Would It Be So Terrible If Sony's PS4 Was Late To The Party?
I think it's an interesting question, and a legitimate one.
We all know that it hurt Sony to launch the PlayStation 3 over a year after Microsoft had made the Xbox 360 available. But in truth, I think a lot of that was due to the fact that the PS3's launch was borderline ridiculous; a $600 machine with little in the way of convincing software, Blu-Ray unconfirmed as the high-definition winner, the PlayStation Network still in its infancy, etc.
Sometimes I wonder what might've happened had the PS3 debuted at the same time - over a year behind the 360 - with more going for it (cheaper price tag, for one). And if you look at the worldwide sales numbers, the PS3 and 360 are essentially tied in terms of overall hardware sales. That means Sony's machine sold as many units in 6 years as the 360 sold in over 7 years. This includes the catch-up process during the first year or two that featured nothing but a whole lot of PS3 hate headlines.
So with the PS3 really shining in its prime (as Sony has said; they believe the system is "hitting its stride" right now), would it be so terrible if the new Xbox dropped next year and the PS4 didn't show up until 2014? Look at the upcoming software for the PS3; yes, the shiny new 720 will do great things, I'm sure, but PS3 owners aren't exactly getting yesterday's chewed meat with the likes of The Last Of Us, Beyond: Two Souls, and Metal Gear Solid: Ground Zeroes (yes, I'm aware the latter is multiplatform). Thing is, the PS3 has something left while I think we've seen all the 360 can do.
Besides, Sony has also said the most profitable time of the previous generation came after the PS3 launched. The PS2 was cheap, there were a ton of games for it, and they were coming off nearly 6 years of domination. We can't really say the PS3 "dominated," but we can certainly say it'll be cheaper and it'll have a very large library of games, which is catnip for consumers. Plus, with gaming being more mainstream than ever, not every human alive is up on the cutting-edge tech. The PS3's attractive price tag in the face of the new 720 could be fantastic for Sony, wouldn't you think?
Lastly, let's not forget that Sony has had significant financial difficulties as of late. Launching a new piece of gaming hardware has never proven lucrative for Sony; in fact, it always takes a few years to even reach profitability. Considering all this, maybe it's actually preferable for the PS4 to come out later. I know I'd be fine with that.
Tags: ps4, playstation 4, next gen, next generation, next generation consoles, xbox 720
9/4/2012 9:05:06 PM Ben Dutka
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Comments (57 posts)
Highlander
Tuesday, September 04, 2012 @ 10:07:33 PM
Reply
THEVERDIN
Tuesday, September 04, 2012 @ 10:51:58 PM
daus26
Tuesday, September 04, 2012 @ 11:41:18 PM
Underdog15
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 8:34:56 AM
Simcoe
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 8:38:10 AM
daus26
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 11:10:10 AM
Typical? No device should only last 5 years, especially an expensive one. Also, I think it's actually 2-3 years when the whole "YLOD" think started spreading like wildfire. I thought it was unlikely, but BOOM, mine suffered it too after two years. I was playing FFXIII lol. I don't know why that's funny but haha.
Anyway, I opened mine up when it broke. Paste was cheap as heck. Anybody that lasts for 5 years has to be insanely lucky. I don't know if Sony sort of planned it or what (to make it only last through warranty), but I still feel bitter about it.
Highlander
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 12:26:45 PM
5 years of heavy use is actually a pretty good lifespan for consumer electronics with moving parts. Something completely solid state should last longer. However with optical components, fans, spinning discs and so forth, a 5 year life is not really that bad.
Even with the increased failure rate of PS3 60GB systems later in life they are still at a fraction of the failures experienced by the first *3* years of 360.
The point is and was that if the two systems have sold equivalent numbers of units, it's absolutely undeniably true that the number of dead PS3s is a fraction of the number of dead 360s, which does mean that the PS3 is leading in terms of the number of installed units. This has been borne out time after time by connectivity numbers and online subscriber numbers. Even today the number of XBL Gold accounts accounts for at most 50% of the 360s ever sold. What happened to the other 50%? We're all aware of the *heavy* online bias of the 360 and it's games. So where is the other 50%?
The reason I made this point is to say that if the PS4 was late to the party as it were, it wouldn't necessarily be a horrible thing. Clearly the PS3 was late to the party and was saddled with the highest price tag of all systems, yet it's essentially outsold the 360 and done so in a year less time than the 360. If the PS3 continues to sell well, and the super slim brings a commodity price to the unit, sales will likely continue strongly for some years to come. So, despite the rocky start, it would seem that the PS3 is long term a winner, and ultimately may outsell both the 360 and Wii.
If PS4 arrives a year later than the NextBox, but has a better price tag than the PS3 did, and still offers a highly competitive device, why should it not pull off the same trick?
AcHiLLiA
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 4:00:27 PM
Nynja
Friday, September 07, 2012 @ 1:09:22 PM
My first PS3 stopped reading Bluray discs just inside the 1 year warranty. Got that replaced through Sony with a refurbished 60GB model. Roughly 14 months later, my refurb got the YLoD (yellow light of death) while playing Killzone 2. The system was always thrashing really hard when playing that game. I swear KZ2 killed my PS3. I received another 60GB model from Sony to replace my 2nd dead PS3. I had a pretty good run for about 16-18 months after that. My girlfriend (should be my wife by now) starting having issues with her PS3 locking up directly after running a firmware update. Her's lasted a good 3 to 3.5 years before any problems began. We sent that back to and decided to trade in hers for the newer slim.
Then my PS3...The same problematic disc read issues started coming up again, only this time not just Bluray discs. It was all of them, CDs, DVDs, and BDs. After so many problems with the 60GB, I just went out and purchased the newer slim PS3 with th 320GB model.
So my household has gone through 4 broken PS3s. We still have 3, 2 new slims and 1 60GB that cannot read discs.
I am also a 360 owner which has only RRoD on me once. If you haven't figured it out by now, that I do game quite a bit. I should also mention that if I were to split my actual gaming time across both systems I'd say it would be 95% of the time on the PS3 and a mere 5% on the 360.
Side note; I find it funny that the PS3 yellow light nickname came from the more profound hardware issues suffered by 360.
I still believe the early PS3s had a higher failure rate than perceived but no where near the magnitude of the Xbox 360. I think it just took longer for those models to $#!+ the bed.
EDIT: To further get the point across about my lack of 360 play time. I moved back in February of this year. It's now September and I still haven't hooked it up...or taken it out of the box for that matter.
Last edited by Nynja on 9/7/2012 1:12:05 PM
Simcoe
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 8:39:36 AM
muleymuel
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 1:30:04 PM
ethird1
Tuesday, September 04, 2012 @ 10:26:36 PM
Reply
BikerSaint
Tuesday, September 04, 2012 @ 11:51:39 PM
Temjin001
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 12:48:17 AM
Nynja
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 8:41:07 AM
WorldEndsWithMe
Tuesday, September 04, 2012 @ 10:50:57 PM
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PSN has grown substantially, Blu Ray is king, and Sony has taken back the exclusives crown. Also the technology isn't brand new so there will be less of a monetary investment in the architecture.
I wouldn't mind at all as there are just so many more games to play. If they need a year to make the launch spectacular then they should take it.
Temjin001
Tuesday, September 04, 2012 @ 11:29:17 PM
Last edited by Temjin001 on 9/4/2012 11:31:17 PM
daus26
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 12:42:44 AM
telly
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 10:33:35 AM
Long story short, my prediction is PS4 is coming out next year.
Metal Head
Tuesday, September 04, 2012 @ 10:56:15 PM
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Vita is a perfect example how to launch a new system with games we want at a reasonable price.
The new Xbox is going to struggle in its first year since it needs 3rd partys to embrace it. Sony has the edge on software and hardware.
bigrailer19
Tuesday, September 04, 2012 @ 11:15:14 PM
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All in all though I'm ready for the PS4 more so because I want to see what it can and will do.
WorldEndsWithMe
Tuesday, September 04, 2012 @ 11:20:41 PM
Reply
bigrailer19
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 1:11:23 AM
Ironically I mentioned the Same games you did but obviously it looked like this at the time:
Metal Gear Solid 4
inFamous
Agent (it never released, WTF! I look like a fool now!) ;)
God of War 3
Uncharted
Gran Turismo 5
Killzone 2
The same list that I once drooled over when talking about the PS3 could indeed make the PS4 launch awesome!
Funny thing though, when I'd mention those games to 360 owners, I'd get responses like... "I've never heard of those games!" good times the beginning of this generation was!
Simcoe
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 8:43:39 AM
daus26
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 12:18:40 AM
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I mean Sony can be late, but I don't know about being one year late. Sony has the advantage now. It would be a waste to ruin that momentum and let the Xbox shine for a whole year.
I get the whole launching with great exclusive thing, but we don't need an abundance of it. Fans should know what the Playstation offers, so like Nintendo, they should know that the great games will eventually come. I think showing trailers for a lot of upcoming games is enough to excite people for the new console. It doesn't necessarily have to be at launch, but yes there has to be at least 1 or 2 good launch titles.
Last edited by daus26 on 9/5/2012 12:26:17 AM
Beamboom
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 2:57:56 AM
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But if Microsoft play their cards right there will be a good pool of nex gen games released immediately with the new Xbox. And if *that* happens, then I will die if I have to wait another year for the PS4. Die, i say.
I'll never get me a Xbox, it's just not something I want to own, but I will be insanely tempted of getting me a PC gaming rig instead.
No. Please Sony, *don't* be late to this party. We've waited long enough as it is. Puh-lease!
Last edited by Beamboom on 9/5/2012 3:00:34 AM
___________
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 5:19:18 AM
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the reason why ps3 is still getting shoddy ports these days is partly because it released so late!
the reason why ps3 lost so many exclusives is mainly due to it being so late!
it has less features simply because it released later!
almost every problem it has is because it released so late!
so of course releasing last would be such a issue!
Akuma07
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 5:56:24 PM
___________
Thursday, September 06, 2012 @ 7:52:11 AM
BC, XGC, simultaneous downloads, installing while downloading, keeping the console in standby mode to charge the controller, FAR neater OS, all the kinect crap, not to mention dashboard programs like halo waypoint.
Last edited by ___________ on 9/6/2012 7:53:00 AM
homura
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 6:20:17 AM
Reply
Last edited by homura on 9/5/2012 6:21:09 AM
daus26
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 11:18:04 AM
So yes, it would be nice if Sony takes their time, but in business sense, it may not be the best thing for them to do... again.
Akuma07
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 5:58:40 PM
Robochic
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 8:20:08 AM
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Nynja
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 8:37:23 AM
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We are well past the average life cycle of a games console, but I don't mind so much. With firmware updates bringing new features and fixes, it helped to sooth the need for something new and shinny.
In my opinion it all comes down to who can hit the sweet spot first. The right price point. The console that reaches impulse purchase price first generally wins in total console sales. I think it's safe to say in these times, though, most consoles sold does not designate a clear winner.
Releasing first is one way to hit that price point sooner than your competitors, but not necessarily faster. That part comes down to many more variables.
My prediction:
Simply look where the focus is for both MS and Sony. Look at their current allocation of resources. Where is all the marketing being spent? I hear about Sony being at every conference. Where is MS? My educated guess is busy with the Windows 8 beta/release.
Sony is ready to take charge and pave the way with a new open platform. You will see Sony inviting more and more modders/independent developers over to the Sony camp. I believe Playstation Certified Devices and the free Playstation Mobile SDK is a sign of what's to come. They have a vision and it looks bright.
Xbox is waiting on Windows 8. The more Windows 8 PCs and devices out there, the better the selling point for the new Xbox 8. Connectivity will be the star with the next MS console. Integration with smart phones and tablets and anything running Windows 8. What I want to know is how far will they go with connectivity? Will they introduce their own cross-buy system with PC, Console, and Mobile games? Why not, they are all based on the Windows 8 OS. That could be a huge blow to Sony. One other thing. MS rushed the 360 which cost them billions. They won't rush again and I think many early Xbox buyers are sort of okay with that.
I think Sony is aware of this potential threat, this is why you see them laying the asphalt now with the purchase of Gaikai, PlayStation Certified devices and the free SDK.
I love this time of each generation. Competition brings out the best in these guys.
Sony PS4 Orbis - November 2013
Microsoft Xbox 8 - November 2014
Highlander
Thursday, September 06, 2012 @ 10:13:18 AM
Nynja
Monday, September 10, 2012 @ 1:21:27 PM
Microsoft still refuses to shift the release date of September 2013, but they may have to. They are currently triple sourcing parts in hopes the problem will resolve itself.
NOTE: Most likely scenarios is a full year delay. Though, if supply problem is resolved in the next 6 weeks, it could just be a short delay - such as moving release to November 2013.
Last edited by Nynja on 9/10/2012 1:26:55 PM
duomaxwell007
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 9:15:47 AM
Reply
telly
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 10:37:08 AM
PHOENIXZERO
Thursday, September 06, 2012 @ 6:49:50 PM
The PS4 could come out a year later and surpass the next XBox if done right but I don't think it'll be that long, if the PS4 is the last one out it won't be any longer than six months. And this time there won't be a issue with price due to using a brand new format and an expensive CPU meant servers with an architecture that still gives developers headaches.
If say, if the PS4 does indeed come out last and six months later then Sony needs something to show for it while still hitting a maximum $400 price point. Devs are going to be much happier since the PS4 is basically 99.9% certain to be a lot more dev friendly than the PS3 ever was to work with. No more of the exotic architecture BS that Krazy Ken had a hard on for.
As for the Sony PR spin the PS3 is nearing the end of its life cycle and next year will pretty much be the "last hurrah" for it. IMO the PS4 will be out within six months at most of the next XBox.
WorldEndsWithMe
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 11:02:14 AM
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Sure it will have the latest multiplatform games, but they won't skip a whole year on Playstation hardware no matter what. So a CoD on Xbox3 will be on PS3 too and something like Watch Dogs will just wait for the PS4 to come out before releasing.
sohio
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 11:16:56 AM
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Besides, I've (and a ton other people) are so weary with this generation that we'll go out and buy whatever comes out first, just to have something new and exciting again.
Highlander
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 12:30:09 PM
sohio
Thursday, September 06, 2012 @ 6:51:37 AM
When's the last time you owned the same car for 6+ years?
Had the same tv/laptop/computer for that amount of time?
My God, the last time a new system came out, my sister was in the 8th grade, she's now in her second year of college...I really don't care if there are more games to play that I am "missing out on"; (Per the usual comments I see regarding a new system) There are games I never got to on my NES and Super Nintendo, also.
It's time to move on.
Highlander
Thursday, September 06, 2012 @ 10:14:59 AM
Akuma07
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 5:54:29 PM
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If the playing field was even, devs could no do either of those things, the learning curve would be even, and the number of consoles would be even. Devs would have no reason/excuse to not support both.
PharaohJR
Wednesday, September 05, 2012 @ 8:42:59 PM
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we still got a list of games being dropped for Ps3 that will keep us occupied.... a late Ps4 date none to worry bout Sony built solid in this field. i only ask 1 thing of next gen..... DONT HAVE NO RIDICOLOUS PRICE TAGS OR IM DONE.
Highlander
Thursday, September 06, 2012 @ 10:15:13 AM
Id00urmomma
Thursday, September 06, 2012 @ 2:54:40 PM
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Mr_Sterg
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Tuesday, September 04, 2012 @ 10:00:25 PM