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Analyst: The PlayStation 4 Is Not Coming In 2012

Everyone was just a touch skeptical when they heard the rumor.

It started with supposed evidence from a Taiwanese manufacturer, stating that production on the PlayStation 4 would actually begin at the end of the this year, and launch in 2012. ...as absurd as that sounds.

Considering Sony's continual claims that they're not thinking about a new PlayStation right now, along with the fact that we saw nothing about a new piece of hardware at E3 (and if the rumor were true, it'd be way too close to avoid hearing about it), we thought little of the headlines. And just to verify that belief, we asked EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich and his reply was unsurprising and doubtless:

"The PlayStation 4 is not coming in 2012. It would simply be crazy for Sony to launch a new console this early. While we do not know when the new consoles will launch, it is safe to say they will likely come in 2013 through 2014."

The 2013/2014 estimate falls in line with what we've heard from other industry analysts and insiders, and it seems like a safe expectation. But the idea of the PS4 launching next year makes little to no sense. Something got lost in the translation; maybe they were referring to the PlayStation Vita...?

Tags: ps4, playstation 4, sony, eedar

7/12/2011 3:04:28 PM Ben Dutka

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Comments (30 posts)

faraga
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 @ 3:19:31 PM
Reply

It would be a stupid move as the release of the Vita would be totally overshadowed by the PS4.

I, for example, am stoked for the Vita and will probably buy it at launch or soon after, though if Sony were to release the PS4 in about the same time period, I'd lose all interest in the Vita and would start hyping the PS4.

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Clamedeus
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 @ 3:39:01 PM

Me too! I might not be able to get it at launch but I will definitely try to get it though. :)

Last edited by Clamedeus on 7/12/2011 3:39:35 PM

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wiiplay
Thursday, July 14, 2011 @ 7:16:21 PM

"It would be a stupid move as the release of the Vita would be totally overshadowed by the PS4."

They did the same thing with the PSP and the PS3. The PSP released in 2005, and the PS3 one year later.

My logic in believing that the PS4 will launch in 2012, is because of the Vita, and the technology that the Vita contains.
The Vita, like the PSP, is capable of producing graphics similar to that of its' console counterpart. So, why would one purchase a brand new PS3, when they can purchase a Vita, which can do just about everything that the PS3 can do, but it's also much smaller, and can be taken pretty much anywhere. The Vita is practically just a mini-PS3.
So, because the Vita is so similar to the PS3, both in technology, and in features/games, Sony will likely release the PS4 one year after the Vita releases, like they did in the past with the PSP and the PS3.


Just my ten cents.

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kevinater321
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 @ 3:55:37 PM
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I think 2013 is a good year for it, as long as it isn't PlayStation move based.By t hen the Vita is a well established handheld and the ps4 won't overshadow the first year of release. I want to see some connectivity between the two though. Maybe even a bundle? the ps4 and psv bundled for $700? Depends how much the ps4 costs to producible i guess.

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Excelsior1
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 @ 4:01:00 PM
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all i know is sony better be ready to luanch when microsoft's next system is ready. they can't afford to let ms get a system out first. i can't think of any scenario where i think luanching later than ms would work becuase of the way the na market has developed. ms is in a much stronger position going into next gen than they were last time.

i think sony is aware of this and will have the ps4 ready to meet the next ms system head on. 2013 feels right. sony will luanch at same time as ms.

Last edited by Excelsior1 on 7/12/2011 4:05:47 PM

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anjpikapp3
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 @ 5:32:44 PM

That is completely wrong. The PS1 was release prior to your beloved CrapBox and the 360 was released to compete with the PS2 (which still has a mountainous library compared to the 360). And so, what is Microsoft's response to the PS3...? Still waiting....

As as you wait for an upgraded 360 (which is what the 360 was to the original), I'll put my money on Sony's next gen then Microsoft's upgraded last gen.

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Ben Dutka PSXE [Administrator]
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 @ 5:39:21 PM

anjpikapp3: Bit of an over-reaction there, friend.

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Excelsior1
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 @ 6:15:25 PM

i don't know what the ps1 has to with this, and i assure i'm not waiting on microsoft's next system. i'm just pointing out how there has been a dramatic shift in marketshare this gen towards ms and i think it would be unwise for sony to let ms get a system out before them. i say this becuase i care about sony's marketshare and don't want to see history repeat itself next gen.

the 360 has been more than a match for the ps3 despite what you think of its hardware. it has held its own, and it practicaly owns the na market. ms has accomplished despite having trouble early on this gen with fualty hardware, and having a system that uses the limmitted dvd format. i'm sorry, it is not a crap system. it is a decent system with a lot of good games, and a great online service. to me, the systems look pretty evenly matched in terms of hardware. sony does have an advantage in the storage capacity of blu ray.

i don't own a 360, and i think the ps3 is a better system, but that does not change what has happened this gen. i stand by my statement i think sony will luanch a next gen system around the same time as ms.

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anjpikapp3
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 @ 6:21:29 PM

Yeah, sorry....bad day at work. But, the fact still stands; the 360 is Microsoft's response to the PS2 and was nothing more the an upgraded Xbox.

I own all systems (PS1, PS2, PS3, Xbox, and the 360) and have made all of them on day 1. However, as i understand that the 360 was released a before the PS3 I don't think that it was a better market move. MS prematurely released their machine and now will have to pay as long as the PS3 is around. Once MS decides to release a new gen, Sony should wait another year and produce something that is already years ahead of MS.

It doesn't matter if MS releases a new console next year, the PS3 will still compete with it and then Sony can wait and produce an even more advanced PS4.

Last edited by anjpikapp3 on 7/12/2011 6:35:04 PM

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Highlander
Wednesday, July 13, 2011 @ 12:45:20 AM

anjpikapp3

Um, not sure what you're smoking. But the 360 is not the MS answer to the PS2. It was not intended to compete with the PS2. The original Xbox was released when? About 18 months *after* the PS2 was. The original Xbox was never, ever intended to compete with PS1, it was always aimed at the PS2. The 360 was designed to steal the HD gaming market before Sony could respond. That's why MS cut some corners with hardware design testing and optical drive technology. That bought them a year in the market without a Sony response. But the 360 is the PS3s contemporary, and if you don't understand or see that, it does not bode well for your time here.

As for being nothing more than an upgraded Xbox, that's wrong too since the 360 is based on a completely different CPU architecture and uses an ATI GPU instead of an nVidia one like the original Xbox. If the 360 was simply an upgraded Xbox, it would feature total backwards compatibility.

Last edited by Highlander on 7/13/2011 12:47:16 AM

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Highlander
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 @ 4:10:37 PM
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Perhaps it (the rumored system) is a new PS3 SKU with Move bundled?

Last edited by Highlander on 7/12/2011 4:10:56 PM

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Cesar_ser_4
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 @ 6:30:37 PM

wasn't that one already released?

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Gone
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 @ 7:25:08 PM

We talked about it in the forums. It is the slimmer PS3 slim. Another model after the CECH-3001A/B. "Sony will be announcing a new PlayStation 3 chassis design at Gamescom which runs from August 17th to the 20th, 2011."

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Highlander
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 @ 10:53:47 PM

It's lighter, but not slimmer - according to some articles.

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Jonesy555
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 @ 4:17:57 PM
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Quite frankly, I look at my PS3 and I still see a good 2-3 more years left in it before we should start <i>thinking</i> (not sure if this comment section is done through html) about a new console let alone releasing one. Hell, my X360 has about the same lifespan...needs an automatic 5-disc changer for those larger games that requires more that one disc (I'm looking at you Mass Effect 3), but gaming wise, it's still perfectly fine.

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telly
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 @ 4:24:15 PM
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Good for them. No need to rush when PS3 continues to impress, both with graphics and gameplay (to say nothing of sound, which everyone sort of takes for granted these days!)2013 is a-ok with me, let the early adopters adopt early, then the price can come down in the next year or two for the rest of us. That would bring us to the promised 10-year lifespan for PlayStation 3.

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Excelsior1
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 @ 4:25:11 PM
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one final thing. the article says sony keeps saying they are not thinking agout a ps4 yet. i disagree with that. sony might say that but i think they are not only thinking about a next gen system, but are in fact already working on it.

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Wissam
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 @ 4:36:21 PM

But of course they are working on the ps4. I think its still early to think about the ps4.

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Fane1024
Wednesday, July 13, 2011 @ 7:13:05 AM

...and have been since 2007.

By now, I'd bet they have a target configuration and specs, but no final design.

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TheCanadianGuy
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 @ 5:18:11 PM
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anyone else getting tired of hearing about this so much lately ?

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Wissam
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 @ 5:25:15 PM

Me.

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maxpontiac
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 @ 5:32:21 PM
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I'll be ready for the PS4 when the developers max out my PS3.

Outside of a few developers, most games have to fill a Blu Ray.

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godsman
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 @ 7:50:36 PM
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I don't think PS4 will come out until PS3 is $150.

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OxyFenix
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 @ 8:38:41 PM
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I don't want a release next year. I would like an unveiling next year. I want to see the ps4 at next year's E3. With a late 2013 or early 2014 release. That sounds plausible to me. That way at E3 2013 they could show off more games and console details. E3 2012 will just be like a teaser.

If developers start early with the system, we could see great games coming out when the system releases.

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Warrior Poet
Tuesday, July 12, 2011 @ 8:45:53 PM
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I'm pretty tired of all this PS4 nonsense when we're not even close. PlayStation is always awesome, and I'm definitely a PS lover, but the idea of a PS4 isn't very compelling to me right now. I still haven't played all the great PS1 games (or ps2, or ps3, or psp...) and I probably never will. The PS3 is definitely an awesome machine but the games we're playing are, mostly, improved PS2 games. It's not just that I'm a retro gamer who will always love 90s games, but I haven't seen much progression except some really impressive tech.

The improvements are definitely good: HD visuals, 7.1 surround, better AI, more players at once, etc. - but I haven't seen any new genres emerge like they have in every other generation - except maybe something like Heavy Rain, which I think was the most artful game to come out this gen.

The PS4 is going to have to be something REALLY compelling for me to consider it. Otherwise I have over 2 decades of awesome games in my backlog :D

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___________
Wednesday, July 13, 2011 @ 4:29:57 AM
Reply

thank you captain obvious!
in other breaking news, water is wet, the sky is blue, cows go moo!
we dont need consoles for at least another 2 years, and the industry cant afford them either.
sony have been bleeding money ever since the ps3 launched, and still are!
there not going to spend millions bringing a new console out till they recoup most of there loss with the ps3.
not ready for new hardware either, as i have said a billion times were in a hardware transition now, like bluray vs HD DVD but instead of 2, theres quite a few, and predicting whos going to win is impossible.
no one likes putting millions into a horse to see it flop at the starting line!
to be honest after playing my wii the past few weeks i really dont think we need new consoles either.
the things i want in games just would not be possible with new hardware, it would take another few years to see it on PCs let alone consoles.
i can honestly see M$ and sony sitting back, and watching ninty come early so by the time sony and M$ are ready ninty will be flabbergasted trying to get a new competitive system out.
they REALLY hurt themselves with the wii!
they put themselves behind, so they need a new system now, so what are they going to do when the ps4 and new xbox release?
release a new system, only a few years after releasing one?
they really threw themselves up sh*t creek without a paddle this time!

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Highlander
Wednesday, July 13, 2011 @ 11:49:34 AM

Oh, so *that* is your name, Captain Obvious.

Well, I'm glad we got that sorted out, now I know what to call you in posts.

;)

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Nas Is Like
Wednesday, July 13, 2011 @ 9:42:09 AM
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2013/2014 is still early for the PS4, in my opinion. 2018 sounds like a much better time.

That is, if we all make it past 2012. :p

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Highlander
Wednesday, July 13, 2011 @ 11:48:47 AM

LOL! 2018? That'd be 12 years. You'll have a watch with more computing power than a PS3 by then!

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Nas Is Like
Thursday, July 14, 2011 @ 11:03:54 AM

I realize how many years it is. But when you have a sophisticated machine like a PS3 that can do so much, why would you need a PS4 earlier than that?

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