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Pachter: If The PS4 Stays Cheaper, Xbox One Won't Catch Up

Can the PlayStation 4 maintain its early lead? Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter says simply, "hell yes."

In fact, during the latest Bonus Round episode, Pachter said that as long as the PS4 is the cheaper console, it's "impossible" for Microsoft to catch up:

"They've won as long as they have a $100 price advantage. Microsoft will not turn that around. It's not possible."

Price really is a huge factor this time around. Hardcore gamers will say that software is all that matters, but as most of the market these days consists of relatively casual gamers, price is absolutely atop the priority list for many. Once you add in games and accessories, that $100 is much more significant. Then again, that software is still critical and thankfully, Sony's first-party stuff is - in my opinion - head-and-shoulders above Microsoft's. So, if the PS4 is cheaper and has better exclusive software, well... That's game, set, match.

Not sure if Pachter was referring to the worldwide tally or just US sales with this "not possible" statement, though.

Tags: ps4, playstation 4, ps4 sales, xbox one sales, michael pachter

1/20/2014 12:05:45 PM Ben Dutka

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Comments (25 posts)

Temjin001
Monday, January 20, 2014 @ 12:33:17 PM
Reply

Having the highest price in a console war has always been among the factors of losing considerable marketshare relative to the prior generation in any console generation.
It's just how it's always been. I don't see that changing with XO. Sorry, MS just doesn't have a secret sauce or magical "stranglehold" on the market that makes them invulnerable to breaking age old common factors.

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Temjin001
Monday, January 20, 2014 @ 1:01:49 PM

I should re-word that as it could be proved false according to my precise wording. The Gamecube didn't have a higher price than the N64 and so it wasn't among the highest price factor in losing market share. My statement should read, having a highest price in any console generation has always meant for losing market share relative to any prior gen.

On a side note, concerning the Dreamcast. The Dreamcast was an improvement within it's window relative to the Saturn. Believe it or not within just over a year's time the platform moved over 10 million units. But SEGA at the time wasn't going to settle for anything less than #1.
The DC could have remained viable through out the generation if SEGA hadn't decided to abandon the console hardware market altogether and opted to shift all developement resources to Sony, Nintendo, and MS in establishing themselves as a AAA software developer. They wanted to catch the then current gen wave and root themselves quickly as a software company as planned. There's some good history a person can read up on concerning the internal issues sega was having amongst themselves over the direction of the company during that era.

Last edited by Temjin001 on 1/20/2014 1:05:17 PM

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godsman
Monday, January 20, 2014 @ 1:22:36 PM

I think PS3 would have been dead in the beginning, if their ancestor wasnt the PS2. I dont see xbox one pulling through near the end like PS3 did

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Temjin001
Monday, January 20, 2014 @ 1:31:31 PM

Metal Gear Solid 4 was the most important game ever made for the PS3 in my ESTIMATION =p but yah, for sure, Sony's history absolutely helped smooth things over for PS3.

Last edited by Temjin001 on 1/20/2014 1:31:47 PM

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squibbfire
Monday, January 20, 2014 @ 12:33:29 PM
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This guy just hit the nail on the head.

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squibbfire
Monday, January 20, 2014 @ 12:35:37 PM
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I wouldn't say that... PS3 won the last generation in terms of market sales and game sales. And they were the highest price console.

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WorldEndsWithMe
Monday, January 20, 2014 @ 12:45:33 PM

That's what I was thinking, but they have the exclusives to make that happen. MS won't have that.

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Teddie9
Monday, January 20, 2014 @ 1:09:35 PM

The only thing is this time around the consoles practically released together so that price comparison is going to be made more readily. To a super casual the ps3 might have seemed like new tech coming out (what was it?) a year later.

Though anything's possible if later in a couple of years when price drops are made and the only thing that'll matter are those system seller titles.

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Temjin001
Monday, January 20, 2014 @ 1:13:18 PM

the PS3 still hasn't caught up to what Sony accomplished with either of their prior platforms. Having the highest price meant less success than they otherwise would've had.

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Ben Dutka PSXE [Administrator]
Monday, January 20, 2014 @ 2:32:11 PM

The PS3 and 360 were the same price for a while, and it was mostly during that time that Sony made up the ground.

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H8WL3R
Monday, January 20, 2014 @ 2:33:07 PM

Yeah the higher price tag didn't help at launch for sure, but I also think the extra year or so probably was a significant factor for the PS3 in the beginning. I think there were the XBOX fans who bought a 360 at launch or within the year before PS3 released, as well as fans who were planning on having both or PS3 fans who couldn't wait and wanted the next gen asap. I'd think also that because the XBOX360 had been out longer, hence had more games than the just released PS3. Add the fact that as well the more complicated architecture claimed by many of the third party devs which resulted in several multiplatform for a while (but not all, Burnout Paradise for example) were buggier and of lesser quality in general (and perhaps the graphics were slightly lower res for some). Oh and there was also a much limited supply during a certain period during and after launch right? There were also some who bought 2 or more and sold some at an even higher premium price to turn a profit.

So I think it was a mixture of factors... but I concede certainly price was prohibitive for many which was a major factor of the much slower adoption rate. I know price was chiefly a factor for me at the beginning, no matter how much I coveted one. :)

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WorldEndsWithMe
Monday, January 20, 2014 @ 12:46:22 PM
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Microsoft's customer base just keeps shrinking. They just went from the world to the US, now that could be up for grabs.

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Temjin001
Monday, January 20, 2014 @ 1:14:43 PM

you can expect a cool million, at least, in global PS4 numbers added to it's total within a month after the Japanese launch. MS will be lucky to hit 100,000 from that same market. The gap will widen from here on out.

MS knows this though. The Kinect has got to go. It will.

Last edited by Temjin001 on 1/20/2014 1:15:36 PM

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WorldEndsWithMe
Monday, January 20, 2014 @ 1:57:19 PM

I think they are gonna go down with Kinect.

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Temjin001
Monday, January 20, 2014 @ 2:05:17 PM

well, they have been going down with Windows 8 and that hideous Metro interface, so who knows? MS is so in love with themselves and desperate to by recognized for innovation so maybe they just don't care about winning.

Last edited by Temjin001 on 1/20/2014 2:05:46 PM

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WorldEndsWithMe
Monday, January 20, 2014 @ 2:52:31 PM

Are they still making Zune?

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Temjin001
Monday, January 20, 2014 @ 3:03:25 PM

pretty sure they abandoned the Zune.

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JackC8
Monday, January 20, 2014 @ 2:05:38 PM
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"I think Wii U will sell out its production through March, which is 5.5 million hardware units." That's what Pachter said in November of 2012. It still hasn't sold that many in January of 2014.

What that guy says is of little interest to me.

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Snaaaake
Monday, January 20, 2014 @ 3:15:06 PM
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This is just nonsense.
PS brand has the word "Worldwide" all over it.
On the other hand, Xbox only has US.

And I'll assume that he is suffering from amnesia because apparently he forgot that the PS3 overtook the 360 while selling at a higher price.

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Temjin001
Monday, January 20, 2014 @ 3:24:45 PM

The 360 hasn't always had a $100 price advantage, as Pachter framed it. If the HDD equipped 360 model was $299 and the PS3 never dropped below $399 I somehow doubt the PS3 could've overtaken the 360 if there was always $100 price advantage for MS

Last edited by Temjin001 on 1/20/2014 3:25:19 PM

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Conn
Monday, January 20, 2014 @ 3:27:26 PM
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Wonder if Sony would try to keep a price difference if MS adjusted? I don't believe MS should adjust though ,too big of a hit in the wallet for them to justify, since the XBONE is still selling handsomely regardless of who's leading. PS4 will still likely take world wide, if the PS3 ended up doing it last gen, despite the 360 being a cheaper option most of the previous life cycle.

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Temjin001
Monday, January 20, 2014 @ 3:47:41 PM

what's awesome is that unless MS drops the kinect Sony will always easily be able to keep the price advantage. That dang kinect will always be a thorn for MS in competitive pricing. So unless MS is prepared to eat manufacturing costs on every kinect packed into a box the PS4 will always be less money.

Last edited by Temjin001 on 1/20/2014 3:48:00 PM

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PHOENIXZERO
Monday, January 20, 2014 @ 4:32:53 PM
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I know how it got there but it's still amazing that the PS4 isn't just a $100 less, it's also more a good deal more powerful.

MS had just about everything go wrong for them this time around and most of it was their fault. The fact that they've managed such great sales early on so far is a testament to brand loyalty.

That said, I doubt we've seen anything yet in terms of the install base gap between the PS4 and XBO. Once the supply constraints ease off I imagine the gap between the two will only get wider at that point.

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Kryten1029a
Monday, January 20, 2014 @ 10:51:55 PM
Reply

The PS4 may not always have a $100 price advantage but the larger can install base could make the difference long-term. How much of the success of the 360 was down to the fact that if people wanted to play with their friends then 360 was the way to go? If the PS4 can build a lead of 2-3 million units then Pachter's right; they'll be uncatchable.

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___________
Tuesday, January 21, 2014 @ 2:37:57 AM
Reply

HTF did this moron get his job!?
just because of the price difference does not mean it will always sell better.
if M$ started throwing in allot more value for money than that would quickly start changing things, now wouldnt it?

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