How Often Do Game Analysts Use Common Sense?
See Full ImageBefore I present my theory, I have to start with a disclaimer: the elitist mentality in the gaming population translates to the widespread belief that any hardcore fan can do a critic's job and an analyst's job, and do it better than either of the aforementioned professionals. It's a little embarrassing to see so much of this in the communities and forums around the Internet, actually. I'm not saying critics and analysts are always correct, but I am saying that both have certain skills and credentials that mean they are - yes, they are - more qualified to be in their positions than the dude who spends his life on forums spreading his "I know more than everyone" maxim.
That being said, I do often wonder if analysts take the time to use an added dose of common sense when it comes to their predictions and expectations. The example I will use for this argument is April's NPD sales, which were much lower than initially anticipated. As a result, guys like Michael Pachter appear to be very worried (he thinks something might be "terribly wrong"). He does mention that gamers probably spent in March and are looking forward to May, but clearly, this was not factored into the original predictions...so, why? Guys, I think we all know that last month was almost entirely dead. Okay, the last week featured Nier and Super Street Fighter IV, but I doubt either of those will be million-sellers and I also don't think Conviction (released on April 13) will sell as well as everyone may think. Besides, it's an exclusive, which automatically limits potential sales. Other than that? Sherlock Holmes vs. Jack the Ripper? Episodes from Liberty City for the PS3 that I can almost guarantee few PS3 owners care about (nobody here at PSXE seemed to)...?
Furthermore, look at March. God of War III, Final Fantasy XIII, Battlefield: Bad Company 2, Just Cause 2, Yakuza 3, even the expansion Dragon Age: Awakenings, and more. And yes, I know I just cited a few exclusives here, too, but the bottom line is that March presented gamers with a slew of great titles from which to choose. Now, May: Red Dead Redemption, Prince of Persia: The Forgotten Sands, Lost Planet 2, Split/Second (getting great reviews thus far), and the surprisingly popular 3D Dot Game Heroes. Sans the latter, many have been anticipating this month ever since...well, March. The bottom line is that I don't think analysts give gaming consumers enough credit sometimes. Many really have to plan ahead because most are on budgets (time and money), and they're some of the more informed consumers of any given entertainment venue. It's likely that many spent a pretty penny in March and weren't about to drop any more cash in April, especially when there was almost nothing to entice them.
Furthermore, there's no doubt they were looking forward into this month with the full knowledge they'd have to assault the wallet yet again. Lastly, gamers are well aware of the new technology on the horizon; Move and Natal would represent more investments and 3D is a huge investment unless you're somehow already blessed with a 3D-compatible HDTV. In the end, this is all I'm saying: if I were an analyst going into the March-May period, I would predict a huge March, an absolutely lousy April, and a solid (potentially great) May. I mean...considering all points, wouldn't you? It's almost like hindsight is 20/20 but when releasing expectations for April, shouldn't such thoughts go into the process?
5/16/2010 9:23:13 PM Ben Dutka
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Comments (54 posts)
Kowhoho
Sunday, May 16, 2010 @ 10:13:46 PM
3 up, 0 down
Jawknee
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 11:23:27 AM
Last edited by Jawknee on 5/17/2010 11:24:09 AM
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WorldEndsWithMe
Sunday, May 16, 2010 @ 10:06:04 PM
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2 up, 1 down
Mavfan321
Sunday, May 16, 2010 @ 10:15:08 PM
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kraygen
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 1:39:53 AM
2 up, 1 down
Alienange
Sunday, May 16, 2010 @ 10:25:29 PM
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Gimme a break. Video game critics and analysts are not in a "position" as you claim. They are people who are paid to sensationalize new products and sales numbers.
7 up, 4 down
WorldEndsWithMe
Sunday, May 16, 2010 @ 10:32:53 PM
3 up, 1 down
Ben Dutka PSXE [Administrator]
Sunday, May 16, 2010 @ 11:00:58 PM
13 up, 1 down
Dancemachine55
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 3:55:23 AM
Critics and analysts are formally trained to deal with statistics and may even help the industry relaise trends and patterns for developers to follow.
I would read and agree with nearly all Ben's articles and comments because they make a valid point whilst remaining relatively neutral, which believe it or not is quite a hard thing to do.
Only occassionally does Pachter say a few wrong things or make obvious comments on common knowledge data or trends. Rest of the time, he's fairly accurate with how things might work out in the gaming biz.
Ben, keep up the good work. Don't let users like Alienage let you down. The PSXextreme fans love you here, man.
Last edited by Dancemachine55 on 5/17/2010 3:56:32 AM
5 up, 4 down
Orvisman
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 8:02:59 AM
I've been an editor/writer on Wall Street for 13 years now, and I can tell you analysts do have a specific skill set that most knuckleheads on the web just don't get. And no, not everyone can do their jobs.
That said, I will admit this, you wouldn't believe how many people with their MBAs and/or legal degrees really can't write. I mean, come on, these are highly educated people who couldn't write their way out of a wet paper bag with a sharpened No. 2 pencil.
2 up, 1 down
Alienange
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 12:39:08 PM
My apologies for that. I certainly don't come here daily to insult you or your work.
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coverton341
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 1:07:59 PM
Believe it or not they don't just sit around thinking of things to make up and scare people with, though from your previously stated position you will continue to believe that is exactly what they do.
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Alienange
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 1:56:20 PM
When an analyst is constantly looking for publicity then he's no longer just analyzing. He is now influencing the industry he's focusing on.
For example, we all know Red Dead Redemption will sell wonderfully but, wouldn't you know it, an analyst has stepped up to sensationalize the situation and now many more gamers will say "well if it's THAT popular, i'm going to buy it too."
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Ben Dutka PSXE [Administrator]
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 3:28:03 PM
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coverton341
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 5:31:52 PM
Yes, it does seem that many analysts play to the crowd and work things up more than necessary, but not all do just like in any given profession. Some do it for the fame some do it because they enjoy it. Now, speaking from my own personal perspective I cannot figure out for the life of me why anyone would enjoy following market trends and analysing statistics for a living but, to each their own I suppose.
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Fane1024
Saturday, May 22, 2010 @ 5:13:06 PM
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tes37
Sunday, May 16, 2010 @ 10:27:02 PM
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Dancemachine55
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 3:58:22 AM
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tes37
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 6:14:28 AM
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Naztycuts
Sunday, May 16, 2010 @ 10:32:45 PM
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MyWorstNightmar
Sunday, May 16, 2010 @ 10:46:56 PM
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Why did you not include his other quotes?
Pachtner - "Unfortunately, we are at a loss to identify precisely what was wrong, given relatively robust sales for the three months prior, decent weather, an improving economy, and a deep catalog of recently released titles…As we cannot explain the reasons for the shortfall, we can only conclude that April was a fluke, with many core gamers enjoying recently purchased games and looking forward to new releases coming out in May."
It seems he did identify as a reason the great titles of March, and that gamers are also looking forward to May.
In this instance, you didn't misquote him, you just...didn't quote him.
Last edited by MyWorstNightmar on 5/16/2010 10:49:52 PM
5 up, 0 down
Ben Dutka PSXE [Administrator]
Sunday, May 16, 2010 @ 11:04:17 PM
But that doesn't change the fact that initial expectations for April were a lot higher than they should've been, and I have no idea why.
It's almost as if the reason was dawning on Pachter as he was trying to explain the "fluke."
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MyWorstNightmar
Sunday, May 16, 2010 @ 11:40:33 PM
But there was a typo. "He does mention that gamers probably spent in April and are looking forward to May"
You mean spent in March.
Note to Pachter: You think R* is worried about the sales in April? It's all relative. $ will continue to flow into the industry. And pockets will continue to get fat. All these numbers would be different if even 1 of Marchs releases decided to release in April instead.
Last edited by MyWorstNightmar on 5/16/2010 11:44:52 PM
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Ben Dutka PSXE [Administrator]
Sunday, May 16, 2010 @ 11:59:32 PM
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Dancemachine55
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 4:03:09 AM
Way to go picking up on those mistakes and little absences in the article. It's members like you who REALLY contribute to these comment threads.
BTW, this is the only website I'm an actual member of cos of community members like you and editors like Ben.
Last edited by Dancemachine55 on 5/17/2010 4:03:35 AM
4 up, 0 down
Nynja
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 3:44:05 PM
I made a prediction below. Lets see how close I come compared to the "pros".
Btw - I feel like this article was written for me. I feel special :)
Last edited by Nynja on 5/17/2010 3:45:36 PM
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Victor321
Sunday, May 16, 2010 @ 10:48:46 PM
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That's right, analysts stink at their job. The good ones probably don't make themselves public.
And no, I'm implying this as fact on anybody. Merely my opinion.
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Scarecrow
Sunday, May 16, 2010 @ 11:12:02 PM
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They know what they're doing
They want to make these companies think 'bout MONEY MONEY MONEY!
It's the same road Hollywood took
After decades of masterpieces through the 60s, 70s, and 80s, it all started going downhill in the 00s (imho)
It's all 'bout streamlining v-games
All games should multiplatform!
They should care less 'bout quality and more 'bout giving the gamer a little HIGH here and there
And then re-selling the same game with slight updates every year: Call of Duty/Madden
Yes Pachter, I can see right through you*
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laxpro2001
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 12:50:18 AM
Can't see that ever happening though
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Robochic
Sunday, May 16, 2010 @ 11:44:38 PM
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April pretty much was a dead month for anything, not even any good movies were released on dvd or theatre in that month. What are they worrying about? March had big AAA games that were released consumers were probably enjoying all those great titles.
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bridgera
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 1:54:43 AM
.... yep, didn't see anything positive from the industry that month.
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Dancemachine55
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 4:05:51 AM
That was it, the only two big games I got for the month.
Well worth getting SC:C on 360 if you have one, or PC if it can handle it. Great game.
Last edited by Dancemachine55 on 5/17/2010 4:07:54 AM
2 up, 1 down
wiiplay
Thursday, May 20, 2010 @ 10:43:29 AM
My B-day was in April!
Sure, I didn't get great gifts due to the lack of games, but there was cake!
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DeathOfChaos
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 12:20:09 AM
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laxpro2001
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 12:48:31 AM
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IMO it was the lack of blockbuster releases that came out for the PS3 during April. While I do disagree with you Ben about your predictions about SSFIV sales, I still don't see it as a system seller either. If SF was a system seller it would have probably gotten most of the consumers to commit when the original SFIV came out anyway. Not to mention it isn't even exclusive.
But yea the analysts should try and see the situation from the view of a regular consumer who may be on a budget. It's seemingly obvious why there weren't a lot of system sales but that doesn't call for a reason to panic
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kraygen
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 1:51:23 AM
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Another thing that I've been considering is that, I'm sure these analysts all make predictions for a multitude of things, but all we as gamers mostly hear about are their gaming predictions. Perhaps it's not that they are bad analysts, they're just not gamers and therefore don't understand video game trends.
However as for the april predictions, that was definitely a blunder on their part. Altho the blunder could just be that since they are not gamers they can't tell which games will sell well and which ones gamers scoff at.
In the end I think you definitely need certain skills for predicting financial outcomes, and most definitely for reviewing games, but perhaps we think analysts are dumb because when it comes to video games they just don't know the consumer.
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bridgera
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 2:01:17 AM
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1) either they make well thought out comments that really involve the history of the matter
2) they state a flat out opinion
3) they guess a bunch of crap without the historical backing involved in 1)
I think that's about it, and those apply to pretty much everyone, not just critics.
Last year when "critics" predicted the PS3 price cut almost every day of the year, well ya, anyone who had any knowledge on the pricing of electronics KNEW the price would fall.... didn't really mean the critics knew more than the guy who understood why electronics prices fall.
Comments should be considered on their merit, reguardless of who says them.
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kraygen
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 2:03:39 AM
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You didn't mention this month has Modnation racers. :( Come on now feel the play, create, share love!
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Ben Dutka PSXE [Administrator]
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 10:34:54 AM
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SmokeyPSD
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 2:59:54 AM
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Profitability is not the be all end all as a game can be an artistic endeavour, there's fan loyalty at work, there's developer loyalty. Sony has been good to Insomniac, Insomniac has been good to Sony. They enjoy working with the ps3 and together, just like Kojima, he loves and enjoys the capabilities of Sony's hardware and enjoys making games for what he wants and what platform he wants. Quantic Dreams also comes to mind, Sony also helped with the actual development of Heavy Rain, not just in a direct financial benfit way. Analysts are of the economic world none of this registers. I feel that quite honestly, they shouldnt even be covered on a site like this.
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Orvisman
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 8:05:41 AM
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JackC8
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 7:28:05 AM
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But what do I know.
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Deleted User
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 8:21:41 AM
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Investors who most likely know little or care little about the state of the video game industry and just want a decent return on their money. I assume the majority of these analyst predictions aren't made with the intention of them being published on game websites and abused.
Of course gamers knew that MW2 was going to sell millions, it was the most anticipated release of last year (multi-platform), but how would a 50 year old investor who has never played a game know such a thing?
The majority of what these people say comes true, and I know people think "well I could work this stuff out" but could you also do it for dozens of other industries which the analysts no doubt have to.
I think we should give analysts a break.
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Beamboom
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 9:03:20 AM
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maxpontiac
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 12:45:38 PM
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All one needs to do for further proof, is monitor the trouble in Europe (1 trillion Euro bailout, Greece). You can then focus on the still struggling US economy (Housing market, un-employment).
Eventually, entertainment will become an a non-necessity if things continue to get worse.
Personally, I think that May will be a good month for the industry, and if it's not.. the video game market's slow down is nothing but another symptom of what's happening on Earth.
Just something to think about.
Last edited by maxpontiac on 5/17/2010 12:48:43 PM
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Nynja
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 3:25:16 PM
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Checking sources... Checking fact sheets... Checking common knowledge...
Yup. My figures show they attempt to use common sense which a large portion of people appear to lack - according to my sources.
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Nynja
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 3:44:41 PM
I think Ben summed it up pretty well. With very highly anticipated games releasing in March, this very well effected game sales in April.
Add to that, it's tax month. I'm sure a lot of people were busy filing and paying taxes. Lets not forget about the MW2 map pack that was released as well. With another not due till June, for the month of May, we'll see an increase in sales compared to the previous month, April. We will also see a rise in sales when compared to the previous year. Last year's biggest game(s) at that time was X-Men Origins: Wolverine, Riddick, and Punch-Out on the Wii. This year we have Skate 3, Batman GOTY, Lost Planet 2, UFC, ModNation, and Iron Man 2. Even though I think Iron Man 2 will be as crapy as the first one, the first installment still sold well. All proven franchises and a new IP that has collected a lot of momentum right before release tomorrow.
Game Sales (All Platforms):
Lost Planet 2 - 1.5 mil
Iron Man 2 - 1.1 mil
UFC - 900k
Batman - 500k
ModNation - 300k (PS3 only)
Console Sales:
Wii - 410k
PS3 - 240k
360 - 230k
Lets see how close I come now.
Last edited by Nynja on 5/17/2010 3:47:17 PM
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BikerSaint
Monday, May 17, 2010 @ 3:47:23 PM
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And I'm sure most of them are good at thinking on just exactly what they're paid to think about.
But with that said,.......
I think that in putting the words, "Pachtar" & "analyst", anywhere in the same sentence,
only creates a "quadruple-oxymoron".
Last edited by BikerSaint on 5/17/2010 3:48:35 PM
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Orvisman
Tuesday, May 18, 2010 @ 7:42:42 AM
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I’m certain the same thing goes on with Pachter and Divinich. They write reports for stock investors; but any good journalist will pick those reports off the wire to read because the analysts, most times, have access to information you or I or the journalists don’t have until we read the report.
In turn, it’s the “journalists” from GameSpot, IGN, and Kotaku that call Pachter or Divinich for comment. Maybe they don’t even do that. Maybe they just quote Pachter and Divinich from their reports. I’m sure neither publicly seeks the attention. They are just doing their jobs.
But of course none of this matters because most of you who hold your negative opinions on analysts will never be swayed to see reason because you, of course, know better than everyone else, even those with knowledge you don’t have about the situation.
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wiiplay
Thursday, May 20, 2010 @ 10:46:18 AM
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We don't like your kind here, so please take these wonderful words of advice.
Fudge off you mother trucker burn in H E double hockey sticks.
@Ben. Sorry, just couldn't resist. I mean, the comment has been here for an hour. Feel free to delete my post once you delete the other posts.
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Deleted User []
Reply
Sunday, May 16, 2010 @ 10:02:03 PM