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IDC: Next-Gen Console Sales Won't Top Current Systems

There's a critical oversight in this prediction, in my opinion.

But first, the news- According to IDC research manager Lewis Ward, the next round of video game consoles won't manage to outstrip the current generation in terms of overall hardware sales.

"The next wave crest isn't as high as the previous one," Ward said, adding that consoles as a product category have "peaked." He estimates that a combined 250 million PlayStation 3, Xbox 360 and Wii units were sold between 2005 and 2012 and clearly, he doesn't see the PS4, Xbox 720 and Wii U topping that quarter-billion number. Well...duh. The problem with this analysis should be obvious, isn't it?

This past generation, the Wii started like gangbusters and sold like crazy. It currently sits at about 99 million units sold. The Wii U, which launched late last year, is at a paltry 3.5 million and the future is not looking bright for that machine, especially with the new consoles from Sony and Microsoft on the way. Ain't no way the Wii U hits a hundred million; hell, I'll be surprised if it hits 25 million at this rate.

So without that massive boon that was the Wii, of course the PS4 and Xbox 720 won't sell 100 - 120 million units between them. No, that probably won't happen. It doesn't necessarily mean the console business has "peaked;" it just means Nintendo had lightning in a bottle at the start of this generation and now...they kinda don't. The bottle's empty.

Tags: next generation consoles, next gen consoles, next gen sales, console sales

5/21/2013 10:18:32 AM Ben Dutka

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Comments (11 posts)

Temjin001
Tuesday, May 21, 2013 @ 10:45:23 AM
Reply

The Wii U is going real sluggish. It needs a price cut. I remember when the 3Ds looked like a complete flop and then it did a 180 after the price drop.
Anyway, yah, unless MS shows something today that ignites the imaginations of grandma and non-gamer types it seems pretty unlikely PS4 and XBox will eclipse the last gen.

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Temjin001
Tuesday, May 21, 2013 @ 1:39:00 PM

*yawn* and MS's conference so far is a total bore and the EA showcase trailer was disappointing. And FORZA does look like it may look better than GT6 =p

man, no rush for me to hit the next-gen ;)

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KidPresentable
Tuesday, May 21, 2013 @ 1:44:23 PM

Aaaaaaaaaagreed!

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Clamedeus
Tuesday, May 21, 2013 @ 2:29:49 PM

It wasn't even actual gameplay though of Forza.

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KidPresentable
Tuesday, May 21, 2013 @ 1:18:25 PM
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Nintendo's bottle may look low, but it's never empty. A few compelling pieces of software like the Wii and they will be right in the thick of it Definitely not Wii numbers, but not a failure by any means. Plus theses new super systems are going to cannibalize each other. Why own a PS4 and 720d for basically the same type of game, when you can get one of those and the U for a pretty complete gaming ecosystem.

Last edited by KidPresentable on 5/21/2013 1:22:15 PM

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WorldEndsWithMe
Tuesday, May 21, 2013 @ 2:42:55 PM
Reply

But the new Xbox has a projector that puts crap on your walls!

The PS4 and Xbox69 will eventually sell well, as those PC parts become cheaper the prices will plummet at the end of the gen.

Please take a moment to look at this image though:
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151663038007268&set=a.10150123943327268.295462.769242267&type=1&relevant_count=1&ref=nf

Last edited by WorldEndsWithMe on 5/21/2013 2:43:15 PM

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WorldEndsWithMe
Tuesday, May 21, 2013 @ 3:20:00 PM

er, here http://i701.photobucket.com/albums/ww19/TheWorldEndsWithMe/ku-xlarge_zpsb5ef684e.jpg

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frylock25
Tuesday, May 21, 2013 @ 5:33:02 PM

ha ha thats kind of funny. i looked at the first link and it linked me to your facebook. funny to see what you look like after all these years.

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WorldEndsWithMe
Tuesday, May 21, 2013 @ 7:51:43 PM

I wasn't sure if the facebook link would let people see it who weren't my friends. But anyone can look me up of course. I'm definitely gettin older that's for sure.

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___________
Wednesday, May 22, 2013 @ 5:00:27 AM
Reply

how pathetic to say wiius bottle is empty, come on they havent even released any of their games yet!
might as well say the vitas bottle is empty!
just wait till they actually release some games, then it will be foot in mouth, humble pie for breakfast lunch and tea.

they defiantly wont sell as well next gen simply because of the shift in market, theres allot more competition out there now then before.
plus there was allot of people who owned 2 systems, or all 3.
but so far, theres really not much of a reason to do that.
sure there will be a few exclusives here and there, but system functionality seems to be even more similar than before.
but then on the up hand you have the multimedia functions of the new systems, that will draw in a whole new crowd who buy them just to watch TV and movies.
that will help balance out the sales a bit, but its not going to make up for the other downfalls.
exactly why its so important for developers to try minimize costs next gen, because the days of games selling 10+ million copies are OVER!
hell even the days of selling half that will be a rarity.

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jugheadjones
Wednesday, May 22, 2013 @ 12:14:32 PM
Reply

I agree that the sales don't look like they will duplicate this gen. I doubt the WiiU will do what the Wii did, I can't see the XBOX, based on what I have seen so far, duplicating 360 numbers, but I think that Sony might do even better this time. Even if they do, they will have to almost do double for the entire generation to beat what they did this time around.

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