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Pachter: Battlefield 3 Might Steal Away Some CoD Fans

The ultimate shooter showdown is only months away, and one analyst believes EA might just cut into Activision's gargantuan lead.

While it's inevitable that Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 will outsell Battlefield 3 by a wide margin, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter says two factors could cause long-time CoD fanatics to "defect" to EA's camp. The first involves the Call of Duty Elite premium subscription service, which was met with some negative feedback when it was first announced.

"We expect EA’s game [Battlefield 3] to perform exceedingly well, eclipsing the 6.5 million units sold by the last iteration, and think that Activision’s introduction of Call of Duty Elite (its premium subscription service) could cause a small number of loyal Call of Duty players to defect to EA’s game."

The other factor relates to quality; Pachter adds that if Battlefield 3 receives a 90+ average review score on Metacritic, even more Call of Duty fans will gravitate towards EA. Of course, at the end of the day, MW3 could outsell the 20+ million wonder Black Ops - the best-selling video game of all time in the US and UK - while BF3 might struggle to hit 7 or 8 million units.

Well, such is the way of the craze.

Related Game(s): Battlefield 3

Tags: michael pachter, battlefield 3, mw3, modern warfare 3

7/11/2011 2:51:04 PM Ben Dutka

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Comments (38 posts)

Deathb4Dishonor
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 3:13:01 PM
Reply

Well that's obvious... Especially with that primium subscription fee for MW3... I for one can't wait for battlefield 3

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matt99
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 3:16:57 PM
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I'd take 'only' selling 7 or 8 million copies and having a 90+ score over 20 million and a mediocre score any day.

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Godslim
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 6:29:10 PM

funny that the mw series has had good scores.....

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StangMan80
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 9:23:09 PM

Don't see how that comment could get that many down thumbs.
Maybe it was how it was worded. because I give MW1 a 9/10 But giving us basicly the same game ever since, the games around it get much better. SO the scores drop. That of course is in the minds of any one who is not bias and is a real gamer.

it's a wonder how COD survives... Somthing us gamers may never know.

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Excelsior1
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 3:28:35 PM
Reply

i really don't see the cod elite program having a big impact on mw3. preorders for mw3 are even higher than the last cod game. people buy cod to play with their friends. i doubt they are even particularily aware of cod elite. they won't care becuase they'll still be able to play online with their friends.

i prefer activision's way of monetizing the online portion of their game with an optional premium program that dioes not impact the base game vs ea's mandatory online pass system. i wonder if bf3 will have an online pass becuase i noticed crysis 2 did not have one even though it was published by ea.

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Beamboom
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 3:30:51 PM
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Well, those of my friends on psn that often play COD together asked me yesterday to join them in preordering *Battlefield* - not mw3!
That doesn't mean much of course, but at least it's a sign that something is starting to happen. All things must come to an end!

I did join in on that collective preorder btw - gonna be fun with some mp action again. :)

Last edited by Beamboom on 7/11/2011 3:33:05 PM

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Excelsior1
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 3:51:57 PM

@beamboom

yes, all things do come to an end. however, i've learned not to underestimate cod just becuase of how long it has reigned over the fps genre. your friends asking you to join in bf3 preorders might mean something but then again it might not.

i've had some of my psn friends pressuring me to pick up brink but i don't exactly seeing it tearing up the sales charts. i would still consider preorders a better indicator.

even if bf3 manages to some day supplant cod i ask this question...what's really changed? it's still a market oversaturated by military fps.

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Beamboom
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 3:59:58 PM

FPS has always since it first appeared in the gaming world been the best selling genre (at least on PC). That won't change any time soon. And yeah, Battlefield is not *that* different from cod.

Still, I'd just love to see more than one huge giant dominating this genre like COD has. I think it is healthy for the entire gaming world. And of course, it may not mean anything at all that my COD friends have chosen to "change side" now, but I am *absolutely sure* that the "cod era" will come to and end someday. And that shift may, if we are lucky, begin now.


Last edited by Beamboom on 7/11/2011 4:01:41 PM

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Excelsior1
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 5:25:25 PM

fps seemed to have really rose in popularity this gen on consoles. i started gaming on the original ps...it really wasn't known for fps. there were a few, but not many. next gen on the ps2 you had more fps, but i still would not say that was the dominant genre on that system.

i do think the rise of the fps genre on consoles can be traced back to halo and the rise of xbox live. that's probably when you started to see the fps genre become a lot more popular on consoles(xbox in particular), especially the multiplayer. then you get this gen where the military fps genre really seemed to explode. i think the social aspect of the online multiplayer is a big factor in driving a lot of sales in the fps genre. packing a headset with a 1 yr subscription of live is one of smartest things ms has done.

i do agree it's not healthy for the industry to have one single game towering over the others in terms of sales. say cod sells 20 million and bf3 sells 7 million. that's a lot of fps games out there and it's still a pretty unhealthy balance in terms of genre in my opinion.

the cod era may end soon, but i don't see the genre ever suffering the same fate as say jrpgs. turn based jrpgs practicly got killed off in one single gen. the entire jrpg genre is almost on life support, and i think the rise of twitch gaming is a big factor there. i wish there was more balance in sales between genres instead of seeing all those sales in the shooter genre.

Last edited by Excelsior1 on 7/11/2011 5:27:07 PM

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Beamboom
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 @ 3:41:40 AM

Yes ftp may have been slower in winning terrain on the consoles than PC (you'd know that better than I, since this is my first console), and many say it's strange it's so big on consoles at all, since it don't have the movement option of a mouse.

The fps genre in general will remain strong simply cause it's one of the few genres that all gamers to some degree are able to enjoy.
It's the "pop music" of gaming, really.

But just like music and movies are able to keep smaller genres alive it *must* be possible also in gaming. And the first step towards maintaining a wide variety of genres must be to not almost automatically label a release as a "flop" only based on sales numbers.

The gaming segment is so huge now that surely it *must* be possible to make a living also by creating games within the smaller genres.


Last edited by Beamboom on 7/12/2011 3:51:13 AM

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Qubex
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 @ 8:28:27 AM

"It's the "pop music" of gaming, really."...

Great way of putting it BeamBoom...

Q!

"play.experience.enjoy"

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0_o
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 3:31:34 PM
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I want Battlefield 3 right NOW!!

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chedison
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 3:38:51 PM

me too! The wait is KILLING ME

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Clamedeus
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 4:28:58 PM

I can't wait for Battlefield 3 as well.

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coverton341
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 5:25:07 PM

I want Skyrim RIGHT NOW!!!

Oh crap, sorry wrong thread.

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onyotix
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 6:04:13 PM

i want uncharted 3 right now! lol
sorry wrong post! haha

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Clamedeus
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 6:08:57 PM

I also want Skyrim along with Battlefield 3, and Uncharted 3. :p Can't forget Dark Souls as well. :)

Last edited by Clamedeus on 7/11/2011 6:09:40 PM

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Claire C
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 6:55:00 PM

SSSSKKKKKYYYYYYRRRRRRIIIIIMMMMMMM

=)

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A2K78
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 4:08:49 PM
Reply

this talk of BF3 stealing away CoD fans is nonsense and you know why? first of all CoD and BF are two completely different kinds of games e.g CoD is a pure FPS whereas BF is nothing but a MMO-like in the manner of ArmA that focus squarely on multiplayer gameplay. Secondly CoD and BF have long co-existed together and anybody who have been PC gamer will tell you this.

Other than that I would never buy the console version of BF3 given the fact they would lack ability for modding support. The PC version on the other would be the better version should DICE change its mind in the future and make the modding tools avaiable.

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Beamboom
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 4:24:37 PM

There's no modding support on COD on the consoles either, so I hardly see that as an argument why bf could not gain a share of the cod market? Adn BF has always been session-battles just like cod, not a persistent world like the mmos?

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gungrave
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 4:37:44 PM
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I like both franchise. COD for it's hollywood Michael Bay type feel...like The Rock, however I hate the multiplayer....way too many noob friendly perks.

BF3 on the other hand nails down the teamwork aspect on multiplayer. It's not a rare site to see someone driving a tank while having a mechanic ducked behind doing nothing else but repairing it. However the campaign was boring as fcuk. If they nail down the campaign...it's on

COD guarantee will get over 9, ACTIVI$ION will make sure of that. I pre-ordered BF3, I hope they don't let me down with a boring campaign.
Comes down to what you're in the mood for, a Michael Bay type game or a documentary type game without the cheese.

sorry for the long post

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Excelsior1
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 5:41:59 PM

@Gungrave

that's a pretty good way of putting it. i think they can coexist together. cod is also at 60 fps, while bf3 is at 30fps. that alone will set the two games apart in terms of gameplay. the cod games aren't junk. they look pretty good (particulary on the 360) and play great.

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Nas Is Like
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 7:51:10 PM

Great post, gungrave. I have to say that I agree with you on that (excluding the campaign in BF part, as I haven't actually ever played a BF game).

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zork
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 4:46:40 PM
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Ben it already has all of the Socom 4 gamers, you know Socom 4...the game franchise Zipper wrecked.

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bigrailer19
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 6:44:04 PM

They need to release Socom 2 HD, with some added maps and such, and that would be the best thing they could do for Socom right now. That's if they wish to bring it back to what it once was.

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WorldEndsWithMe
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 5:29:13 PM
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I think it will get a boost from people who are tired of playing the same game every year too.

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gray_eagle
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 6:11:04 PM
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campers may try it, once they realize they can't call in an airstrike after getting 10 kills from camping, they'll go back to c.o.d.
maby i should'nt comment, the last c.o.d game i played was c.o.d 4.
BF,i got my butt kicked in just the few minutes i played MP :p
BF, imo is more for experienced players.

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Godslim
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 6:32:42 PM

"BF, imo is more for experienced players"
WHAT?! how lol

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Oxvial
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 6:35:48 PM
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Stop talking about CoD and focus on your own game...but whatever I wouldn't buy this or CoD gaming becomes worse thanks to this hack genre.

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Oxvial
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 7:43:38 PM

My bad thought it was EA, so is Pachter...and his assumptions.

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Nas Is Like
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 7:49:25 PM
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This may well be true for me.

I am a huge CoD fan, ever since playing CoD 4 back in 2008. I've been hooked on them since. Lately though, I'm beginning to get bored of them and have been paying closer and closer attention to Battlefield. I'm really liking what I see so far, so I may (just may) be switching over.

I'll also probably buy Modern Warfare 3 in the month of release, but who knows. Maybe not...

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tryd1
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 8:27:41 PM
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CoD and Battlefield has it's own perks. Although I have more fun destroying buildings with helicopters/ tanks then running around being an army of one.

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sirbob6
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 9:08:02 PM
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Well I will be in group that skips both and enjoys Resistance 3.

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StangMan80
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 9:29:42 PM
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I already know I'm not getting any more COD games. I hate saying that because I like giving every game a chance. But I'm sick of what COD has been doing for so long.

I'm getting BF3!

P.S. I havn't been a COD fan since Cod4:mW.

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DVE2k
Monday, July 11, 2011 @ 11:22:17 PM
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For once Patcher makes sense omg. But in reality MW3 is still gonna outsell BF3, but by a slim margin. I'm really mad that we dont see any BF3 action on TV (ads) like MW3 etc.... The only way BF3 outsells MW3 is to hype the s**t out of it!

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___________
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 @ 4:06:23 AM
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dont be ridiculous!
;)

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cadpig
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 @ 1:04:26 PM
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Most of the hardcore are going to buy both games and be done with it. Really getting bored with these military shooters. I want Skyrim, now

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KNG201
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 @ 3:22:55 PM
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loved cod 4 but after playing it for so long I got bored. not to mention the support activision put behind it or lack there was. we got one map pack and no vibration.(i like vibration in my shooters) then w@w comes out I was like ok lets see. well after a week or two it was back at gamestop. then mw2 comes along and I was like finally a folow up of mw. 900 perks later (3 weeks of play) I returned that. it just felt like they didnt try and out do them selves. after cod4 it just seems like they are just out for the money. Battle field (never played one) looks good and a little more realistic to me so I will give it a try and I know it will satisfy my trigger (x-socom) finger. dont get me started on socom....smh.

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