Pachter: Black Ops Will Not Surpass Modern Warfare 2

If you don't tune into the Pach-Attack! episodes on GameTrailers, you're missing out on a few nuggets of entertainment.

Analyst Michael Pachter is never tongue-tied and always has plenty of opinions and observations, and in the latest Pach-Attack! show, he said the upcoming Call of Duty: Black Ops will not outsell last year's smash, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2. In fact, he says Treyarch's effort "doesn't have a prayer" in comparison. Essentially, his argument is this- assume that all twenty million of those people who bought MW2 are ready to buy another shooter this year (which he doesn't buy, because so many are still hooked on MW2 online). There's also the competition to think about; he believes the FPS sales will have to be split between Black Ops, Medal of Honor, and Halo: Reach. He believes that people won't get both MoH and the new CoD because both feature a modern warfare setting and are awfully similar in nature, which is a fair observation.

Ah, but what about Activision CEO Bobby Kotick's claim that Black Ops would have the biggest launch "in the company's 31-year history" and the game will be on pace to top MW2's record-crushing sales? Pachter's response to this prediction:

"I think he needs to adjust his medication."

Let's also not forget that Black Ops is sort of like a new IP within the Call of Duty franchise; MW2 already had millions of established fans after the immense success of the first Modern Warfare. And yes, this year's fall FPS competition is much stiffer, and both MoH and Reach are lookin' good. What say you, gamers? Can Black Ops top MW2 in the sales department? Has CoD just gotten bigger in the past year?

Related Game(s): Call of Duty: Black Ops

Tags: call of duty, call of duty black ops, treyarch

8/8/2010 8:55:40 PM Ben Dutka

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Comments (65 posts)

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Pandacastro
Sunday, August 08, 2010 @ 9:52:51 PM
Reply

I think it wont sell much as mw2 because that came out last year. They should at least wait another year.

2 up, 2 down

Killa Tequilla
Sunday, August 08, 2010 @ 11:09:24 PM

I OWNED&POWNED in Mw2. Will too in Black Ops! ^_^

3 up, 10 down

kevinater321
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 12:04:55 AM

congrats...

7 up, 4 down

Snaaaake
Sunday, August 08, 2010 @ 9:59:03 PM
Reply

Maybe it will sell more, but won't sell as fast.

0 up, 3 down

Bugzbunny109
Sunday, August 08, 2010 @ 10:16:29 PM
Reply

I agree with Pachter because MW2 was one of the most hyped games in history.

7 up, 1 down

WorldEndsWithMe
Sunday, August 08, 2010 @ 10:25:59 PM
Reply

MW2 was a fluke.

7 up, 3 down

kraygen
Sunday, August 08, 2010 @ 10:28:11 PM

You're back, did you have a wild weekend getaway?

You were missed.

2 up, 2 down

WorldEndsWithMe
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 2:08:49 AM

You could put it that way... and boy does my head hurt. Thanks, good to be back.

4 up, 2 down

Qubex
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 4:48:52 AM

We missed you World... :)

Q!

"play.experience.enjoy"

2 up, 0 down

gangan19
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 12:34:33 PM

what do you mean by fluke?, it was advertised the right way since almost the whole world bought it for the cheesy multiplayer.

2 up, 1 down

WorldEndsWithMe
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 2:55:41 PM

A fluke that such a mediocre game could sell that much, as in like, I DON'T see it happening again.

2 up, 0 down

kraygen
Sunday, August 08, 2010 @ 10:27:45 PM
Reply

I think there were too many people disappointed by MW2 for everyone to be as eager to buy black ops. Plus xbots are so blindly in love with halo that some of them who don't have as much money will have to choose between the 2 and you know they'll pick halo.

Some people will most likely pass on black ops completely for Moh, so pachter may actually have it right for once.

I'm not saying black ops won't sell well, just not as well, there are still plenty of fps nuts to buy plenty of everything.

5 up, 1 down

bigrailer19
Sunday, August 08, 2010 @ 11:07:40 PM

I dont think MW2 will affect Black Ops in anyway!

Although I dont think it will outsell MW2, Black Ops has four very big things going for it! One being that it has the Call of Duty name. Two most gamers are smart enough to know that both games have very different developers. Three there are tons of FPS fans and regardless if they buy it day one or not Christmas is right around the corner, and four Zombies!

2 up, 0 down

kevinater321
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 12:06:55 AM

Obviously the "xbots" would choose Halo, because Halo is a great game. Much better than CoD imo.

2 up, 6 down

godsman
Sunday, August 08, 2010 @ 11:01:15 PM
Reply

I am pretty sure it'll outsell World at War. Activision overhyping the game will give them maybe a couple hundred thousand more sales, but that's about it. It won't outsell MW2.

0 up, 0 down

bigrailer19
Sunday, August 08, 2010 @ 11:03:41 PM
Reply

I dont think it will sell more! But I do think as a whole it will be a better game. As was W@W! I do think it will outsell, W@W though!

0 up, 0 down

RockhounD
Sunday, August 08, 2010 @ 11:04:17 PM
Reply

Ultimately, we shouldn't really care if it sells more than MW2. Black Ops has the potential to be the first GREAT Nam shooter. That's something that many people have been wanting for a long time. I'm sure it'll sell enough to merit a sequel at least.

0 up, 0 down

Kangasfwa
Sunday, August 08, 2010 @ 11:08:45 PM
Reply

"I think he needs to adjust his medication."
-LOL

2 up, 0 down

Alienange
Sunday, August 08, 2010 @ 11:17:12 PM
Reply

The grand majority of those 20 million gamers are not fool enough to think that Black Ops will be as good as a MW game. A lot will buy it because it'll be a good fps, but no, it won't sell the way MW2 did.

6 up, 1 down

Godslim
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 4:32:05 AM

have to agrree man singleplayer and mp wise mw is way better

0 up, 1 down

Qubex
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 7:44:40 AM

Alienange... "Black Ops" will probably be a good FPS no doubt... production values should be high... however the thought of it actually being part of the CoD series introduces "fatigue"... unless one simply thinks of it as another chance in beating up other in multi-player and leveling up as quickly as possible...

It seems to be more about player competition in multi-player than anything else. Even the SP campaign is not as important as people getting the game disk, putting it in... and trying to get to the top of the pile before anyone else...

I think it is this intra-competitive ideology the keeps people coming back for more...

It is like a drug I tell, a drug...

Q!

"play.experience.enjoy"

Last edited by Qubex on 8/9/2010 7:45:02 AM

1 up, 0 down

Hezzron
Sunday, August 08, 2010 @ 11:54:49 PM
Reply

I don't think Black Ops will outsell it. Any game will have a hard time beating MW2 in sales.

Both versions of MW2 (360 & PS3) are still selling great to this day. They are consistently on Amazon's Top 25 Bestsellers in video games.

0 up, 0 down

playSTATION
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 12:12:54 AM
Reply

i for one am leaning towards MoH rather than black ops.

2 up, 1 down

Danny007
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 12:31:17 AM
Reply

We'll just have to see. I think Black Ops looks really good and I'm the only one left on this planet that doesn't have Modern Warfare 2. I'm definetly going to preorder it. Especially with the $20 video game credit on Amazon.com

Last edited by Danny007 on 8/9/2010 12:32:13 AM

0 up, 0 down

Godslim
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 4:33:33 AM

if u think black ops looks good y didnt u get mw2 dude?

0 up, 0 down

sunspider13
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 6:30:54 AM

You're not the only one that doesn't have MW2. Don't need it.

3 up, 1 down

Gordo
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 12:45:06 AM
Reply

I bought MW2 and traded it a week later. Will not be buying anymore of these...

Take one sale off of the 20 million!

4 up, 2 down

maxpontiac
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 12:50:31 AM
Reply

I know I won't be purchasing another COD, especially one that is close to GT5..

2 up, 2 down

Gordo
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 1:59:06 AM

The only reason I would buy MW3 is to trade it in for GT5...

3 up, 3 down

Nickjcal
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 12:52:25 AM
Reply

Halo Reach is on my top priority list.

0 up, 5 down

booze925
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 1:00:28 AM
Reply

when you're shooter was the biggest entertainment launch in history, then how do u surpass it?
i have a lot of doubt that black ops can surpass modern warfare 2 in sales.. but in overall quality...? we will have 2 wait and see
EDIT: we also shouldn't forget black ops already surpassed modern warfare 2 in pre-order sales. a good sign?

Last edited by booze925 on 8/9/2010 1:03:46 AM

0 up, 0 down

just2skillf00l
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 2:04:52 AM
Reply

If Black Ops outsells MW2...I'll...I'll...I couldn't think of anything clever to say.

0 up, 0 down

StangMan80
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 2:14:27 AM
Reply

COD sucks!

3 up, 9 down

snypa_69
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 5:12:33 AM

No it doesnt!!

3 up, 2 down

Underdog15
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 9:27:01 PM

Thank you, StangMan, for that informative contribution you have made to the discussion. /sarcasm/

lol

0 up, 1 down

___________
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 3:02:29 AM
Reply

it wont outsell MW2 because its made by treyarch, they have one 10th of the fan base IW has!
im positive this will be better, but well as MW2 proves quality does not dictate sales.
it should, you would think sales a good make make, you would think a game that sells 12M units would be better than a game that sells 3M units.
but GTAIV, the whole halo series, the whole gears series, CODMW, COD MW2, RDR would prove otherwise.

0 up, 1 down

hobgoblin
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 3:41:41 AM
Reply

Whether it beats it or not is of no concern to me. Having bought COD's for the last 3 years (MW2, WaW, and MW), and being thoroughly disappointed with last years effort, I've no intention of buying this come release day. I'll give it a rent instead.

3 up, 1 down

Losianose
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 3:56:49 AM
Reply

I stopped playing Call of Duty after realizing they would release something every year and I wouldn't get to thoroughly enjoy one game before the next installment came out. Halo and Metal of Honor should be interesting however. . .

1 up, 1 down

Godslim
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 4:34:08 AM
Reply

i dont think it will sell as well simply because the mw series is alot better than the ones not made by iw

2 up, 0 down

Qubex
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 4:51:43 AM
Reply

Pratchette hasn't said anything new at all... we all know this, we all know that a "commodious" CoD means ever decreasing sales and CoD fatigue...

We will see, but I feel eventually Wactivision will have have to do something different, unless I have really underestimated the sheep like stupidity of gamers who have been brainwashed by the CoD series...

Q!

"play.experience.enjoy"

0 up, 0 down

snypa_69
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 5:19:17 AM
Reply

Day one purchase for me!! All CoD games are brilliant.
Anyone who says MW2 was a weak game needs their head examining!! MW1 was brilliant also. And W@W also was good. Also even COD3 was good (albeit a little glitchy on PS3).
I have been playing these games since the first one on the PC and have not seen a drop in the production or gameplay quality.
Sure they are very similar but they are all FPS games so you should expect this. The story always changes and is always pretty solid also.
Thats just the single player I been mentioning.... dont even let me get started on how good the online mode is!!! lolz.
Altho i do hope there are vehicles in Black ops. I missed them in MW2. Tanks ftw!!
Um is there anything i have missed in my love for the Fps known as CoD? If so let me know?
Peace out!!
Snypa

3 up, 5 down

tridon
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 10:39:18 AM

How about Medal of Honor? Excited for that, too?

1 up, 1 down

snypa_69
Tuesday, August 10, 2010 @ 5:37:28 AM

Cant believe you jokers thumbed me down for liking a game?? Thats well outta order!!
Not just any game either "highest grossing game ever" Read it and weep RPG boys!!

Anyways.... Tridon. I was well psyched for MoH. Started off with allied assault on PC. And all the add ons. Well wicked game!! But after playing the Beta of the latest I have not been too impressed :-(
I am really disappointed as it looked so damn good!!!

0 up, 2 down

tridon
Tuesday, August 10, 2010 @ 5:57:34 AM

Yeah, it definitely had some hiccups, but then again, it's only a beta. The point of a beta is to work out all those little bumps so it's kick-ass by the time of release. I have a good feeling about this MoH. I believe MoH is the innovator of the war-FPS genre and that there would be no CoD without it. MoH was amazing back in the day, but from Rising Sun upwards, the series really went down the pooper. I think this next game is going to return it to its glorious roots.

1 up, 0 down

ed_winchester
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 6:12:51 AM
Reply

Haha Patcher's statement has a 50% chance of coming true. I bet he likes those odds ;-)

0 up, 0 down

ed_winchester
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 6:18:23 AM
Reply

Is Kotick more interested in a quality game or sales figures? Oops silly question
Also Ben how is this a new IP? Something like Vanquish COULD be labelled a new IP but not this

1 up, 0 down

JackC8
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 7:50:41 AM
Reply

I have no idea how it will sell. It seems like people buy MW2 because of the previous MW game, so maybe the fact that this one has a different title means it won't do as well.

Personally, the single player campaign for the new game looks 100 times more interesting than MW2, so who knows; I may pick it up - used - some day in the distant future. I have zero interest in the online component of those games, so meh.

0 up, 0 down

tridon
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 9:10:46 AM
Reply

It's not that Call of Duty is a bad franchise, it's just an overhyped franchise from a much-despised publisher. The developers themselves (Infinity Ward and Treyarch), however, are a very talented group of individuals.

I bought CoD4 when it was released and loved every minute of it. The single player campaign, while short, was memorable and a lot of fun. I never played the online multiplayer much since that isn't really my cup of tea, but I definitely enjoyed going one-on-one against my brother and friends in the local multiplayer mode. With just that mode being included, the game received big brownie points from me. There's too many games these days that are online multiplayer only, and I miss the days when you could play in your own household against friends and family.

A year later, when W@W was released, I decided to rent it and give it a shot. This game returned the series to its WW2 roots and for that alone, I wasn't too psyched for it (IMO, the World War 2 era has now been down to death in the video game industry). With that being said, I did find the game to be fun. Not fun enough to purchase, though. Treyarch, for me, are a hit-and-miss company (for example, I loved their Spider-Man games, but didn't like their Quantum of Solace at all), and while this game was definitely a hit gameplay-wise, the story was just dull and boring to me.

The release for MW2, while overhyped to an insane degree, pumped me up quite a bit. I loved CoD4, so I was definitely excited for its sequel (enough so to pre-order the Hardened Edition). After the INSANELY short campaign, I came to the conclusion that I was done with the CoD franchise. This game included a couple memorable moments, but overall, the story was not enjoyable and seemed WAY too rushed. I had realized that with Activision rushing these games out every year, that future sequels would most likely suffer the same fate. I heard that the multiplayer is apparently "amazing", but with me not caring about MP, I traded this game in almost a week after purchasing it.

When I saw the first trailer for Black Ops, I thought it looked pretty incredible but more of the same than anything. For that, I will not be playing this title and I believe there's a LOT of people out there that feel the same way. For that, I think Black Ops will not top MW2 in sales. It doesn't exactly help that Activision has been receiving tons of bad press this year, either (Bobby Kotick's constant flaunting of how much money he'll be bathing in after Black Ops' release sure won't help either).

I think that CoD's sales with slowly begin to dwindle beginning this year. Medal of Honor is making a big return this year, and to me, that's the innovator of the war-based first-person shooter. Also, the leaders of Infinity Ward have moved over to EA and they're sure to take a dent out of CoD's sales and fanbase. I think Activision got greedy, and for that they'll pay the price. I wish Treyarch all the best with their release of Black Ops, but without the CoD name, it would've been looked at as just another FPS.

2 up, 0 down

Underdog15
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 9:20:16 AM
Reply

I want a game that focuses on WW1. I want to fight the battle at Vimy Ridge! Canada ftw!!

2 up, 1 down

Underdog15
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 9:31:31 AM

They could do a lot from the stories of WW1. Check out this Canadian captain. Read this story about how he got the Victorian Cross (Highest military honor in British and Commonwealth countries.). It's actually pretty hilarious. He and 2 other soldiers bluffed 2 German officers and 75 soldiers into thinking the 3 of them were part of a much larger company... The 77 Germans surrendered to the 3 Canadians. LOL!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thain_Wendell_MacDowell

For our American friends, here's Vimy Ridge. There's a lot to this battle you could take from.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Vimy_Ridge

And this is just one WW1 battle. I want to see an occasional bit about Canadian soldiers in these World Wars! We kicked @$$ man! My grandfather fought in WW2!

4 up, 2 down

tridon
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 10:37:40 AM

Canada FTW, indeed!

I'd also love to see a video game based around the experiences of Canadian soldiers during the first WW, but unfortunately, that'll probably never happen.

1 up, 0 down

packersfan66
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 9:22:05 AM
Reply

Reach will be a better game anyway, it was made exclusively for xbox instead of being multi-plat for xbox

0 up, 1 down

BikerSaint
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 2:12:20 PM

Underdog15,
Thanks for the Canadian history lesson!

It was a very informative read, and especially learning about the underground trench mining & the back & forth trench raids.

R.I.P. to all of our fallen Canadian military brothers.

1 up, 0 down

Amazingskillz
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 10:04:22 AM
Reply

They put Black Opts out too quickly. Bad strategic move on their part. I still haven't play MW2 yet. They should've/or should released Black Ops on December 15. Right before Christmas break. By then the MW2Heads will have had more time to savor the multiplayer. These company's seem out of touch with strategic planning sometimes.

0 up, 0 down

Luiscosmo2
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 10:19:30 AM
Reply

But Black Ops will hav a beta! And people will try it and if they like it then they'll wait for Reach Or MOH

Personaly I wont get either since Im a budget so I may just get FIFA 11 and LBP 2

0 up, 0 down

firesoul453
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 11:02:53 AM
Reply

I will probably get Black Ops used.
Might get reach because exclusives are usually a lot better but IDK about buying a 360 game

0 up, 1 down

gangan19
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 12:35:22 PM
Reply

If there is zombies in black ops most likely i would get it...

0 up, 0 down

dillonthebunny
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 1:14:35 PM
Reply

I want Michael Pachters job... state the obvious and get paid for it. seems thats all he's been doing for the last few years. I could do that.

hell, we all could do that!

2 up, 0 down

packersfan66
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 9:40:15 PM

well it gets reported on this site as news

0 up, 0 down

DjEezzy
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 2:43:07 PM
Reply

MW2 was fun, it was ok. Definitely not the best. Also what story was there in MW2? The only story i got out of it was Russians. LOL.

I'd honestly take anything from the battlefield series over anything from the CoD series. Hell, Battlefield 1943 was basic but was just as much fun as MW2. The whole perks and killstreak thing just didn't do much for me. Whatever happened to just gettin gangster with your rifle, sidearm and grenades?

0 up, 0 down

AcidReign91
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 2:48:39 PM
Reply

The mulitiplayer trailer looks awesome. Much better than MW2. I don't know how happy I am about the remote controlled explosive car though.

http://www.joystiq.com/2010/08/09/call-of-duty-black-ops-multiplayer-vid-reveals-recording-editi/

0 up, 0 down

AcHiLLiA
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 2:53:23 PM
Reply

Good thing about COD black ops, it will be based in the cold war, different weapons including the M16. MW2 multiplayer was a failure. I don't know about the PS3 version (someone reply to me back on that, thanks). Battlefield Bad Company 2 is better than MW2.

0 up, 0 down

KNG201
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 5:16:33 PM
Reply

Patch has a point...Robert does need to up his meds...lol

IMHO...if they focused on COD4 a little longer it would of helped MW2 but they didnt...they said no to vibration said no to more gunz,maps,etc...they was like "IM RIIICCHHH B****CH!" and said hey we can make more money now without trying...

What do rich people do in the morning when they wake up?
Go back to sleep. (Lazy)

0 up, 0 down

Darwin1967
Monday, August 09, 2010 @ 9:48:54 PM
Reply

After seeing the MP teaser, I'm more convinced than ever that I won't be buying the game. RC Cars, Spring Loaded Knives...really?! Game looks like a bunch of SFX crap that won't come close to selling past MW2. Besides, Activision has no motivation to ensure game fixes, updates, etc. and the companies basically ignore major glitches and cheats. No fun playing a buggy game full of cheaters.

0 up, 0 down

DeathOfChaos
Wednesday, August 11, 2010 @ 10:43:19 AM
Reply

It will probably still sell a lot, because a mass majority of gamers love saturated genres in gaming. I believe if you're a gamer, you're not blinded by overused concepts and stay with the fresh games that breathe new life instead of begging to be killed, and FPS needs to slow down... it's already ruined.

0 up, 0 down

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