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Analysts Forecast Console Race Until 2010

Analysts from the SFG Research firm have just released two charts that forecast 4 years of sales in the next-gen console race. The charts start from 2006 and end with 2010. The prediction is that by 2008 the PS3 will lead in hardware sales worldwide, but will not be able to dethrone the X360 as the leader in the North American region.

More interestingly is that the firm contests that the Nintendo Wii will soon show a sharp drop in sales. Whether or not that's to be believed is up in the air, but judging by how customers flocked to the console this past holiday season, I don't think the momentum of the Wii will die anytime soon.

The PS3 has already overtook the X360 in Japan, which was no tough feat, as to date the X360 has barely sold 300k systems there. And Europe is arguably the most Sony-centric of the three prime regions, as it has more PSOne and PS2 owners than either North America and Japan, so a lead in sales is expected there too. I hate to say it, but I may have to agree with the analysts here -- while I don't quite put stake in their number predictions, I do think that Sony is going to have a hard time surpassing Microsoft in North America.

In any case, take a look at the published charts below. The 2006 PS3 predictions are off. So keep this in mind: the PS3 shipped 1 million in North America and 1.5 worldwide. The first chart is the North American forecast:

NA Forecast:

Xbox 360
2006: 6.0m
2007: 12.7m
2008: 19.5m
2009: 24.9m
2010: 29.4m

PlayStation 3
2006: 0.5m
2007: 7.6m
2008: 13.8m
2009: 19.5m
2010: 24.2m

Nintendo Wii
2006: 2.0m
2007: 5.3m
2008: 8.6m
2009: 11.4m
2010: 13.5m

Worldwide Forecast:

Sony PlayStation 3
2006: 1.0m
2007: 19.5m
2008: 35.5m
2009: 50m
2010: 62m

Xbox 360
2006: 10m
2007: 20.5m
2008: 30.5m
2009: 39m
2010: 46m

Nintendo Wii
2006: 4.0M
2007: 10.5m
2008: 16.5m
2009: 21.5m
2010: 25.0m

North American Market Share:

2006
360: 70%
Wii: 24%
PS3: 6%

2007
360: 49%
PS3: 29%
Wii: 21%

2008
360: 47%
PS3: 33%
Wii: 20%

2009
360: 45%
PS3: 35%
Wii: 20%

2010
360: 44%
PS3: 36%
Wii: 20%

Worldwide Market Share:

2006
PS3: 7%
360: 66%
Wii: 27%

2007
PS3: 39%
360: 40%
Wii: 21%

2008
PS3: 43%
360: 37%
Wii: 20%

2009
PS3: 45%
360: 35%
Wii: 20%

2010
PS3: 46%
360: 34%
Wii: 20%

1/9/2007 Arnold Katayev

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