Square-Enix: Game Consoles Hitting Their "Upper Limits"
There have been so many unbelievable advancements in console technology over the past three decades but at this point, might we have gone about as far as we can go...?
Square-Enix certainly thinks so. CEO Yoichi Wada told GamesIndustry.biz that video game consoles "have almost reached their upper limit" in terms of technological sophistication. Mind you, he's not talking about the current consoles being "maxed" out; he's referring to the overall increases made in console technology over the years. Said Wada:
"What's inside the games consoles, like the CPUs, this has been quite advanced already today, but the biggest gap was seen a little more than ten years ago, when Sony came up with the PlayStation. Since then, so many things have already been added that I think it has almost reached the upper limit. No matter what they do, I don't think there can be any more added affect or significant impact with game consoles."
Rather than more advances in CPUs and general hardware, Wada believes the next big strides will take place in each console's networking capabilities; even things like the PlayStation Move and Kinect are "minimal additions." As for those networking capabilities, the Square-Enix boss hinted that his company is currently working on a digital distribution platform similar to Valve's Steam network. This is something that may come to light later in the generation but for now, it's a common question: just how far can we go?
Tags: ps3, consoles, power, potential
6/25/2010 10:43:50 AM Ben Dutka
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Comments (98 posts)
ro kurorai
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 11:29:40 AM
I agree with you on that one Highlander. SE have obviously way more experience on 360 so I reckon they can evaluate its hardware capabilities.
But unless SE deliver something on par with Uncharted2, KZ2/3, GOW3 or Heavy Rain visually Wada can keep his snide remarks to himself for all I care.
Last edited by ro kurorai on 6/25/2010 11:29:55 AM
Victor321
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 12:37:25 PM
bridgera
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 7:58:38 PM
What did a video game cost to make in the 1980's ?
$100,000 ? $500,000?
Did anything cost over 1 million?
What budges do some of these big titles have? It was $44 million for GoW III.
Clearly we aren't going to see soaring budgets and soaring quality on video games.
Yes things will continue to improve, but I just don't see the market as being able to support a $500 million dollar video game.
Highlander
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 10:56:08 PM
bridgera
Saturday, June 26, 2010 @ 1:03:59 AM
The market was very different, that's obvious. For growth, how's it going to continue ?
That type of market growth isn't going to continue.
I don't see a game being so awesome and selling so many copies that it gets enough sales to account for something like a .5 billion dollar budget.
The only real limitations on these games isn't going to be the technology, it's going to be the budget.
Last edited by bridgera on 6/26/2010 1:06:38 AM
Highlander
Saturday, June 26, 2010 @ 11:38:17 AM
Fane1024
Saturday, June 26, 2010 @ 4:56:13 PM
High is right about S-E knowing nothing about the potential of the PS3, though.
Last edited by Fane1024 on 6/26/2010 4:59:12 PM
DemonNeno
Saturday, June 26, 2010 @ 5:47:49 PM
To be fair, I must include the next gen Xbox.. Imagine what a leap forward THAT would be w/o a RROD!! And unlike the "slim" that just removes the lights, I'm implying an HARDWARE upgrade! :)
Wada needs ta pass that bong down!
bridgera
Sunday, June 27, 2010 @ 1:14:49 AM
Ultimately it's how long you can pay programmers to work on a game, and still turn a profit. You don't have an unlimited untapped market to keep appealing to.
You aren't going to keep seeing factors of 100 increase in budget from the 1980s to the 2010 (again, ignoring inflation). That increase was due to increasing to more and more consumers...
... at some point, you are going to see a limit, because there are a limited number of consumers....
...that's going to limit your budget...
... that's going to limit how much development goes into a game.
At some point it stops being about better and better hardware and it starts being about the budget.
That is what the SE dude was getting at, and yes, I agree with him.
Last edited by bridgera on 6/27/2010 1:16:53 AM
Highlander
Monday, June 28, 2010 @ 3:27:09 PM
But, let's turn this around for a minute. If a game manages to sell 10 million copies at a sticker price of $60, that is $600 million in revenue. Granted only about 40-50% of that get's back to the publisher/developer, but that's still $240-300 million. Like the movie industry not all games will cost $100 million to make, nor should they. Personally I think that if a game costs $100 million to make, then they ought to fire their executive producers and project managers for gross incompetence. But that's just me.
What I am getting at is that games are more and more like movies in terms of their production and their earning potential. The earning potential of a game is based on the audience size, and that audience continues to grow. so the earning potential of a 'blockbuster' game continues to grow.
So I don't agree that we are reaching the limits yet either in hardware or in terms of the cost of making a 'big' game, or in terms of the potential revenue from a big game.
Karosso
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 11:07:25 AM
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We will only have reach the limit when a game console can replicate something like Avatar in real time, something the PS3 can not do.
I meant we are getting closer with each generation but this is not it yet. the PS4 might just reach the photo realistic realm and that will be that for graphics but, until we see that, this round of hardware is not the final frontier.
556pineapple
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 11:09:12 AM
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Highlander
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 11:51:00 AM
SvenMD
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 11:11:21 AM
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Again...3D, virtual reality, true photorealistic graphics. The question of how far has only just begun.
It scares me when a CEO of a gaming company thinks that we are maxed out...it shows that his imagination is non-existant and that he has stopped dreaming of what is possible and then striving to achieve it.
SE has taken so many wrong turns in the past few years...this just adds to the downward spiral.
Qwarktast1c
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 11:17:07 AM
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Jawknee
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 11:19:48 AM
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This douche doesn't know what he's talking about. Like Highlander said, they have only made one AAA game for the PS3 this gen and even that wasn't very good. I'm convinced the Soft part of Square is completely dead.
How did this clown become CEO of Square?
Qwarktast1c
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 11:39:22 AM
johnld
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 2:30:14 PM
main_event05
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 11:21:54 AM
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But in conclusion, its a very bold statement to say that, if i understand correctly, that this is as far as gaming consoles, current and future, will go.
main_event05
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 11:32:54 AM
ro kurorai
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 11:38:26 AM
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DeathOfChaos
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 1:35:48 PM
Oliver
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 11:40:20 AM
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I actually think Wada's comment ties into the universal console article Ben posted. But rather than using one "console", we'll all just be playing games in the cloud.
Last edited by Oliver on 6/25/2010 11:41:01 AM
Highlander
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 11:49:16 AM
To play games in the cloud, there has to be completely universal high speed broadband access available at little to no cost to consumers. Without that, too many potential consumers are disenfranchised and a cloud based system will not work.
I also have to point out that the businesses playing with cloud based solutions are the ones large enough to have the money to play with such expensive and infrastructure intensive technology.
Cloud computing is fine for low bandwidth tasks, but media streaming and game streaming or live online gaming are bandwidth intensive tasks. The present infrastructure simply doesn't support it.
Oliver
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 11:57:14 AM
And just to be clear - I love having my console in my living room. I love going to the store getting a game I've been waiting for. I just think that gaming as I've always known it won't be around forever.
main_event05
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 12:11:35 PM
Underdog15
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 12:21:50 PM
However, I like to analyze what Wada said (we should turn WADA into a silly acronym for something) in terms of the consoles abilities as opposed to any of it's networking. At least that's how I interpreted it.
For example, nothing about FFXIII has any kind of online features, but as Sweedie said earlier, I find it hard to believe they can't go further still.
I really do believe Wada was not commenting on PS3 specifically. I think he's fully aware of the potential, however, if he's honest, they probably are starting to max out the 360. Your system can only be as good as it's weakest part, afterall.
I mean, if he was to come out and say that SOME systems are getting maxed soon, then he would have no credibility to continue to release high quality games, like the FF's, on multiple platforms.
So for me, his comments are meaningless. Any other implication would mean he'd have no grounds for continual multi-platform releases, and he'd soon have to limit himself to one system. And Wada wouldn't make as much dinero that way.
Highlander
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 12:31:26 PM
Bandwidth and availability are the Achilles heel of cloud computing and streaming games. Note, I'm not talking about the delivery of games via download, although 10GB or larger downloads are very long, I'm referring to game streaming such as that proposed by OnLive. With the infrastructure we have now and will have for the foreseeable future, the kinds of gaming we have on the PS3 are not viable via a streaming solution.
Last edited by Highlander on 6/25/2010 12:31:43 PM
fluffer nutter
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 3:13:09 PM
Highlander
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 3:18:35 PM
Fane1024
Saturday, June 26, 2010 @ 5:02:49 PM
marcusfrommo
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 12:15:29 PM
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Highlander
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 12:34:30 PM
Besides 256MB of system memory and 256MB of graphics memory was - at the time - not as bad a configuration as it appears now, nearly 5 years after the design was finalized.
Fane1024
Saturday, June 26, 2010 @ 5:08:48 PM
But something's always the bottleneck.
p.s. Imagine how gimped the 360 would be if they had gone with only 256 MB of RAM.
Last edited by Fane1024 on 6/26/2010 5:09:55 PM
coverton341
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 12:21:42 PM
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Technology advances, what does he mean that we can't keep upping the CPU power of a console? If they make a better CPU then why can't they slap it in a console. Does he honestly believe that technology itself is about to peak? Have we reached singularity and I missed it? Where are my biotechnological augmentations?
I'm sorry I'm just not buying into his theory. Everyday we make strides in technology, when was the last time you bought a piece of hardware and then became pissed two weeks later when there was a bigger and better piece of the exact same hardware?
The field keeps moving forward, the ability to put a CPU in a console isn't going to up and disappear. He's deluded.
main_event05
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 12:25:43 PM
coverton341
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 12:42:03 PM
marcusfrommo
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 12:33:10 PM
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Highlander
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 12:39:53 PM
Microsoft's console was always going to have XBL capability. It was widely known that the CPU was coming from IBM which meant it would be a PowerPC based design, and the GPU was coming from ATI. A lot of people thought it would use HD-DVD which was looking like it would be a viable alternative to BluRay, but MS decided to stick with DVD, presumably for cost reasons. As Shams showed last week MS made a last minute decision to add memory bringing the total to 512MB in the 360, and as I remember it, everyone expected the 360 to havd an HDD, but they shipped a SKU without an HDD and told game developers about 6 months before launch that they could not rely on a local HDD.
So I guess the answer is that some things are known some are not. It's always possible that internally the companies know even more, who knows what information they manage to gather without telling anyone...
JackC8
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 12:39:43 PM
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The computer on the Apollo capsule had 36KB ROM and 2KB RAM - now I'm installing a .5 terabyte drive in my video game console. And this doofus can't figure out anything to use it for. Oh well, I'm sure they can copy what other, far more creative developers do in the future.
GuernicaReborn
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 12:43:09 PM
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I can see what he means, even graphical upgrades at this point will be minimal, graphics for games are already incredible. The next logical step for gaming consoles expanding what they can currently do. I guess a good example from this gen is Netflix on all consoles. Next gen, consoles could become comparable to Ipods or Iphones in that there may be hundreds of thousands of different applications we can use in our everyday lives.
coverton341
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 12:56:07 PM
The next gen consoles won't be out for at least another 2 or 3 years, and do you realise the amount of change CPUs go through in that amount of time? It is short-sighted and uninspired to think that that kind of technology is going to stagnate
GuernicaReborn
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 1:24:36 PM
As for each consoles networking capabilities, it is clear that big improvements can be made there. This is the first generation of game consoles where online play is arguably bigger than single player(I said arguably, I don't neccessarily agree with it).
This is from the article ben linked to:
"The innovation that we hear about during this E3 are only minimal additions to the existing technologies," said Wada, presumably talking about Kinect and PlayStation Move. "What is not visible today is the quiet change that's taking place at the network level." --I agree with that.
Highlander
Saturday, June 26, 2010 @ 12:22:19 AM
Jawknee
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 1:43:10 PM
Fane1024
Saturday, June 26, 2010 @ 5:15:36 PM
ABUrabad
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 1:01:53 PM
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as i have been reading before a lot of newly released titles such as GOW3 has increased the graphical optimum limits for games criteria but still it hasnt maxed out the console
but still i still dont care about that as long as developers are being able to release more great games
and beside that i think the cell processor for the ps3 is relatively new for the developers because it was easily invented and still im sure there is a lot of new things to be found and created by newly cell processors that are still under development
the cell processor runs in a very different wat than a normal cpu or than a gpu ,its actually a mix between them
DeathOfChaos
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 1:23:00 PM
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Jawknee
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 3:38:14 PM
Clamedeus
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 3:56:37 PM
Jawknee
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 4:15:28 PM
DjEezzy
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 1:37:08 PM
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Is it me, or does Yoichi sound defeated? Kind of get the tone of depression from him. LOL.
Last edited by DjEezzy on 6/25/2010 1:38:34 PM
DeathOfChaos
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 1:39:12 PM
Highlander
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 1:40:40 PM
BTW both systems have 512 MB of RAM, the 360's 'advantage' is that it can dynamically partition memory between system and video. Typically though it's fair to consider it a split at about 256/256 like the PS3. the PS3 is hard partitioned so there is always 256MB of video memory and 256MB of system memory.
Fane1024
Saturday, June 26, 2010 @ 5:18:49 PM
mehrab2603
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 1:47:46 PM
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Jawknee
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 1:58:24 PM
NoSmokingBandit
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 2:25:59 PM
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Highlander
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 2:40:36 PM
I am hoping that this will be the last generation that relies on the traditional rendering techniques. There should be enough computational power to handle real time ray tracing by the time the next generation launches. If they make that leap, then post processing will be an entirely different prospect. I think that they will actually find that what they lose up front on the sheer processing required, they will regain on the back end with less GPU oomph required.
WorldEndsWithMe
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 3:15:53 PM
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FlyingKickPunch
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 4:09:35 PM
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Fane1024
Saturday, June 26, 2010 @ 5:24:04 PM
Lawless SXE
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 4:32:49 PM
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Truth be told, I can see why he might think that, but we must remember that there are always higher powered computers coming out, which means there is no reason for more highly powered consoles in the future. Not only that, but the integration of networking capabilities is the first step in turning a console into something much more, and I don't just mean a social networking foundation, or an internet browser. Game streaming such as Onlive, as Oliver mentioned, is a definite possibility. Add to that ray tracing rendering, which Highlander mentioned and greater spatial capabilites from the next generation of media discs.
Not only that but gaming, unlike most other entertainment mediums can benefit from technological leaps outside this particular industry. Holographic projection technology. Biomechanics. Physical augmentation. DNA based computing. These are the future, and if they are not implemented into games sooner or later I would be very surprised. Of course, what I say is hugely cost intensive, so it won't happen for a long time yet, but Wada is a bit off-base, because he refuses to glance outside the protective box that he has constructed around S-E headquarters.
That is all.
Peace.
WorldEndsWithMe
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 4:48:36 PM
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Highlander
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 5:09:15 PM
We are getting close to the limits in terms of how small we can make things, but that doesn't mean we can't simply put more on the chip or more chips in the package. For example, IBM is working on technology to stack chips in 3D with inter-chip connections build into the package. I've worked with PCs and small systems since the mid 80's and we've heard these calls for thin client computing of cloud based systems off and on for the last 20 years. I've yet to see anything to persuade me that people are done having their own personal computer system or game system. People bi*** enough about the PSN and XBL services now, can you imagine the level to which they'd take it if their entire gaming experience was dependent on such a service?
Last edited by Highlander on 6/25/2010 5:10:38 PM
Highlander
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 5:11:29 PM
WorldEndsWithMe
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 5:54:29 PM
Ben Dutka PSXE [Administrator]
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 9:02:03 PM
Highlander
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 10:57:11 PM
Highlander
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 11:07:27 PM
Fane1024
Saturday, June 26, 2010 @ 5:26:04 PM
JPBooch
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 5:14:01 PM
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Yes, will get better graphics, but not as big a difference.
It's funny that he is totally discounting 3D by not evenmentioning it. Square has been so lazy these past few years. They pu*** foot around a FFXII remake and pump out one decent title.
I don't think we will see many 3rd part developers embracing 3D until the install base is significant which will take at least 3 years bare minimum. His statements just assures that to me.
fooosie
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 6:21:59 PM
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True photorealism and mechanics that are identical to nature. THAT will be the limit to video games as we know them and that will only be because there will be no reason to improve
Scarecrow
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 6:22:25 PM
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When games start looking like FFX, XII, or XIII FMVs THEN they can actually claim this
At the moment graphics look REALLY good, but not on the same level as ps2 FMVs
---
Oh wait, Squeeeeenix's just lazy and want to mainstream all their games and spend less money optimizing their games.
DjEezzy
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 6:40:28 PM
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shadowscorpio
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 9:20:24 PM
shadowscorpio
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 9:18:38 PM
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StangMan80
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 10:31:04 PM
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BikerSaint
Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 11:59:40 PM
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___________
Saturday, June 26, 2010 @ 4:56:26 AM
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im starting to think $E have the programming capabilities of a freaking 2 year old apprentice!
maybe if they spent a little time optimizing and polishing their code they would not have these issues?
anyone with half a knowledge of programming could max any system out doing basic file operations.

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Highlander
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Friday, June 25, 2010 @ 11:00:50 AM