Analyst: Black Ops To Sell 18 Million In Fourth Quarter

PSXE Side Note- You can probably guess from other sites and sources that this game will dominate news headlines for at least the next week. And while we still vow to cover all the big stories, we also know our readership...so we won't go overboard with the Black Ops articles. Just the stuff that really should be posted as news, like this.

So anyway, unless you've been living under a rock on Mars, you know Call of Duty: Black Ops launches on November 9. And you also know that Activision says it'll smash all sales records yet again, claiming it will be the "biggest entertainment launch of the year," which would result in the "most profitable year" for the mega-publisher. We still don't know if Black Ops can top 2009's Modern Warfare 2 but at least one analyst has an opinion: according to Industry Gamers, Janco Partners' Mike Hickey says the new CoD will go absolutely ballistic on the sales charts...to the tune of 18 million copies worldwide and $818 million for Kotick and Co, and that's just in the fourth quarter. MW2 ended up generating $1 billion between its November 9 launch and January 18, 2010 so if things go well, Black Ops should come out ahead in the same span of time.

So, who's picking it up this week? Or who at least has it on their holiday wish list?

Related Game(s): Call of Duty: Black Ops

Tags: cod black ops, call of duty black ops, black ops sales

11/5/2010 8:51:58 PM Ben Dutka

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Comments (60 posts)

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CONTRABAND
Friday, November 05, 2010 @ 9:59:00 PM
Reply

ill pass, im a story mode guy, and $60 for a game that's only about 4 ta 5 hours just don't add up...

12 up, 4 down

Killa Tequilla
Friday, November 05, 2010 @ 10:07:39 PM

You're going to be one of those guys who will see their whole PSN buddies in Black Ops & you'll be cold and lonely in whatever it is you play.

5 up, 14 down

CONTRABAND
Friday, November 05, 2010 @ 10:14:47 PM

That doesn't bother me 1 bit. I had MWF1 and it was ok, played 2 and just thought ehh, so i have no plans to get this what so ever. i have plenty of games to play that are, well, fun.

16 up, 2 down

WorldEndsWithMe
Friday, November 05, 2010 @ 10:23:29 PM

If he isn't a multiplayer aficionado then why would he be lonely?

8 up, 1 down

Lawless SXE
Friday, November 05, 2010 @ 10:26:45 PM

Killa Tequila,
Not everyone is a sheep. Just because nine-tenths of all people with a console will be picking it up, doesn't mean that the rest of us will feel bad for not picking it up... But then, it probably helps that I'm not on the PSN, and so don't have to see a friends list of 50 people, with 45 of them playing Black Ops. But I'm sure that you can feel free to enjoy the game. I'll be playing what I enjoy playing, same as CONTRABAND.
Peace.

7 up, 3 down

Killa Tequilla
Friday, November 05, 2010 @ 10:30:16 PM

I don't really know the definition of aficionado, but with 18million on the 1st quarter, sounds like everyone will have it. 818 million $ does not look like a little bit to me. Im not a CoD fanboy or a 100% CoD all the time guy, but PSX is the only place I see more than 50% of people that aren't buying it. I bet if you guys played it you'll love it but deny it. You gotta' admit Zombies is freaken awesome.

2 up, 10 down

godsman
Friday, November 05, 2010 @ 10:36:00 PM

That's right. One thing I don't like about CoD games is that I don't feel any continuity between each battle. It just feels like a bunch of scenarios happening one after another. One moment you are on the plane, the next you are on a boat.

Last edited by godsman on 11/5/2010 10:36:21 PM

3 up, 1 down

WorldEndsWithMe
Friday, November 05, 2010 @ 10:36:48 PM

It just means he isn't big on the multiplayer aspect. I've played them all, they are fun with friends for a couple hours, but I judge a game entirely on SP as well.

6 up, 1 down

GuyverLT
Friday, November 05, 2010 @ 11:15:36 PM

I have yet to even pick-up & play a 1st person or 3rd person shooter, that's why I'm probably one of the few handful of people who hasn't played neither one of the Uncharted games not cause I think those games are bad I've seen & heard from anyone who's played that there top of line but shooters in general have never been my cup of tea. I'll probably never be able to get into that genre.

Last edited by GuyverLT on 11/5/2010 11:16:40 PM

2 up, 2 down

booze925
Saturday, November 06, 2010 @ 2:54:51 AM

i just hope if black ops turns out 2 be great, maybe the haters here will give CoD another shot.
if they don't... well to each his own right?

3 up, 0 down

Crabba
Sunday, November 07, 2010 @ 4:58:41 PM

Guyver seriously, even mentioning Uncharted in the same sentence as a CoD game is blasphemy!!!

0 up, 0 down

Underdog15
Monday, November 08, 2010 @ 10:06:16 AM

I'll be getting it because of my real life friends. Aside from that, I couldn't care less what people on my friends list are playing. I will only be playing Black Ops when I have a real life buddy playing at the same time.

As for the zombies... no... it is NOT freakin' awesome. A game about Vietnam should NOT have zombies. I hate zombies... it pisses me off they are putting zombies in this game.... SO SO stupid.

0 up, 0 down

booze925
Friday, November 05, 2010 @ 10:09:29 PM
Reply

well, it may actually deserve its attention and sales.
we will find out tuesday

0 up, 0 down

X_shadowkilla_X
Friday, November 05, 2010 @ 10:10:02 PM
Reply

not buying....but renting (for campaign)

3 up, 1 down

Killa Tequilla
Friday, November 05, 2010 @ 10:11:07 PM
Reply

"So, who's picking it up this week?"

Don't you mean next week?

Anyway I am definitely picking this one up. As I said before, Prestige Edition. Im looking forward to killing Zombies and I just might install a real C4 explosive in the 'survailance control car'. Take it around down town.

Last edited by Killa Tequilla on 11/5/2010 10:11:35 PM

2 up, 9 down

Lawless SXE
Friday, November 05, 2010 @ 10:15:49 PM
Reply

Thanks for letting us know that you want go CoD-crazy. Because that would drive me crazy.

I will actually be a little surprised if it does manage to sell that. I'm actually expecting something closer to 12 million, given that it isn't Modern Warfare. It will end up selling well over 18, but not just in the quarter.

As for the game, I will not be picking it up. The whole CoD fad drives me nuts, and even though it is vastly different to Bioshock, I will be playing those two titles when I finish the Ballad of Gay Tony and have no desire to play another FPS in such close proximity. My only new title for the year is GT5... I think.
Peace.

4 up, 1 down

WorldEndsWithMe
Friday, November 05, 2010 @ 10:25:46 PM

I don't really even consider Bioshock an FPS.

1 up, 0 down

Lawless SXE
Friday, November 05, 2010 @ 10:28:20 PM

Yeah, I sort of agree with you there, but the mechanics for it are largely those of an FPS, so... it only backs up my argument for not wanting to play CoD :P
Peace.

1 up, 0 down

godsman
Friday, November 05, 2010 @ 10:40:26 PM

I have to check my numbers, but I thought MW2 is barely making 20 millions. This analyst is predicting 18 million in one quarter? Sometimes I feel like that Activision and the "analysts" are forcing you to buy the games rather than you really want it.

Activision: This game is awesome, will be better than MW2.

Guy: I don't know.....

Analyst: It will outsell MW2.

Guy: Um....

Activision: You want this game!

Guy: I do?!

Analyst: Everyone else will own a copy!

Guy: Alright....

6 up, 1 down

Killa Tequilla
Friday, November 05, 2010 @ 10:45:07 PM

LOL
The 'guy' looks like it could be me.

2 up, 3 down

Temjin001
Friday, November 05, 2010 @ 11:21:27 PM

Who classifies genre types, anyway?
There isn't consistency between genre descriptors either.
They're like anything and everything. Just a melting pot of low-level observations.

In movies the genre at least describes the format or mood of the content: Comedy, Action, Suspense etc.

But lets look at games.
FPS= First Person Shooter. Okay so we're talking about the perspective of the game and it's shooter. Great, but people don't recognize games like Bioshock as an FPS.

RPG= Role Playing Game
Well don't I play the role of someone or something in every game?
And what visual perspective is it in anyway? Is Oblivion a 1st/3rd person RPG? No Temjin, it's a western RPG. Okay, so hemispheres are now part of the descriptor.

And what the heck is Heavy Rain?
Oh I got it, a MG-QTE. Movie, game, quick time event game.

Oh yeah, then there's Shenmue with it's revolutionary "FREE" game play.
It was something like Full, Reactive, Eyes, Entertainment... oh man, that's narrowing it down...

2 up, 1 down

WorldEndsWithMe
Friday, November 05, 2010 @ 11:35:10 PM

Good point Temjin. The problem is that genres used to be fairly separate. Now they mix and match like crazy. RPG basically meant anything that looked and played similar to FF or Dragon Warrior (Quest now).

0 up, 0 down

Lawless SXE
Saturday, November 06, 2010 @ 12:18:44 AM

You've got a great point there Temjin. There are, of course, overarching indicators as to what type of game you are playing, but when it comes down to the nitty gritty and really trying to identify them it becomes much harder. Even for what would appear the most clear cut games, there are distinctions. GT for example is a driving game, it is also a simulator, so you get the sub genre of driving simulator.

I think that it is better to simply refer to games as GAMES, but then you don't have that distinction as to what you are playing. I think that it is simply better to stick to the most obvious indicators as to a games identity. If not, you end up getting so far bogged down in the intricacies that you lose sight of it.
Peace.

0 up, 0 down

Temjin001
Saturday, November 06, 2010 @ 2:03:40 AM

Yeah, it probably has something to do with how games are still evolving and changing. I guess Joe Whoever sees the game and recognizes the most distinguishing element of the game and affixes a genre class to it. "Oh, this Wolfenstein 3D game is really different. It's not like our normal side-scrolling shooters, lets call it a first person shooter." Then it just sort of sticks for over a decade.

I think, maybe, there's a sequence of descriptors that could be used as a standard that would apply to a very broad selection of games. For example, lets take Metal Gear.

Stealth Action (the design format)
Cinematic (the presentation)
3rd Person Perspective (the primary playing perspective)
Military operative, sci-fi (content)

Gran Turismo would read as this.
racing~simulator~adjustable perspective~automobiles

Grand Theft Auto
action~cinematic~3rd person~modern criminal

Madden
sports-action~simulator~3rd person~football

Heavy Rain
interactive-action~cinematic~variable perspective~criminal investigation

Uncharted 2
action~cinematic~3rd person perspective~adventure treasure exploration

Tetris
action~puzzle~fixed format perspective~geometric shapes

Basically, I think if there was some sort of movement to try and unify the way we categorize and think about identifying video games there'd be less confusion as to how a game should be viewed as.
Like maybe that new MoH game would've been better understood if it had an identity that clearly separated itself from CoD.

Last edited by Temjin001 on 11/6/2010 2:07:54 AM

1 up, 0 down

Lawless SXE
Saturday, November 06, 2010 @ 2:30:34 AM

Now that is a very interesting concept. It would allow a closer impression of the game on hand, without leaving people completely confused as to what to expect. But even then, it could be difficult to classify certain games, such as FFXIII... You've obviously put a great deal more thought into the classifications than I have, but I can't really think of how to do it for that game in particular.

A very in-depth subgenre system I feel would work better. For example, you would have for FFXIII - futuristic-fantasy, hybrid-combat-system RPG. Or CoD - modern-war, arcade-leaning first-person-shooter. The system would be very similar to the one that you propose, only slightly more streamlined, and with variants for each individual game rather than having a set of overarching ideals.

Either way, I agree that there needs to be a greater emphasis on the differentiation between games than there is for movies. Simply because there seems to be a more splintered audience as a result of the interactivity. I would really love to see someone trying to implement this.

Wait... How did we get from the differences between Bioshock and CoD to offering ideas to completely overhaul the genre definitions? Oh... we're terrible.
Peace.

0 up, 0 down

Temjin001
Saturday, November 06, 2010 @ 10:50:34 AM

I think RPG's as we know them just need to stop being called RPG's. It's an antiquated way of thinking about them. Calling a game a RPG could be likened onto creating a resume that only claims that I'm HUMAN and I'm a male white man. I think categorizing games in a shopping store should be based on the CONTENT (like movies) rather than the game format. I can't tell you how many people I encounter who can't help but mention Alan Wake and Heavy Rain in the same sentence when they're two fundamentally totally different games. I think people simply think of games from a content perspective.

So working from the list of "design~presentation~perspective~content"
and shooting from the hip I'd call FFXIII

linear storytelling, class building~cinematic~3rd person~sci-fi/fantasy

Oblivion would be
non-linear storytelling, class creation~simulator~adjustable perspective~fantasy

FFIX would be
linear storytelling, class building, turn based~cinematic~3rd person~fantasy

I don't think what I have going is perfect, but it's a start at trying to think about categorization differently. I think the system we use today is archaic and mis-repretational of what games are now.
Really can you think of another multi-billion dollar industry that doesn't properly categorize their product?

And, yeah, way off topic, sorry =/

Last edited by Temjin001 on 11/6/2010 10:51:43 AM

0 up, 0 down

Lawless SXE
Saturday, November 06, 2010 @ 1:34:37 PM

Aye, that makes sense. To redefine RPGs as class customisation games is a brilliant idea. We really should get onto this, because, as you say, gaming is the only entertainment medium that has such a huge variety of availability in such a small set of frames. We need distinction.

But this is my last post here, so Peace.

0 up, 0 down

Mista
Friday, November 05, 2010 @ 10:16:17 PM
Reply

Wasn't sure anyone has said what the length of the sp was yet? I have 2 buddies with moded 360 copies already, might get one tomor and see how the sp is. If it's decent I'll get it sometime soon but not pay full price after the milk job MW2 was. I have to admit liking to play local mp with friends and do occasionally play a few online rounds here and there. It's more mindless fun than anything but I play a array of online games across all genres, but %90 of my gaming time is definitely spent on sp experiences.

Last edited by Mista on 11/5/2010 10:19:19 PM

1 up, 1 down

CONTRABAND
Friday, November 05, 2010 @ 10:21:44 PM

I don't really know how long the story is, i just know how short the last few were. As big as the MP is for COD im not expecting much of a SP experience.

1 up, 1 down

booze925
Saturday, November 06, 2010 @ 2:44:50 AM

despite the short length of CoD games, you gotta admit the quality of them (especially 4) are top notch.
i personally judge games by the single player quality, which is why i love UC2, and i plan on completing the campaign before i even touch multi. and from what ive seen and heard, the black ops campaign may just be THE SP campaign for CoD that we've been waiting for.
come tuesday, we will all know for sure. save your judgement until then.

2 up, 1 down

Spineshank
Saturday, November 06, 2010 @ 6:35:26 AM

Its going to be 20 hours long and cod5's story was great.

1 up, 2 down

WorldEndsWithMe
Friday, November 05, 2010 @ 10:34:37 PM
Reply

I don't mind the articles on it cuz I know it's a big game, I do mind the insanity of it all. I'll read the review for sure because you can't trust the gamer's opinions. The fans will think it's a 10 even if it's a steaming pile of donkey poop and the detractors will say it sucks no matter what (not unlike myself).

But I know I'll wind up playing it split screen with friends because they are CoD nuts and will force me. They've been hypnotized into the mediocrity, so I have no chance of playing better games with them because that's all they'll play.

BTW, has anyone looked at the visuals of Black Ops versus Killzone 3? It's like a generation apart.

2 up, 1 down

Killa Tequilla
Friday, November 05, 2010 @ 10:40:05 PM

Dude like I said before, the difference from KILLZONE1 to KILLZONE2 graphically is as noticeable as KILLZONE2 to KILLZONE3! And just a beta I played. It looks beautiful.

BTW Ben do you remember me posting a comment on energy exploding & jamming the radar for a couple of secs? Did you experience that also?

2 up, 4 down

godsman
Friday, November 05, 2010 @ 10:46:05 PM

Haha... I'm new to console gaming. I just started this generation. My earlier games were GT5P, MGS4, Ucharted series. I was spoiled enough to believe that ALL console games always look that nice and detailed.

4 up, 0 down

sirbob6
Friday, November 05, 2010 @ 10:49:51 PM

Killa, that explosion is awesome. I think Euro Gamer summed it up the sound of it the best,
"Guerrilla can only have captured by recording two Boeing 747s having sexual intercourse"

Last edited by sirbob6 on 11/5/2010 10:50:27 PM

2 up, 0 down

sirbob6
Friday, November 05, 2010 @ 10:46:48 PM
Reply

I know that I will pass and after MW2 most of my xbot CoD nuts said they won't buy the game. The only reason I might pick it up later on is if the zombie mode is in fact the leaked one where you can be JFK, Nixon, and Castro. However that would be very far down the line.

1 up, 0 down

BikerSaint
Friday, November 05, 2010 @ 11:55:49 PM
Reply

To quickly sum up my COD purchase....

Short single player campaign...check
I don't do multi-player....check

equals=

Used $20 Bargain bin purchase later...checkmate!

2 up, 2 down

AcHiLLiA
Saturday, November 06, 2010 @ 12:31:13 AM

yah, later in the future I'm getting my used copy cheaper on ebay.

0 up, 0 down

Alienange
Saturday, November 06, 2010 @ 12:36:00 AM
Reply

Looks like I can get Black Ops with a $20 credit so I'm going to grab one. MW and MW2 were the best online experiences this gen so far so I'm going to give Treyarch one more chance to prove that they can keep up with the boys who used to be at IW.

2 up, 0 down

dkmrules
Saturday, November 06, 2010 @ 1:09:10 AM

Dude yes, amazon FTW!!! I literally just bought this tonight. The $20 will come in handy when I want to buy LBP2. When is it releasing anyways? Wasnt it in November?

0 up, 0 down

Lawless SXE
Saturday, November 06, 2010 @ 1:23:50 AM

Oh, dkm... No, it got pushed back to January 16th. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news...

1 up, 0 down

AcHiLLiA
Saturday, November 06, 2010 @ 2:33:24 PM

expect for the hacking and Glitching part.

2 up, 0 down

MadPowerBomber
Saturday, November 06, 2010 @ 1:17:06 AM
Reply

I'll be getting it. I'm intrigued with the storyline for some reason. Maybe it's taboo? I dunno. I'll play my hand at the multiplayer, but to tell the truth, this one, just like World at War, was sold to me on the fact that it has an incredible zombie related game in it.

And, yes, I'm well aware that that's a lot of money to spend on a game for a well done side-bar add-on. Heh.

0 up, 0 down

jaybiv
Saturday, November 06, 2010 @ 1:35:28 AM
Reply

i'm definitely getting it. i can see how some of you feel now that cod has crossed over into the mainstream. this phenomenom happens more and more due to the over saturation of marketing in the 24 hour newscycle era. like your favorite underground band is appearing on the morning talk shows. you're a little happy for them, but you hate that they have new found fans who know nothing about the band other than what they hear on the radio. if activision tries to go mmo or online only, they can kiss my 60 bones goodbye.

0 up, 0 down

Drake88
Saturday, November 06, 2010 @ 1:43:13 AM
Reply

to tell the truth, its story is crazy interesting. better than mw&mw2 together.

1 up, 1 down

gangan19
Saturday, November 06, 2010 @ 1:51:33 AM
Reply

thats killzone 3 numbers lol

0 up, 2 down

LegendaryWolfeh
Saturday, November 06, 2010 @ 2:26:39 AM
Reply

Yep, I'll be out there at 12am picking up my Prestige edition at the gamestop with about 100 other people...sadly I'll be near the end of that line, lol..won't be there till 11pm =( don't get off work till then, tis why I'm going at all, might as well since I don't work the following day.

0 up, 0 down

SmokeyPSD
Saturday, November 06, 2010 @ 4:59:56 AM
Reply

Still won't be me included in that, don't even have any of the Modern games.

0 up, 1 down

Dreno
Saturday, November 06, 2010 @ 10:30:33 AM

I'm pretty stoked about this game. The only game I want more than this though, is wkc2. I'm really looking forward to the nazi zombies, as that's really the only thing my girl likes about my type of games. I got her stuck on l4d 1&2 but sold my xbox for my lcd tv, better to play ps3 with haha. So hopefully shell like blowin some zombies away on black ops.anyways, I really do hope the sp campaigne is longer than mw2's. And I hope atleast SOME of the mp maps are bigger than mw2's. But I will be 1 of the many people to be going to wally world at 1130pm on the 8th to pick this game up the minute it comes out. Helps to live in a very small city.

And on a side note, ben I read your topic about the cop merge with ff, it was interested. Id definatly try it if it were to really happen. Although I really could only imagine a handful of people playing as cloud in that game due to all the fps hardcore people not knowing who he was. Although I would rather see squall with the gunblade in that game. Makes more sense.

0 up, 0 down

Ultimadream
Saturday, November 06, 2010 @ 6:06:02 AM
Reply

I don't intend to, My flatmate only wants to get it for the Zombie gimmick.

0 up, 1 down

JackC8
Saturday, November 06, 2010 @ 7:13:55 AM
Reply

Nope, I'm afraid I won't be on the bandwagon. Just not a genre that interests me in the slightest.

1 up, 1 down

___________
Saturday, November 06, 2010 @ 8:09:35 AM
Reply

no way!
i honestly cant see this selling any more than 12M units, the debacle with IW and the fact that its treyarch making it is going to hurt the sales.
treyarchs track record certainly is not helping them!

1 up, 0 down

Clamedeus
Saturday, November 06, 2010 @ 11:40:51 AM
Reply

I'm only getting it because my best friends are getting it that's basically it, the SP is pretty short and confusing though.

This will probably be my last COD game, but i can't predict the future though.

0 up, 0 down

ctd669
Saturday, November 06, 2010 @ 1:20:14 PM
Reply

I won't give Activision one DIME!... So you can put me on the " Not getting" list.

1 up, 1 down

DazeOfWar
Sunday, November 07, 2010 @ 10:46:22 AM
Reply

I wasn't planning on picking this up after the crap with MW2 but after finally sitting down and watching the new multiplayer games and all the customization I was sold. I actually enjoyed W@W mp over MW2. Also who doesn't really enjoy killing zombies?

0 up, 0 down

Steel
Sunday, November 07, 2010 @ 11:22:19 AM
Reply

Sometimes I wonder if some people are so against being portrayed as a "Sheep" that they will shoot themselves in the foot by avoiding a resonable game experience.

If it's not for you, thats great, but if your just saying its not for you so you dont feel that people will question your credibility as a "gaming critic" or whatever it is you are afraid you will be seen as by playing a game that alot of other people will.. your sad.

Don't fight it because you dont want to fit into the "gaming noob crowd" because then you are just hurting yourself. If you want to play it, then play it. If you don't, then don't.

0 up, 0 down

crunchy_nut_kid
Monday, November 08, 2010 @ 2:42:04 AM
Reply

i like cod, but i dont love it. i only hate the online cause i get angry at noobs, AND YOU WONT LIKE ME WHEN IM ANGRY!!!!!

0 up, 0 down

crunchy_nut_kid
Monday, November 08, 2010 @ 2:42:06 AM
Reply

i like cod, but i dont love it. i only hate the online cause i get angry at noobs, AND YOU WONT LIKE ME WHEN IM ANGRY!!!!!

0 up, 0 down

Nynja
Monday, November 08, 2010 @ 2:17:44 PM
Reply

Correction:

In light of recent events at a GameStop hopefully not near you...

18 million - 100.

Last edited by Nynja on 11/8/2010 2:17:55 PM

0 up, 0 down

shootu
Thursday, November 11, 2010 @ 11:14:05 PM
Reply

@ CONTRABAND You wont play online cause you cant and I owned you. So pull up your dress and stop crying like a little school girl!

1 up, 0 down

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