"Break-Even Estimate" For Red Dead: 4 Million Copies
Obviously, Red Dead Redemption is one of the generation's best, and it comes highly recommended by most every critic on the planet.
But will that be enough for Rockstar to make money on their blockbuster title? According to Industry Gamers, the developer calls their Western epic their "most ambitious game to date" and although sales may have already climbed over 1 million, it'll need to sell more...a lot more. Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey increased his initial prediction of 2 million copies sold to 3.6 million, but even so, the project's "development expense exceeded $70 million+, suggesting 4 million unit ship break-even estimate." On the good side, Signal Hill Capital Group Todd Greenwald said RDR continues to "kill it" at retail and the game is selling "extremely well." He added:
"We believe management originally budgeted Red Dead to ship 1-2M units during the quarter, but is now seeing demand for at least 2-3M units. As a result, many retailers were quickly left out of stock, which is now driving robust re-orders. As a result, we think Take-Two could see sales of 3M units in the July quarter, and as much as 4-5M units by the end of the year. We are raising our Q3 estimates to reflect 3M units, up from 2M units."
Most analysts admit to being wrong about Red Dead Redemption; many were skeptical because Western-themed video games have historically done very little in terms of retail sales and furthermore, it's not a widely recognized series name (despite the fact that there was another "Red Dead" earlier, known as Red Dead Revolver). Still, the strength of the review score has made this one a hit...let's just hope it reaches GTA numbers for the sake of the designers.
Related Game(s): Red Dead Redemption
6/4/2010 9:20:05 PM Ben Dutka