Report: PS3 Will Eventually Outsell Both Rival Consoles
See Full ImageThe PS3 sales surge hit a new peak when the price fell $100 last fall, and one group of analysts say the hot-selling machine will eventually surpass both the Xbox 360 and Nintendo Wii.
As reported by Gamasutra, the Strategy Analytics Connected Home Devices (SACHD) service has provided us with a new forecast report, and the results show the PS3 at the top of the sales heap when all is said and done. This is primarily because they anticipate a much longer lifespan; the prediction is that the PS3 will remain a "commercial platform" for five years after Nintendo has replaced the Wii. Overall, the report estimates that PS3 sales will eventually hit 127 million worldwide, compared to around 103 million Wii units. There is no expected total number for the Xbox 360, but they say both the 360 and the PS3 "will hit their highest points between 2012 and 2014." But the bottom line is that the PS3 should continue to be relevant for far longer than either the 360 or the Wii. Said SACHD principal analyst and the report's author, David Mercer:
"Nintendo has done a great job with the Wii in bringing console games to new audiences. But its sales are now falling, particularly in mature markets, and its installed base will peak in 2011. Ownership of both the PS3 and the Xbox 360 will hit their highest points between 2012 and 2014."
Furthermore, the total global installed user base for home consoles will top 220 million by the end of 2010, although they also add that manufacturers will have to "introduce new systems in order to maintain industry growth." All along, Sony has said the PS3 has a 10-year life cycle and the more we progress through this generation, the more it seems that claim is just about accurate.
3/8/2010 9:11:41 PM Ben Dutka
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Comments (74 posts)
Ivan_PSP
Monday, March 08, 2010 @ 10:13:06 PM
8 up, 0 down
photo K
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 1:10:51 PM
2 up, 0 down
xnonsuchx
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 4:01:20 PM
4 up, 0 down
photo K
Wednesday, March 10, 2010 @ 9:35:07 AM
1 up, 0 down
sunspider13
Monday, March 08, 2010 @ 9:50:26 PM
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3 up, 0 down
NoSmokingBandit
Monday, March 08, 2010 @ 9:51:13 PM
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I think the ps3 will outsell the 360 in the long run, but the Wii is still selling like crazy.
3 up, 3 down
kraygen
Monday, March 08, 2010 @ 11:32:51 PM
1 up, 0 down
Nick Maim
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 1:27:05 PM
For Sony the PS3 is, and always will be, a loss leader. They'll make their money on selling you BlueRay movies, downloads, and a ton of games. They also make money on selling peripherals, which will include the Arc and associated games.
This leads me to the last point: The Arc will remove Nintendo as a competitor in the casual gamers market. Nintendo will by then have 300 Mario Bros-related titles, and will become a one-trick pony, catering to the ladies and the elderly.
So yeah, PS3 world domination has begun. Once again. Finally.
0 up, 0 down
Scarecrow
Monday, March 08, 2010 @ 9:53:36 PM
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16 up, 1 down
Gone
Monday, March 08, 2010 @ 10:04:59 PM
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18 up, 1 down
LimitedVertigo
Monday, March 08, 2010 @ 10:08:39 PM
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I don't see the PS3 or 360 catching up to the wii.
4 up, 3 down
Vitron
Monday, March 08, 2010 @ 10:46:15 PM
2 up, 0 down
SolidFantasy
Monday, March 08, 2010 @ 10:12:03 PM
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4 up, 0 down
556pineapple
Monday, March 08, 2010 @ 10:15:08 PM
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7 up, 0 down
Orvisman
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 9:02:55 AM
Sony lost a sale there. Hopefully Sony gets units into stores today for FFXIII and GOW3. If it doesn't, Sony could lose more sales to the 360 for those FF fans who want to upgrade from the PS2 to play FFXIII.
3 up, 0 down
Ivan_PSP
Monday, March 08, 2010 @ 10:16:25 PM
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PlayStation 102.49 Millions
PlayStation 2 140 Millions
PlayStation 3 127 Millions or more soon.
PlayStation Portable 100 million too soon.
10 up, 0 down
Kowhoho
Monday, March 08, 2010 @ 10:16:35 PM
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Problem is, predicting the results is less and less fun as it comes closer to the end...the end.....THE END......*eye twitches furiously*.....
*slaps face*. Whew, I'm learning to control my lust for chaos, but it's a process.
8 up, 0 down
johnld
Monday, March 08, 2010 @ 11:01:14 PM
*ohh hell! sony is catching up, time to rush a new system out! well take care of hardware issues later because xbots will buy it either way.*
8 up, 0 down
mackid1993
Monday, March 08, 2010 @ 10:22:22 PM
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8 up, 0 down
WolfCrimson
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 1:44:27 AM
1 up, 0 down
shadowpal2
Monday, March 08, 2010 @ 10:26:40 PM
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It can be done though - it'll just take time... and a lot of kick ass games from Sony's 1st party Developers and daring 3rd party developers who decide to keep their game exclusive to the PS3 for the sake of the game.
But with FFXIII and God of War III coming out soon (hell FFXIII tomorrow)...it's definitely going to help the PS3 sell units here and there.
Then Gran Turismo 5. Then Final Fantasy Versus XIII. Then...I'm not sure oh maybe the SECRET EXCLUSIVE THAT BEN has known for 10 years?
Last edited by shadowpal2 on 3/8/2010 10:27:03 PM
5 up, 0 down
mexgeo86
Monday, March 08, 2010 @ 10:31:17 PM
1 up, 0 down
johnld
Monday, March 08, 2010 @ 11:06:21 PM
4 up, 1 down
kraygen
Monday, March 08, 2010 @ 11:36:55 PM
gotta disagree, with the introduction of the arc, sony could create the same style of games that the wii offers, while at the same time offering motion controlling for sword/shield action games, rpgs, gun attachments for shooters.
With the arc its possible to steal the market.
2 up, 0 down
Natalisrubbish
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 11:59:00 AM
LOL neither do, incase you couldn't tell by my name...hahah
1 up, 0 down
smileylyon
Monday, March 08, 2010 @ 10:39:35 PM
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6 up, 0 down
totozero18
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 3:14:44 PM
Last edited by totozero18 on 3/9/2010 3:15:42 PM
0 up, 1 down
Bloodysilence19
Monday, March 08, 2010 @ 11:12:31 PM
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5 up, 0 down
Snaaaake
Monday, March 08, 2010 @ 11:18:43 PM
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There's really no chance of catching the Wii.
Like Sony once said, 360 lack longevity, the one advantage PS3 has over the 360 is Blu Ray and it's a huge advantage.
4 up, 0 down
kraygen
Monday, March 08, 2010 @ 11:54:08 PM
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xbox360
http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/xbox-360-sales-down-13-percent-year-on-year
http://news.spong.com/article/20435/Microsoft-Xbox-360-Sales-Down-but-Income-Up
Here are some wii examples.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=ajRSUK2ZYYlM
http://www.gamezine.co.uk/news/nintendo-profits-slide-as-wii-sales-slow-down-$1356818.htm
Ps3
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/27428/Japanese_Hardware_PS3_Sales_Up_29_Percent_WeekOnWeek.php
http://www.shacknews.com/onearticle.x/62249
And finally gaming overall.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/entertainmentnewsbuzz/2010/02/video-game-sales-plunge-in-january-2010.html
Now taking all this info into account isn't it nice to know that while the gaming industry as a whole is dropping, xbox 360 sales and wii sales are down, Ps3 sales are up.
It's very viable not only that ps3 sales will catch up, but will exceed both of the other consoles. I'm willing to believe in playstation, it is the better console as a whole.
ps. 360 sales numbers are bloated as the contain not only original sales but replacements for broken consoles, such as red ring of death replacements. So who knows the actual sales numbers for 360.
7 up, 0 down
rogers71
Monday, March 08, 2010 @ 11:59:45 PM
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I think these analysts sit in a room watching news channels, reading internet sites and then regurgitate what they read and hear. Where do you sign up for these jobs?
7 up, 1 down
archs13
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 12:08:24 AM
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6 up, 0 down
WorldEndsWithMe
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 12:30:13 AM
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7 up, 0 down
___________
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 12:37:43 AM
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in fact stop smoking all together, youll be surprised how much can change after that.........
the ps3 is never, ever, EVER! going to overtake the wii, sorry thats just fact.
its been selling like sliced bread still is, and always will.
why?
because of nintendos family image and the soccer moms.
a friend of mine has been nagging his parents for a ps3 for years and they keep refusing using the excuse games are the work of the devil.
keep in mind there extremely religious, so yea.
last week they got him a wii and he was well not exactly upset but not pleased either because theres nothing on there he likes.
than he said i thought games were the work of the devil and his parents replied not the wii because its a kids system.
thats why wiis are selling through the roof because for some reason parents look at the 360 they see gears and halo, they look at the ps3 and see GOW and killzone all violent games, than they look at the wii and somehow miss madworld, resident evil 4 and such.
that is why i am so worried about sony bringing out their motion controller because im worried there going to not desert but change their focus from hardcore to casual.
not completley desert hardcore games but shift their priorities slightly.
ive already lost 8 days and the getaway 3 because of crappy casual games eyepet to be specific as if that was not enough!
3 up, 8 down
Darwin1967
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 1:38:11 AM
What I think sales analysts aren't capturing, is how the WII tends to be a secondary instead of primary gaming system in many households. I purchased my PS3 in 2007. My kids have enjoyed a few games on there...LBP, Ratchet, etc. but when we thought about a gaming system for the kids, we immediately went for a WII. There are many factors for why the wii is a better sell for families. Many games allow for up to four players, so come family game night, we're all involved instead of 'waiting' our turns. Also, Nintendo does cater more to the younger players, but also to the 'moms' who might enjoy the excercise programs as well....it's definately more rounded than say either the PS3 or 360 when it comes to family play.
With that said, my PS3 is still my favorite system and when the kids are off to bed...it's the PS3 remote I grab for some quality adult gaming.
8 up, 0 down
___________
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 6:47:29 AM
thats one thing sony really needs to get there act on, splitscreen games.
or just games where more than one player can play on each system.
what i really dont want to see is ps3 games taking the wiis route.
sony has seen how successful the wii is and there trying to bring that over to there side of the grass.
that explains why games like madworld, resi 4, cursed mountain, the conduit, dead space extraction and such have not sold on the wii.
because its a kids console and well none of those games are suitable for kids.
as i said the only thing im worried about is sony wanting some of the casual pie.
as much as i like those style of games, i really miss playing mario brothers the rest of the gameboy classics, id much rather sony stick to the hardcore GOW3, 8 days games.
1 up, 1 down
Orvisman
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 9:11:45 AM
2 up, 0 down
photo K
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 1:23:51 PM
I know that the wii is more popular in my family as my mom, sister, brother and myself all own one, while the PS3 and Xbox will never reach my mom and sister. They both bought bluray players and have no need to go the ps3/360 route. So from my own experience, its not realistic.
0 up, 0 down
Alienange
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 1:51:11 AM
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0 up, 0 down
Highlander
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 2:09:29 AM
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The reason I mention it is because I predicted (with some Excel Magic) that Sony would sell about 111 million PS3s based on some conservative estimates. Just a few % either way on my model and Sony would sell 130 million or so. All I want to know is where is my cut of the no doubt huge fee that the SACHD analysts got for their work? It's not that I'm special, I just can't understand why anyone puts such weight in these predictions. If I can throw something together in 15 minutes in Excel, 6 months ago, that is as close to being accurate as this is, then I really have to doubt how much research the SACHD analysts had to do. Anyway, on to my prediction...
TheHighlander
Friday, September 04, 2009 @ 11:10:50 AM
PS3 has sold roughly 10 million units a year. If the price cut elevates sales by an average of 60% consistently, then that will average at 16 million units a year.
NPD thinks the Slim model and price cut lift PS3 sales by 40-60%. If we go with a 50% jump we could see the following (Excel is a great tool)... PS3 sales in year 4 up by 50% over year 3 (10 million units), in year 5 the sales rise another 10%. Year 6, sales are steady, and then in years 7, 8 and 9 sales start declining 20% year on year before dropping by 50% in year 10. That scenario has Sony selling 111 million units by the end of year 10. Making the sales spike sharper, and decline a little faster still gives around 110 million units over 10 years.
To me, if the PS3 even hit's 100 million units, then no matter what anyone says, it's a win for Sony.
It could be better than that though. The market for video games and game consoles is bigger than ever. Far bigger than when the PS2 was on it's way to 140 million units. That market continues to grow as consumers in many developing nations become affluent enough to join in. The transition to HD is another factor. The PS3 is in a perfect place to be the HD entertainment player of choice since it does literally everything needed. It plays games, it plays HD movies on disc (BD) and can stream/download movies online, it browses the net, it plays CDs, it plays DVDs, it plays downloaded music, it does photos, and so on, and so forth. I know we all know this stuff. I listed it to justify saying that the PS3 could be the HD entertainment player of choice. If the PS3 becomes a default choice for HD in the home, then sales way past 100 million units are well within reach.
Whatever way you cut it, the PS3 is here to stay and will sell at very least a significant fraction of 100 million units during it's life - worst case.
Last edited by Highlander on 3/9/2010 2:10:27 AM
8 up, 1 down
newchef
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 9:33:18 AM
edit: i cant spell =/
Last edited by newchef on 3/9/2010 9:33:50 AM
0 up, 0 down
rogers71
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 10:03:54 AM
Highlander, you missed one point.
Analysts have secretaries that use Excel and come up with the formulas for them. You, on the other hand, have done all the work for yourself. Pat yourself on the back my friend.
2 up, 0 down
Highlander
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 5:47:57 PM
I just find it really annoying that these 'analysts' can get so well paid (and they are well paid) for doing little more than stating the obvious.
1 up, 0 down
Kai200X
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 2:23:03 AM
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0 up, 0 down
kraygen
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 4:23:14 AM
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That is just not true. M$ and Nintendo have even admitted as much, if they can admit it why can't you?
1 up, 0 down
LimitedVertigo
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 6:11:21 AM
Last edited by LimitedVertigo on 3/9/2010 6:12:06 AM
9 up, 0 down
Highlander
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 6:23:15 PM
4 up, 1 down
RadioHeader
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 6:39:38 AM
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I'm not sure MS can depend on this kind of fanbase in the long-run, but it IS hurting PS3 sales and the industry as a whole. Good ol'Micro$haft.
4 up, 0 down
JackC8
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 7:25:31 AM
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As far as the Wii, I don't see Nintendo "replacing" it. Making a hi-def version would increase its price, killing it's entire appeal. And what other reason would they replace it for? I mean, it's the "casual" gaming console. People don't care about better graphics, more processing power, etc.
1 up, 0 down
rogers71
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 10:07:36 AM
I bring it up because, in that episode, he is at a girls house playing a 360 and he is using NATAL. It was that same ol kick ball game they showed at E3 last year. Lame, Lame, Lame.
5 up, 0 down
SirLoin of Beef
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 10:59:09 AM
I agree with the article that it'll be a matter of time until the PS3 outsells the 360. The prices for the two consoles are pretty much even now and there is no change for the PSN. Throw in BR playback and the PS3 is a better entertainment deal, cost-wise. Add the PS3 being a more powerful machine and you have the recipe for it overtaking the 360.
Whether or not it'll overtake the Wii is a question. It's benefited from having the lowest price at launch compared to the PS3 and 360 plus its more casual-friendly game library has appealed to people who might not have considered buying a video game unit before.
1 up, 0 down
JackC8
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 12:38:48 PM
I guess I didn't phrase that too well originally.
2 up, 0 down
Highlander
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 6:17:52 PM
After the price cut, it became painfully clear (finally) that the PS3 was actually a better deal than the 360. That, the lower price of the PS3 and the huge wave of superb games all contribute to the success.
1 up, 1 down
FullmetalX10
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 8:14:25 AM
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As for this, I personally don't think the PS3 will outsell the wii, sure I hope it will, but at least it won't anytime soon. I do think the PS3 will outsell the 360, in the next two years.
1 up, 0 down
Imagi
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 8:24:14 AM
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0 up, 0 down
Richy
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 9:15:16 AM
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oh no i already commented twice & long post too on another site. Ok i'll just add 1 thing. Like some of you said, as long as the PS3 sales is high enough to ensure good support from SONY & great games too, i'm happy with it, even if SONY is 10th with 100 millions console sold all over the world!
but i feel like the PS3 will beat the others while remaining quite long or forever behind the WII sales, even if there is a drop on this side. There will always be some new kids wanting a console & like a few said, parents would go for fun/family games rather than give a 6 year old God of War, it will be immoral & illegal!
If Super Mario comes to the PS3, even in the form of an emulator, you will get a mega rise that will put it next to the WII, but hey now i need to stop dreaming LOL.
cheers!
0 up, 0 down
Bandit King
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 11:00:53 AM
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0 up, 0 down
maxpontiac
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 1:19:54 PM
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"All along, Sony has said the PS3 has a 10-year life cycle and the more we progress through this generation, the more it seems that claim is just about accurate."
Indeed sir. Indeed.
0 up, 0 down
sha4dowknight05
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 4:39:24 PM
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0 up, 0 down
Solaris Knight
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 5:06:39 PM
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0 up, 0 down
Highlander
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 6:15:47 PM
1 up, 0 down
BikerSaint
Tuesday, March 09, 2010 @ 6:01:43 PM
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By the end of the PS3's life cycle, it "WILL" also command the top spot as "king of the mountain", and, just as it's 2 younger sibling's have also done.....
PS1
PS2
PS3
"PLAYSTATION BATTLE HISTORY WILL "3PEAT" ITSELF"
TRIPLE BOOM!
1 up, 0 down
Robochic
Wednesday, March 10, 2010 @ 12:24:12 AM
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Honestly everyone I know said when the PS3 first released that it would never level up to the 360 and I stood firm on my stance on Sony that they would just had to wait and be patient and they will prevail. Well look at the PS3 now barely on the shelves, amazing exclusives on any console this Generation, Blueray is hitting fast and prices are even lowering on that (just picked up Planet 51 for 20 bucks on blueray) for peeks sake the machine resurrected on it's own LOL for the launched PS3's (mine was on of them) oh and do have to say those Kevin Butler commercials F* hilarious (KB for Prez) LOL.
So with all of this said there is NO reason for people to say Sony is going no where, cause how I see it all they can do is move Forward and they sure are and fast.
I also have to say those sale figures for the 360 I never trust how many of those where rebuys due to RROD or E74 ect... cause I bet those figures would be a lot less.
3 up, 0 down
Highlander
Wednesday, March 10, 2010 @ 4:33:14 PM
I wonder how much growth XBL has seen compared to the number of Xboxes sold in the last 18-24 months...?
1 up, 1 down
dctravis
Saturday, March 13, 2010 @ 3:30:37 PM
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*bluray
*HDD swap
*built in wifi
*PS classics on the PSN network
*rechargeable controller (such a nice yet
cheap touch)
*god of war III
*God of war Collections
*did i mention God of War III?
*easy media playback
*netflix
*internet browser
*sixaxis controller
*built in Power Supply
To be honest the one thing that would truly make the ps3 sell like crazy would be backwards compatibility even if it meant spending more on a console... If they made the new slim models backwards compatible I would go out and buy another one tomorrow and I am sure that many others would as well. Or even just expanding the online store with more PS1 and (if possible) PS2 games... Also I do not want Sony to rush, but I hope that when a new console is released they will do more to try to convince the game devs to make the games for the ps3 first or make more exclusives. If they can get the devs to actually truly develop for the ps3 instead of just porting over from the 360 the ps3 would blow the 360 out of the water on every game.
I have no respect for microsoft and the only reason that I own a 360 is to mod the crap out of it. Even if the ps3 does get hacked (doubt it) I would not outof respect for the work that they have done on this awesome system. I even bought the GoW3 100 dollar edition as a thank you SCEA as I hope that they recieve a little more cash after subtracting the box and all that.
The PS3 will win. The 360 is owned mostly by people who pirate games and people who are getting sick of them breaking. and the wii is getting way to redundant and boring as they keep releasing 20 of the same exact games over and over again. The PS3 is truly making original and awesome games and is truly a solid piece of hardware.
0 up, 0 down
godsman
Reply
Monday, March 08, 2010 @ 9:37:49 PM
Wii = 70 mil
Xbox = 38 mil
PS3 = 33 mil.
Total is about 141 million units.
How in hell is the total going to be 220 by the end of 2010?! Sony should really address the shortage issue. There's too much demand at this critical time. The perfect time to catch up to other consoles.
Last edited by godsman on 3/8/2010 9:40:06 PM