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Pachter: Third-Party Exclusives Will Die

Obviously, this generation has seen the demise of most one-time third-party exclusives. And as time goes on, it's very likely that the only remaining exclusives will be first- (or perhaps second)-party.

Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter certainly thinks so, as he predicted the end of third-party exclusives on the latest episode of GameTrailer's PachAttack.  He also believes that Microsoft simply won't be able to keep paying off developers to keep games exclusive; the installed user base of the PS3 has gotten too large to ignore.

"Going forward I don't think you're going to get a lot of Xbox 360 or PS3 exclusives from publishers. You will still get them from developers, so guys like Insomniac who keep making PS3-exclusives, but I don't think you're going to see Ubisoft or Take-Two or Activision do an Xbox 360 or PS3 exclusive ever again because the install base of the two consoles is just too big to ignore. They'd be giving up way too much unless Microsoft is willing to pay up.

I don't think Microsoft is willing to pay up what it's going to take to ignore that whole PS3 crowd."

He further stated that we should expect a PS3 version of Splinter Cell: Conviction about six months down the road, and he also says that while the first two Mass Effect games may not end up on Sony's machine, he's fairly certain that upcoming titles definitely will. Well, depending on how you view this news, this could be good or bad...personally, I think it's good, provided talented developers continue to make exclusives for the PS3, which just so happen to be the finest gaming experiences available right now.

4/26/2010 11:00:36 AM Ben Dutka

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Comments (27 posts)

maxpontiac
Monday, April 26, 2010 @ 11:12:58 AM
Reply

Everybody has to see this coming.

My only concern is that whether these 3rd party developers/publishers make PS3 versions to where they are supposed to be.

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CH1N00K
Monday, April 26, 2010 @ 11:21:32 AM
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That makes sense, depending on the game MS would have to start paying a crap load more just to keep a game exclusive. When the PS3 was way behind in sales it would be easy to do, but now, MS would have to shell out for a potential 35 million unit user base...that's a lot of dough for one game.

On the other hand, I don't know what it is but every time I see an article with the name Michael Pachter, it loses a bit of credibility. This guy gets paid to overstate the obvious or make stupid predictions. But that's just my opinion.



Last edited by CH1N00K on 4/26/2010 11:22:35 AM

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Mornelithe
Monday, April 26, 2010 @ 11:39:12 AM
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I think that point is really already widely apparent. There are a mere handful of 3rd party, exclusive franchises left, and it's really not surprising in the slightest that it's turned out this way.

We've seen that even in past deals, developers allowed for loopholes around exclusivity, because, well, it was never definite which way the PS3 would go. Many avid followers knew it would stay put and become every bit as relevant as it today. Developers however, watered at the mouth over the handouts MS was laying down. I'm just glad to see that Sony really makes them pay dearly for such antics. Refusing to allow the title be launched, if they bring the exact same IP a year later. Forcing them to go back and add bells, and whistle and in some cases improvements upon the games engine itself? Works for me.

While I completely approve of the current situation, I do say, devs just won't continue to fall for it. Nor will the money MS can dish out upfront, be able to match probable 1st week draws of major IP for an install base in excess of 34 million. So, eventually I think this amusing situation will come to an end. Almost feel bad for the 360 crowd, who kinda get screwed on the content side of things, for the time being that is. I imagine I'd be pretty pissed if a game I loved came out on my console, then at some point later, came out on another machine...only better. Noticeably better.

Last edited by Mornelithe on 4/26/2010 11:43:03 AM

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bridgera
Monday, April 26, 2010 @ 11:56:18 AM
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I believe that Valve will be the last console exclusive 3rd party developer left standing, meerly because they are Sony hating biggots.

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LimitedVertigo
Monday, April 26, 2010 @ 9:25:55 PM

They don't hate Sony, stop spreading lies you misinformed tool.

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bridgera
Tuesday, April 27, 2010 @ 12:36:11 PM

So when Chet Faliszek talks about how Left 4 Dead wasn't on the PS3, and then goes on and says it was because the 360 community was "head and shoulders" above the PS3 community, that was totally rational right?

It's only rational because the 360 has cross game chat and detailed profiles, where as the PS3 only has same game chat and limited profiles, hence putting one community far beyond the other.

Totally rational to not release a game on a console for that reason. No hating there.

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coverton341
Monday, April 26, 2010 @ 11:58:45 AM
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Sometimes the man says some baffling things that make you stop dead in your tracks and say wtf and then sometimes he says stuff like this.

I think for the most part everyone can agree with this. Third party exclusives have been disappearing rather steadily this generation and as the console gap closes there just doesn't seem to be a good reason for third party exclusivity to come back. I do however find it unfortunate mainly because the two consoles in general seem to pull in different gamers. Taking from Highlander's biggest gripe about developers seeing the gaming industry as one singular unit I can see this being a possible step in the direction of making more and more "mass appeal" games and leading to less diversity among genres.

At least we can be thankful for first party studios and studios that seem to remember what their main genre focus is.

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Nynja
Monday, April 26, 2010 @ 12:11:09 PM
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That's what people (media) have been saying since 2006 or possibly even earlier.

Honestly, I don't know how Patcher even has a job anymore. Does anyone know what -if any- prediction he has made that was actually correct? Don't give me some really dumb one either, where everyone already knew.

I think Highlander and myself have made more predictions that have turned out to be correct than Patcher has.

My Prediction.

3rd party exclusives will live on till the end of time. There may not be nearly as many from the PS2 days, but they will continue to flourish on many platforms.

You heard it here first. If anyone is looking to hire an analyst for the gaming industry, contact me.

Last edited by Nynja on 4/26/2010 12:11:39 PM

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Nynja
Monday, April 26, 2010 @ 12:14:32 PM

Ben,

Last line in the 2nd paragraph you have a typo.

"...the intalled user base..."

You can delete this post too if you want.

Last edited by Nynja on 4/26/2010 12:14:50 PM

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Ben Dutka PSXE [Administrator]
Monday, April 26, 2010 @ 12:20:41 PM

Okay, fixed.

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godsman
Monday, April 26, 2010 @ 1:16:23 PM

I am not a Pacther fan, but I don't know why people hate him so much. That is his job, to make the most reasonable prediction for his client.

He doesn't just boldly claim a certain thing, he has research and numbers to back it off. Obviously he won't show those research and numbers on a brief interview.

Like for this instance, 3rd party exclusivity, we just assume it'll never happen, because we see exclusives being stripped away from PS3 one by one. Pacther, as an analyst does the research and crunch the numbers. That there is little profit to be made, compared with the large profit going multiplatform. We know it's a lot money going mutli, but we don't know HOW much, he knows. I doubt even Ben knows the numbers we just know:

multiplatform = big profit

As for the Wii HD that he always claim, it's just pure business sense for Nintendo to make one eventually, but Patcher knows the profit that they are making allows them to do so. In the end it's Nintendo's decision to make one or not.

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godsman
Monday, April 26, 2010 @ 12:43:07 PM
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Timed-exclusive is the most ridiculous thing. I still don't know why Microsoft pay developers for timed-exclusivity. Either pay them enough to not make the game on PS3 or not do it at all. They are not moving the industry forward, they are holding them back.

They should just pay them 60-80 million dollars to make a brand new game JUST for Xbox, but they are cheap, paying 10-20 million. Not enough to make half a game, so they get timed-exclusivity instead. It's like paying people 60 bucks to not play the game, except the developers gets the money.

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kraygen
Monday, April 26, 2010 @ 12:57:23 PM
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I would be willing to believe that 3rd party devs might stop doing exclusives, but M$ will always pay out. They've always claimed they would buy their way into peoples homes and they have done it. If sony had twice as many console owners M$ would still shell out for timed exclusivity and what ever else they could get their hands on. It's the only way they can appear to be competitive on the current consoles.

If they didn't pay I could see the last few years of the current gen consoles lacking 360 support. Early on ps3 hardly got anything because there were so few owners, but now more and more devs are liking the ps3 and hating the dvd, so if M$ didn't pay, there would be a good chance that devs would start ignoring the 360 in order to make a more noticeable game and garner more interest due to the game being above and beyond.

M$ would rather shell out millions and millions of dollars than to actually admit their machine isn't up to par with the ps3.

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erislocker
Monday, April 26, 2010 @ 1:04:03 PM
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regarding fanboyism, i really don't care at all about multiplat. the more, the merrier.

however! i don't like the notion that ps3 games have have to be dumbed down quality-wise due to xbox's inability to keep up with ps3's power...

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leatherface
Monday, April 26, 2010 @ 1:09:38 PM
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Pachter: Thinks contest draws to a near, who will win blue PS3?

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godsman
Monday, April 26, 2010 @ 1:20:55 PM
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Considering that Microsoft paid 50 million dollars to make GTA DLC and that was just timed-exclusivity, we can see that 3rd party exclusives are dead. 50 million is enough to make a brand new game, yet it's still not enough money to make Microsoft exclusive.

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Deleted User
Monday, April 26, 2010 @ 2:15:06 PM
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Exclusives are a good thing as it brings out the best that both consoles have to offer. However, with so much money to be made going multi plat, exclusives may become less and less.

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Alienange
Monday, April 26, 2010 @ 4:47:14 PM
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You're exactly right there Ben. If those talented developers decide they want to expand into multiplat debauchery then we'll definitely feel the pain as those wildly impressive PS3 exclusives disappear.

I really do hope that one day, ONE day, those millions of PS3 owners actually buy these great exclusives making them a force to be reckoned with. GT5 maybe?

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just2skillf00l
Monday, April 26, 2010 @ 6:18:13 PM
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I want Fable 3.

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RebelJD
Monday, April 26, 2010 @ 7:44:38 PM
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At first, when the PS3 wasn't selling well, game producers had a reason to rely on the Xbox 360. Now that you hear Playstation 3 coming out of everyone's mouth, you can expect to see them move away from providing exclusives to the 360. It's not that they wanted to focus on just the 360, it's that they had to.

Now it has become a different ball game, I expect more exclusives to be coming to the PS3 line up. Yes, I'm talking about third party exclusives.

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shadowpal2
Monday, April 26, 2010 @ 7:53:33 PM
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...EXCEPT IN JAPAN...there will continue to be 3rd Party PS3 exclusives, unless they somehow manage to come up with Wii EXTREME HD.

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SnipeySnake
Monday, April 26, 2010 @ 7:58:31 PM
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Did he just confirmed microsoft pays devs to keep it a 360 exclusive, or was it comfirmed a long time ago?

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BikerSaint
Monday, April 26, 2010 @ 8:06:35 PM
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@Pachter,
We already know, so yawn,....OLD NEWS!

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LegendaryWolfeh
Monday, April 26, 2010 @ 8:33:46 PM
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So, if it's because the ps3 install base is so high, what about already 3rd party exclusive ps3 games, like Insomniac for instance, wouldn't they tech still be 3rd party exclusives, huzzah for being wrong.

Also I doubt Bungie is going to make a ps3 game anytime soon, I think they're essentially MS's Insomniac, they said they like working for MS and their relationship with them, but who knows, maybe I'll be wrong.

Last edited by LegendaryWolfeh on 4/26/2010 8:34:47 PM

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Snaaaake
Monday, April 26, 2010 @ 9:09:46 PM
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Maybe for most western developers, but for Japanese developers like Hideo Kojima or studios like Atlus and NIS, they'll keep making PS3 exclusives.

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Robochic
Tuesday, April 27, 2010 @ 12:38:20 AM
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As long as the developers like Insominiac, Naughty Dog, ect..stay exclusive with PS3 I'm happy with that.

I agree with erislocker the one thing I surely hate is how developers dumb down the games when porting to the PS3 it bothers me as well.

Thats why I support more the exclusives unless the reviews are horrible but I haven't really seen any exclusives for the PS3 get crappy reviews except for Lair but I think that game was misunderstood cause I surely enjoyed it.

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___________
Tuesday, April 27, 2010 @ 2:59:35 AM
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i would agree if it was not for M$ and their bottomless checkbook.
or even nintendo, i wonder how much they paid capcom to make monster hunter tri a wii exclusive.
just does not seem like a wii game, and everyone knows 3rd party games do not sell well on the wii so capcoms taking a massive risk.
as long as companies are willing to pay for exclusives, than there will be exclusive 3rd party games.
and i cant see that changing any time soon.

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