Analyst: GTAV Costs $80 Million, Could Sell 24 Million

It hasn't even been officially announced, but it still manages to grab headlines.

Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has issued an investor note, in which he estimates that Grand Theft Auto V will sell "at least 18 million units." Furthermore, if it "maintains historical attach rates," it might even sell as many as 24 million copies!

And publisher Take-Two will need as many sales as possible, because Pachter estimates that GTAV has already cost $80 million in development costs. By the way, he thinks that same number will eventually go into Max Payne 3, which means that long-awaited title better hit big, too. The current estimate for a GTAV release date is "TBA 2012," with some analysts thinking it'll arrive as early as the first quarter. And we're hoping that's accurate.

Red Dead Redemption has sold 11 million copies to date, so the company in question is quite used to huge blockbusters. And if GTAV does what it's supposed to do...well, Call of Duty will finally have some competition.

Tags: gtav, grand theft auto v, rockstar, michael pachter

8/9/2011 8:50:17 PM John Shepard

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Comments (41 posts)

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LimitedVertigo
Tuesday, August 09, 2011 @ 9:25:04 PM
Reply

As much as IV disappointed me I still see myself getting this Day1.

$80million is hardly anything when you're selling 24million copies

7 up, 1 down

WorldEndsWithMe
Tuesday, August 09, 2011 @ 10:05:44 PM

It's a good thing this isn't Activision or Kotick would take all the profits for himself.

2 up, 0 down

Lawless SXE
Wednesday, August 10, 2011 @ 2:15:21 AM

Imagine how much R* and T2 would put back into GTA if the next one managed to crack a billion dollars? It'd be excellent!

1 up, 0 down

Chelsea United
Thursday, August 11, 2011 @ 2:55:31 AM

I see the comment so many times but I just don't understand.... how was GTA IV a disappointment? was it difficulty or something? I've started playing it again and it's one of the small amount of games I've played that actually holds my attention.... I mean it's not an intellectual man's game as such but it's still fun as hell.

1 up, 0 down

Killa Tequilla
Tuesday, August 09, 2011 @ 9:43:48 PM
Reply

I love me some GTA V news.

Now... where's Agent?

3 up, 0 down

Lawless SXE
Wednesday, August 10, 2011 @ 2:14:06 AM

Apparently T2 are going to be lifting the lid on some of their titles by the end of the year. Let's hope that R*'s offerings are among them so we can get properly excited.

0 up, 0 down

Socrates
Wednesday, August 10, 2011 @ 6:20:25 AM

Well can I get an Amen to that! ... let’s get us some Agent news up in here already!

0 up, 0 down

dork02840
Tuesday, August 09, 2011 @ 9:44:57 PM
Reply

ugh @ limiited vertigo. every time i play LA noire or any sandbox game, even infamous 2, i cringe. the whole chase chase jump special powers/ability talk to people mechanic is really wearing on me. the more i play these types of games, the more they collect dust after about 2 weeks. i put WAY more hours into mortal kombat. the gameplay may be shallow by comparison, but the nostalgia factor plus the retelling of a classic story from teen years was too delectable. LA noire is addictive, but i found myself hitting a wall. at 31 years old i find myself going back to what made me love gaming in the first place. and its not games like LA noire or red dead or infamous or anything like that. its sonic, golden axe, streets of rage, comix zone, mario, f-zero, mortal kombat, killer instinct, virtua fighter, virtua racing, virtua cop, cruisin USA, madden, nhl 92, sports talk football, the acclaim wwf games, wrestlefest from TAITO, operation wolf...after burner, michael jacksons moonwalker, FIFA....toejam and earL. i find myself shunning what i loved these last 5-10 years in favor of what i have loved all along. theres a reason i have not had the urge to finish a single game in the vein of gta...i find those games to be utter trash.

1 up, 8 down

WorldEndsWithMe
Tuesday, August 09, 2011 @ 10:07:26 PM

You sir tarnish inFamous by putting it in the same mention as GTA. They may be open world, but that's where the similarity ends.

7 up, 1 down

FM23
Tuesday, August 09, 2011 @ 11:04:56 PM

@dork: Wow...well have fun playing the oldies man. Seriously, you sound very closed minded.

@world: I know what you're saying, but come on...GTAIV was/is still overall better than Infamous 2, but Infamous 2 definitely rapes GTAIV on the gameplay front. Not sure how this guy dork could compare Infamous to GTA or RDR. Completely different experiences
.

3 up, 3 down

Clamedeus
Wednesday, August 10, 2011 @ 1:17:21 AM

I'm going to be the odd ball here but, I prefer Infamous over GTA.

5 up, 2 down

Underdog15
Wednesday, August 10, 2011 @ 9:09:16 AM

you think you're the oddball?

Well, I absolutely despise the entire GTA franchise! HA!

2 up, 4 down

Clamedeus
Wednesday, August 10, 2011 @ 5:39:00 PM

Haha Underdog. xD

0 up, 0 down

Fox hounder
Tuesday, August 09, 2011 @ 9:50:41 PM
Reply

$80 million to make huh ? it would be worth every penny, if they make it more like San Andreas and less like 4. GTA 4 was a good game, but imo San Andreas is the best of the series.

4 up, 0 down

WorldEndsWithMe
Tuesday, August 09, 2011 @ 10:07:58 PM

Pick up Saint's Row The Third and you won't have to worry.

5 up, 0 down

FM23
Tuesday, August 09, 2011 @ 11:06:20 PM

San Andreas was hardly the best game in the series. If your talking about gameplay then maybe you have a point, but GTAIV was a very unique mature experience. I hated San Andreas over the top story.

0 up, 0 down

Fox hounder
Wednesday, August 10, 2011 @ 1:24:10 AM

@World. Yeah, looks like Saints Row has become this gen's GTA (from an arcadey, over the top standpoint). The more i hear about Saints Row 3 the more interested i become, i still need to pick up Saints Row 2.

Last edited by Fox hounder on 8/10/2011 1:31:53 AM

0 up, 0 down

WorldEndsWithMe
Wednesday, August 10, 2011 @ 2:10:30 AM

SR2 is fantastic mayhem, you just have to get past the rough graphics. That's one thing I'm looking forward to a lot in 3. My favorite thing about SR is that its probably got the most customization in any game ever.

1 up, 0 down

Fox hounder
Wednesday, August 10, 2011 @ 2:22:08 AM

Sounds awesome. I watched some gameplay vids on youtube for SR 2, and i like what i see.

Last edited by Fox hounder on 8/10/2011 2:22:39 AM

0 up, 0 down

Ignitus
Wednesday, August 10, 2011 @ 2:41:05 AM

Yeah, do what World says. Go with Saints Row, you definetly won't regret it. ;)

1 up, 0 down

Oxvial
Tuesday, August 09, 2011 @ 9:52:33 PM
Reply

Hey..and Agent?.

0 up, 0 down

Jawknee
Tuesday, August 09, 2011 @ 9:59:57 PM

The last news I've heard was that its exclusivity was up in the air we wouldn't hear anymore about the actual game until next year.

1 up, 0 down

Oxvial
Tuesday, August 09, 2011 @ 10:35:14 PM

If isn't going to be exclusive I would lost my interest asap.

Lately is like making a exclusive game for the Ps3 is a frigging sin lol.

R* what happened with your excitement? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SO2ZyHmDpCE

I only have RDR from them and the Ps3 version was inferior.

Last edited by Oxvial on 8/9/2011 10:37:34 PM

0 up, 2 down

Jawknee
Wednesday, August 10, 2011 @ 1:23:10 AM

L.A. Noire is worth the buy. Especially since it's cheap now.

1 up, 0 down

Fox hounder
Wednesday, August 10, 2011 @ 2:16:49 AM

@Oxvial. I read on ps lifestyle that Agent may not come till 2013.

0 up, 0 down

Oxvial
Wednesday, August 10, 2011 @ 8:07:31 AM

@Jawk: I have an eye on La Noire but somehow I was never interested on it, and lately theres upcoming releases I'm more hyped, but yes someday I'm gonna buy it.

@Fox: 2013? so looks like they are going to put a SE on us and stop anything related to Agent until the multiplatform game (GTA) is released.

Last edited by Oxvial on 8/10/2011 8:13:01 AM

0 up, 0 down

WorldEndsWithMe
Tuesday, August 09, 2011 @ 10:11:23 PM
Reply

Unless they actually do something amazing or have something worth doing in that big open world city besides hunting pigeons they won't see much of my money if any. Go, drive, kill, go drive, kill, baaah!

The narrative needs to be stronger too, I just beat Yakuza 4 and I have to say it's got GTAIV beat hands down in the story department and it's no $80mil game.

Last edited by WorldEndsWithMe on 8/9/2011 10:13:21 PM

3 up, 1 down

Oxvial
Tuesday, August 09, 2011 @ 10:41:03 PM

Funny how almost all reviews like IGN tried to bury Y4 because it got.. awful plot and uncharismatic characters..lol

1 up, 0 down

Clamedeus
Tuesday, August 09, 2011 @ 10:58:33 PM

I can't stand IGN, I like listening to the Beyond Podcast once in awhile though, that's basically the only reason why I go to that site.

2 up, 0 down

FM23
Tuesday, August 09, 2011 @ 11:09:42 PM

@world GTAIV needs a stronger narrative?...that was one of the best stories told in gaming, but most people on this site prefer Japanese oriented games or RPG's so it make sense. But as far as making the openworld setting more interactive, that is definitely a must because outside of the main missions....GTAIV offered little valuable exploration. Sorry Rockstar, but Bethsheda is the new king of open world gaming.

3 up, 3 down

WorldEndsWithMe
Tuesday, August 09, 2011 @ 11:32:53 PM

I respectfully disagree, GTAIV's story was a lot stronger than previous GTA's but also pretty basic revenge stuff with few characters that actually mattered to the plot. I think the plot needs to be stronger if it's gonna go for being the realistic game it wants to be. It was a lot of fetch quests laid over Nico needing to find people he could have found by employing a private detective.

2 up, 1 down

FM23
Wednesday, August 10, 2011 @ 4:42:01 AM

Well isn't every RPG literally fetch and quest...that's a funny complaint. Your fetch and quest in alot of games nowaday..Dead Space is an example. But GTA follows a repetitive formula so I see what your saying.

As for the narrative, whats games really features the unique story arc featured in GTAIV. It was more than simple revenge story and alot of people would agree with that statement and of course people would disagree. Anyway, who cares...I just want GTAV to actually gives us control of our open world enviroment this time.

0 up, 0 down

Ultimadream
Wednesday, August 10, 2011 @ 6:26:07 AM

GTA's story has been fine, I agree Yakuza anhilates it in the narrative sense. But the problem I had with GTAIV is that everything got old fast, once I reached the second Island I realised there weren't going to be many more new features and I got a bit bored of it.

2 up, 0 down

Oxvial
Wednesday, August 10, 2011 @ 8:09:54 AM

Next GTA needs to do what Yakuza 4 did, have multiple characters with different characteristics and personality's in the main game that doesn't feel like dlc adds.

Last edited by Oxvial on 8/10/2011 8:11:43 AM

0 up, 0 down

Underdog15
Wednesday, August 10, 2011 @ 9:13:02 AM

One of the dumbest parts about GTA4 for me, was hitting the dude on the driving range... I mean... come on... from that far away.... it would take me like 2 buckets of balls to finally hit him.

0 up, 0 down

Mamills
Tuesday, August 09, 2011 @ 10:32:49 PM
Reply

its GTA, Nuff said. day 1 purchase

3 up, 0 down

Lawless SXE
Wednesday, August 10, 2011 @ 2:23:24 AM
Reply

That can't be right. They're spending less than they did on GTAIV? And I hope that GTA does sell gangbusters, but I fear that the franchise has lost a bit of its lustre due to the long(ish) absence. People will always remember the GTA moniker, but will it still have the same appeal as it always has when the market has shifted as drastically as it has away from the single player experience? Oh I hope it does, I hope it becomes the best selling game of all time, but more than that, I hope that it is fun. I hope the story is more emotional and the characters more relatable. I want to see the city live and buzz and be engrossing, not just have it as a backdrop. Give us more to do outside of the main storyline and more objectives all around. I'd be happy if they added back some of the insanity, even if it means dropping the realism. Realism isn't essential for a strong story to be told. Oh, R*, don't let me down.

3 up, 1 down

Dancemachine55
Wednesday, August 10, 2011 @ 2:44:48 AM
Reply

Guess what Pachter, I can pull numbers out of thin air and speculation too!!!

Watch this...

The next Red Dead game will be released around late 2013 / early 2014. I don't think it will be available on next-gen consoles because the market will most likely not have a high adoption rate as the PS3 and 360.

The next Red Dead will also sell approximately 12 million copies due to the popularity of Red Dead Redemption, however, it will not reach the projected 20 Million + sales of GTA V since GTA V is a high profile and much more recognised title, even amongst non-gamers.

...okay Analyst Organizations, where's my money and my job placement?

3 up, 0 down

Beamboom
Wednesday, August 10, 2011 @ 10:11:50 AM

Dude you're a prophet!

0 up, 0 down

___________
Wednesday, August 10, 2011 @ 7:21:13 AM
Reply

yet again getting paid for pulling sh*t out of his a$$!
god i wish i had his job!
whenever we do see GTAV, or whatever the next GTA game is called, i just hope it goes back to the way the series is suppose to be.
GTA has always been about being controversial, i mean come on every time a GTA released here R* did not send the game to get reviewed, they just sent a edited version because they knew it would get banned.
not any more, GTAIV was as dull as dishwater!
as entertaining as watching a whole series of doctor phill!
id rather be forced to watch nothing but soap operas for the rest of my life, then play GTAIV ever again.
thats how bleedingly boring it was!
brings a whole new extreme to the phrase watching grass grow.

Last edited by ___________ on 8/10/2011 7:23:11 AM

0 up, 1 down

corneliusw
Wednesday, August 10, 2011 @ 8:09:59 AM
Reply

i typed in http://GTAV.com and apparently its an official fan site for gta v or something. they have information up on the game.

i think GTA V will do more than 24 million units. its a huge series, and gamers are looking for something different instead of the tired call of duty year after year.

0 up, 0 down

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