 PM
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But umm, I would think that by now, pretty much everyone who is going to get a 360 has one. So of course 360 sales are going to seem like its declining while PS3 sales soar. But, I think lack of exclusives will definately have some impact as well.

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Jed
Wednesday, January 06, 2010 @ 10:50:19 PM

Remember, you have to account for all of the arcade units they sell to people with RRoD.

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MyWorstNightmar
Wednesday, January 06, 2010 @ 11:42:06 PM

I think a lot of kids that have Wii's are getting older, and they want another console. A lot of them will buy 360's cuz they are cheaper (arcade), and they are not educated enough to know it is the wrong console to buy. All they know is HALO HALO HALO!

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godsman
Wednesday, January 06, 2010 @ 10:32:01 PM
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It gets tricky when it comes to these analysts. Is it 2010, ending Fiscal Year March 2010? or March 2011? Sony said they will sell 13 million consoles by march 2010.

Are these percentages in US alone? or worldwide? Cause analysts usually talk US only like they are the center of the world.

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fooosie
Wednesday, January 06, 2010 @ 11:00:11 PM
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How much $$ is microsoft losing per unit?

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Kangasfwa
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 12:30:35 AM

Bah. Whatever amount microsoft is losing on each console they make up for it with live subscriptions and overpriced hard drives.

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Alienange
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 1:42:13 AM

$100 for a 60gig. Does anyone else on this planet even sell 60gb hdd anymore? It's like a sick joke. Oh! But you can get a wireless N adapter, because everyone has a wireless N router...

For another 100 bux of course.

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___________
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 12:16:46 AM
Reply

meh, ive been saying that the wiis going to drop like a brick since the beginning of last year.
the wiis a fad, it was only a matter of time till people wake up and realize that.
kinda like the IPhone it came out and everyone had to get one, it was considered uncool not to have one.
now its the opposite, its considered seriously uncool to own one because everyone else does.
i cant take a walk down the street without seeing 1 person with a iphone.
steve jobs must be laughing himself sick, now google think they can jump in and steal apples fire?
HA! GOOD LUCK!

anyway back to the wii.
i remember from release to 08 they were flying off the shelf, no store could keep any of them in stock.
every unit they would get in would be for a preorder.
now its the other way around, EB, JBHIFI and game are all out of ps3s till the end of the month.
i went looking for one today because a friend finally wants to get one, meh i told him he should of bought it last year.
the wii is a fad, it flies off the shelf selling like undies till everyone wakes up and the fad wares off.
if they had some new IPs than maybe they could hold up the steam slightly, but theres none.
well one or 2 here and there like deadspace extraction, mad world or the conduit but very few.
thats the only thing holding me back from buying a wii.
everythings mario this, lugigi that, pokemon this, and zelda that.
they have just taken series from the 64 days released sequels on the wii.
i mean come on how many pokemon, mario and zelda games do we need?
sequels to well known IPs are all good and dandy but you need some new IPs to keep it fresh. something the wii and more so the PSP are severely lacking.

Last edited by ___________ on 1/7/2010 12:20:39 AM

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MyWorstNightmar
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 12:45:58 AM

________, I like how you say Mario and Zelda are being dragged from the 64 days. Ok youngin', they are being dragged from the NES days.

Now, if the Mario and Zelda games that come out sucked, then I would agree with you. But dude, they are great titles every time they are released. The developers never rest on their laurels, they bring it with each release.

And as for a fad? Don't agree with you. Supply has caught up to demand, but demand for anything can't continue on the pace the Wii was on. They just sold another 3 million in the US alone this holiday season. Their pace is slowing, but come on, 3 million is still great.

Last edited by MyWorstNightmar on 1/7/2010 12:46:46 AM

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Alienange
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 1:52:41 AM

"everythings mario this, lugigi that, pokemon this, and zelda that."

Only now did we get a second Mario game and there's only one Zelda game. That Pokemon thing they released for the Wii is an absolute insult and barely even a game if you don't have Diamond or Pearl for your DS.

So no, everything is NOT Mario, Luigi, Pokemon or Zelda. The Wii is an electronic workout machine.

Last edited by Alienange on 1/7/2010 1:53:42 AM

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___________
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 6:52:21 AM

eh i did not say there bad games.
i said its fine to release sequels to well known IPs as long as you release some great new IPs.
there not doing that.
therefor there not giving me a reason to buy a wii.
i love mario cart and the new mario brothers wii game, but i dont love them enough to blow 400 bucks on a wii just so i can play them.

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LowKey
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 9:29:26 AM

Actually stores couldn't keep them in stock this boxing day either, Nintendo is still going strong. I went to Brampton to visit a friend and not a single store had a Wii available in the entire Greater Toronto Area all the way up to Guelph. I applaud Nintendo, for a "casual" gaming system theyre still giving Sony a run for their money. Kudos.

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Robochic
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 12:17:09 AM
Reply

Not sure how much they are loosing per unit but I've heard from my friends at the call centre it is alot due to the RROD issues

PS3 well I've proven all my friends wrong who told me that Sony couldn't pull it off with the PS3 well they were wrong weren't they.

Wii I can see little change unless they actually bring out Zelda (new) and Super mario Galaxy 2 out this year but they haven't really had much press on either games.

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MyWorstNightmar
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 12:53:22 AM

I think all thought is on New Super Mario right now.

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dante_zero
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 12:18:26 AM
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well last i hear Sony's are on for there target of 13 million ps3's sold by end of finscal 2010. ( march this year).

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jaybiv
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 1:37:19 AM
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Wow! I remember all the doomsday predictions that Sony was dead and the PS3 was an expensive paperweight. Now what a difference a year makes.

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Scarecrow
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 1:38:40 AM

With Japan and Europe on their side that was NEVER going to happen in the first place.

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johnld
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 2:41:45 AM

there are still ps3 doomsday articles coming out and i just read one a few weeks back from this idiot "writer" who clearly had no idea what their doing. Here the title and it goes downhill from here, "final fantasy is sony's last hope for the ps3." I dont even know how these writers get jobs if they dont know all the facts. I even read one article, dont remember where exactly, it said that the 360 is the ultimate machine because it has a huge online community, amazing game library, BLURAY, AND WIRELESS/WIFI BUILT IN. and it was an article why the 360 is a better value than the ps3,lol.

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Snaaaake
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 4:10:15 AM

Google 10 reasons why the PS3 is failing and you'll see a place that was once a battlefield.

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Snaaaake
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 3:37:06 AM
Reply

Should we be surprised?

Microsoft will lose because they released a piece of trash and now 360 owners aren't getting any new and great exclusives.

Yes yes, Bayonetta is superior on the 360, and Gamespot gave the 360 version a 9.0 while the PS3 version got a 8.0 which means Sega didn't repair the game for the NA version.

Because Microsft know they'll lose in terms of game titles so they had to focus everything on Natal to steal customers from Wii.

But really, if you're a 360-only owner, will you be happy if you're not getting some good exclusive?

Does Microsoft even think of their customers?

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Oxvial
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 4:10:47 AM

funny thing the typical xbox fanbase don't give a f**k about Japanese games like bayo but lately its getting hyped like da best action game ever (yeah best than GoW3 even if its still unreleased so wtf!?!?) .

and almost all site talk about how superior its on the 360.

Last edited by Oxvial on 1/7/2010 4:11:14 AM

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Snaaaake
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 5:28:19 AM

Maybe because the PS3 is rising so they decided to use this chance to blast it down a little?

Anyway, I'm not very happy bout Sega not fixing the problems in the game, I wouldn't mind a minor frame rate problem but if it's major then I'm gonna be pissed.

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Oxvial
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 5:53:16 AM

Sad but ...USA version = Japan version.

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Snaaaake
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 5:58:25 AM

True true, and this is gonna be my first and last game from Platinum Game.

I'm buying Bayonetta because I enjoyed the demo.

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Vivi_Gamer
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 4:21:24 AM
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with the PS3's early line up this year i'm not suprised. Cant say ive heard anything from the Wii since Super Mario Land, There wasnt much in form of exclusives for the 360 either in 09.

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www
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 5:45:10 AM

Perfectly said my friend.

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www
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 5:46:18 AM
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The PS3 sales will inevitably rise simply cause of the upcoming exclusives, duh! analysts!!!

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JackC8
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 8:02:27 AM
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When they had the price cuts, and the PS3 went up 500% in sales, while the Xbox went up, what was it, 7% or 17%? And then right back down the following week, while the PS3 has continued it strong sales, it was pretty obvious what the future had in store. I see Xbox games coming out, and the xbots talk about them like they're the greatest thing ever, and a couple weeks later nobody's talking about them at all. Then GOTY voting starts and they get 1%. I see PS3 exclusives come out and people are still excited about them months later, and the only surprise with GOTY is than one PS3 exclusive won instead of the other.

Ahhh...it's nice owning the shiny black box.

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Qubex
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 9:27:40 AM
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Been playing MAG beta... have to say it will surely help PS3 sales...

Engine is good... 1080p with fantastic occlusion and smog effects... again shows that multi-plat engines (in general) suffer from the lack of optimisation.

Q!

"i am home"

Last edited by Qubex on 1/7/2010 9:29:29 AM

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gumbi
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 9:38:50 AM
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Well... the Wii HAS to slow down at some point. There's just no way anything can maintain that kind of pace. I mean, there's only so many people in the world right?... and I still don't get how it's sold so much. Although, I overheard my mother in law saying she wants one... I guess that explains it eh.

As far as the 360 is concerned. Well, jumping the gun will always give you a head start, but if the race is long enough the prize stallion is bound to outrun you.

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Jawknee
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 9:57:29 AM
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Blue Ray just got bigger too. Playstation will be in the lead soon.

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Casual Friday
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 10:42:41 AM
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I hate it when analysts throw out ambiguous numbers without any context. This guy says that he expects the total console install base to reach 70 million units. Considering that the Wii by itself has sold almost that many worldwide, I am pretty sure that all his numbers are for the American market only.

So what do his percentages mean in real numbers? Well from what I could find, in the USA last year the Wii sold over 9 million units, the 360 about 5.3 million units and the PS3 about 4.7 million.

Following his estimates that would mean that he expects this year the Wii will sell about 7.2 million, the PS3 about 5.2 million and the 360 about 5 million. This would be pretty significant because it would be the first 12 month period that the PS3 would have outsold the 360.

While this is good news for Sony, I'm still a little hesitant to say that the tide has completely turned. For one thing no one ever mentions in their estimates that the reason that the PS3 is having consistant year over year sales growth is because the previous years sales have sucked so bad and that the new numbers are just bringing sales up to where they should have been years ago.

Secondly, it appears that the 360 outsold the PS3 in both of the previous two months during the holiday shopping season. Next week's NPD numbers should confirm this but I would have expected the opposite, especially after the Slim release and price cut.

Thirdly, if Sony has designes on catching the 360 install base this generation than outselling it by only two hundred thousand units a year is not going to cut it.

Finally, these numbers show that the Wii is currently at such a high sales level that even with a 20 percent drop it will still outsell either of the other two by 2 million units (almost 40 percent).

I would agree that the PS3's future is brighter than it has ever been, but if we are looking for it to translate into sales that dominate the competition it's just not there.

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Qubex
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 11:59:29 AM
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Lets remember that both the Wii and Xbot are both hackable and have a strong homebrew scene. This alone and competitive pricing will always be attractive to prospective buyers...

Q!

"i am home"

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Scarecrow
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 1:06:34 PM
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We need a Crash Bandicoot title for ps3...

C'mon Sony, buy the rights to Crash from Universal! >:|

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NULL
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 1:57:19 PM
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fantastic news I hope they release it with the practiacaly announced Final Fantasy remake. I get very bored of this news ever week.

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napoleon85
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 4:12:19 PM
Reply



Last edited by napoleon85 on 1/7/2010 4:17:14 PM

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MyWorstNightmar
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 4:35:15 PM

Interesting take.

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Banky A
Thursday, January 07, 2010 @ 11:50:20 PM

Hahaha.

*Proper LOL, thanks for that*

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