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Pachter Predicts Shorter Console Cycle This Time Around

Last generation really did drag on far too long, and one analyst says we shouldn't expect a repeat performance.

Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter spoke about the possible length of this generation of consoles in a recent round of Pachter Factor (check it out here).

When asked by a SIFTD user about the next console cycle - perhaps brought on by consoles that can't really handle VR or run 1080p and 60fps on a consistent basis - Pachter replied:

"I would be surprised if we had a next-gen console in 2018; we might have one in 2019, so I think 6 years is likely. We will have one by 2020, so I think seven years is a lock. So, lasting as long, probably not, but lasting longer than five years, probably so."

He added that due to the quick reduction in price of 4K HDTVs, it's likely that by the time 2018 rolls around, most people will be looking to own a 4K set. At that point, they'll be looking for consoles that can actually present games in 4K. That transition is happening quickly, too, as Pachter cited Black Friday prices for great TVs; for instance, a Samsung 55" 1080p HDTV was $699 and the 4K version was only $100 more.

The Xbox 360 went 8 years before the Xbox One arrived, and PlayStation 3 went 7. As a frame of reference, PS4 and Xbox One have both only been out for a little over two years.

Tags: next gen consoles, video game console cycle, michael pachter

1/9/2016 11:49:56 AM Ben Dutka

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Legacy Comment System (15 posts)


Cesar_ser_4
Saturday, January 09, 2016 @ 2:26:24 PM
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The prices have to justify the faster refresh cycle.

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bigrailer19
Saturday, January 09, 2016 @ 6:21:53 PM
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So the 7 year cycle is predicted to continue. Interesting.

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Corvo
Saturday, January 09, 2016 @ 7:51:13 PM
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Captain obvious states the obvious.

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Breadlover
Sunday, January 10, 2016 @ 8:17:59 PM

"desperate moves" to keep himself relevant, I guess xD

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shadowscorpio
Saturday, January 09, 2016 @ 8:01:22 PM
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As it pertains to visuals and graphics, I think that instead of focusing on how we can wow people with how good they can look devs at this point should really be honing in on making 60fps the norm and standard allowing 30fps to eventually fade away.

Refresh rates need to improve across the board imho. In fact, these days I'm more impressed with 60fps games than games with high-end graphics running at 30fps but that's just me.

If 60fps starts out being the norm with 4k visuals right outta the gate, I can only imagine the immersion.

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shaytoon
Sunday, January 10, 2016 @ 12:45:18 AM
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im an analyst too. its gonna rain in 2018 and possibly throughout in between until 2020.

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daus26
Sunday, January 10, 2016 @ 5:33:59 AM
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Not just 4k, but also 4k at 60fps. 7 years is reasonable for us to reach that state. By then tho, 8k will probably start rolling in.

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BikerSaint
Sunday, January 10, 2016 @ 11:23:54 AM
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I think Samsung just announced a 102 or 104" 8K TV, & it's priced at $100,000 but their prototype isn't out for public consumption as of yet.

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BikerSaint
Sunday, January 10, 2016 @ 11:32:18 AM
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OK, let's break down what Patchie just said....

<<<<<
"I would be surprised if we had a next-gen console in 2018

we might have one in 2019,

so I think 6 years is likely.

We will have one by 2020,

so I think seven years is a lock.

So, lasting as long, probably not,

but lasting longer than five years,

probably so.">>>>>


This has got to be the worst case of Cabbage Patch "talking through ALL eight sides of his mouth" that I've ever heard of.

Hedging all of your bets there, huh Patch-nic???


Last edited by BikerSaint on 1/10/2016 11:32:40 AM

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xenris
Sunday, January 10, 2016 @ 12:47:27 PM
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How does this guy have a job. He is either way way WAY wrong in his predictions, or he predicts the "most obvious everyone knew it was going to happen kind of answer."

This guy shouldn't be making as much money as he is.

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Rogueagent01
Sunday, January 10, 2016 @ 7:57:29 PM

If sites(sorry Ben) would stop publishing the crap Pachter says he would finally be seen as an analysts equivalent of a snake oil salesman.

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Breadlover
Sunday, January 10, 2016 @ 8:20:20 PM

@Rogueagent01 c'mon man, the community needs some form of comical relief from time to time. :D

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Rogueagent01
Monday, January 11, 2016 @ 2:27:41 PM

Fair enough...Then the headline needs to reflect that. Something like "NostraPachter strikes again" then i'd be ok with it.

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xnonsuchx
Monday, January 11, 2016 @ 8:00:43 AM
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I guess since there was already a price drop, he has to find something else to predict every few months to seem relevant.

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Underdog15
Monday, January 11, 2016 @ 9:38:31 AM
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Just keep in mind that once upon a time for him, this cycle shouldn't have existed, let alone the next one.

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