Pachter Predicts Shorter Console Cycle This Time Around
Last generation really did drag on far too long, and one analyst says we shouldn't expect a repeat performance.
Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter spoke about the possible length of this generation of consoles in a recent round of Pachter Factor (check it out here).
When asked by a SIFTD user about the next console cycle - perhaps brought on by consoles that can't really handle VR or run 1080p and 60fps on a consistent basis - Pachter replied:
"I would be surprised if we had a next-gen console in 2018; we might have one in 2019, so I think 6 years is likely. We will have one by 2020, so I think seven years is a lock. So, lasting as long, probably not, but lasting longer than five years, probably so."
He added that due to the quick reduction in price of 4K HDTVs, it's likely that by the time 2018 rolls around, most people will be looking to own a 4K set. At that point, they'll be looking for consoles that can actually present games in 4K. That transition is happening quickly, too, as Pachter cited Black Friday prices for great TVs; for instance, a Samsung 55" 1080p HDTV was $699 and the 4K version was only $100 more.
The Xbox 360 went 8 years before the Xbox One arrived, and PlayStation 3 went 7. As a frame of reference, PS4 and Xbox One have both only been out for a little over two years.
1/9/2016 11:49:56 AM Ben Dutka