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How Long Will The PlayStation 4 Last?

It's a more interesting question when you consider the potential future of video games.

Many analysts, even Sony themselves, have said dedicated game consoles will eventually become a thing of the past, and digital services will hold sway. Perhaps it's inevitable that the PlayStation brand will only be tied to a service, and the PS4 will be the very last actual game console Sony produces.

If that's the case, do you think this generation will last even longer than the current generation? The PS3 turns seven next month and the Xbox 360 turns eight. No console era has lasted that long, which is probably why we're sensing a lot of "generation fatigue" from both gamers and developers. Of course, the PS3 will likely stick around for a while, although I don't think it will be as successful as the PS2 was after the PS3 launched. So, when Sony expected 10 years from the last two generations, for the most part, they were right.

But will they get another 10 years from the PS4? Or will they get more? Perhaps a lot of it has to do with the power of the system; if designers can continue to tap into more of the machine, the PS4's longevity will be increased. And of course, the console is digital-ready; it's not like you can't keep downloading digital titles a long way down the road, right? That being the case, why can't the console last 15 years or even longer? Will it really have to be replaced? And if so, how soon?

Tags: ps4, playstation 4, ps4 lifespan, sony

10/17/2013 10:10:13 PM Ben Dutka

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Comments (20 posts)

godsman
Thursday, October 17, 2013 @ 10:27:09 PM
Reply

Remember those times when we have to buy a PC every 3-4 years just to be able to catch up to technology? This is a thing of the past, and i believe we are hitting that point for gaming consoles as well.

The PS4 is so powerful, i think it's impossible to see any upgrade in terms of visual. I believe we will hit at least 10 years until Sony figure what technology to add to the new console.

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Temjin001
Thursday, October 17, 2013 @ 10:33:32 PM
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I think the question is about the necessity for more power. If it'll really be necessary to reset the landscape.

It seems to me we're about to step into computer generated graphics that aren't held back by hardware in any tangible way. Pretty much, if it can be imagined it can be created.
This generational jump feels the smallest of them all largely because we're largely going higher def in visual details and volume of tangible memory for more open world games. This current gen, while it was considered HD, made massive strides in shaders and mapping advances over the PS2 era. This was seen and felt in most every game. Now with the next-gen it's higher volume. We have visuals that look about as real as a dev wants them to be. Even PS3 has stood at that door from time to time.

Last edited by Temjin001 on 10/17/2013 10:35:53 PM

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WorldEndsWithMe
Thursday, October 17, 2013 @ 10:41:19 PM

There's no need for new iphones either, but people expect new sh*t and they gets it.

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Temjin001
Thursday, October 17, 2013 @ 11:00:53 PM

there's a whole different market there. A different drive for them gadget folk. And in so many ways, more than I care to list, including the software production model for consoles vs mobile devices and backwards comparability marketing.

But largely, many people buy iPhones and Galaxy phones because they tell themselves they need a phone. The salesman talks them into a 2 year contract under the appeal of a 'free' phone that can do so many wonderful things. American idiocy is largely what describes these $500-$600 phone sales in the states.
But if gamers could be persuaded in thinking that a game is as much a necessity as telecommunications we'd have $700 consoles released semi-annually as well.

Last edited by Temjin001 on 10/17/2013 11:01:25 PM

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Temjin001
Thursday, October 17, 2013 @ 11:06:49 PM

and I shouldn't have said 'gamers could be persuaded' I meant people.

EDIT: I think the Vita also paints a good picture of what happens when a tech gadget marvel clashes with market trends. This is esepcailly so when the game platform model DOESN'T operate on a hardware profit. Apple makes it's bucks on mostly hardware alone. Sony on the otherhand needs their partners to succeed. Check the Vita.



Last edited by Temjin001 on 10/17/2013 11:10:05 PM

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WorldEndsWithMe
Thursday, October 17, 2013 @ 11:11:46 PM

Of course you're right but I wonder if it's really so different, most devs still put out very glitchy software on consoles and they checked out mentally 2 years ago. This 7 year generation has them exhausted and gamers just aren't buying until they get something fancy and new. So maybe we DO need new stuff even if it doesn't matter much.

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Temjin001
Thursday, October 17, 2013 @ 11:41:54 PM

I don't buy the whole fatigue thing. Sorry, this is a market that needs to be driven by ideas and content and not the riding of the techno-wave. Games like Bioshock, The Last of Us, and probably GTAV prove this. Everyone had better get used to it because getting a free pass to create a new game due to new hardware every 5 years is over.

And one last thing about the Phone and Console thing. I think the DVD and Blu Ray market has a lot more in common with the gaming market. I loathe the idea of a 4K disc standard. If 4K can be part of Blu-Ray, fine. If not, screw it. I don't want new for the sake of new. I don't think most movie watchers tell themselves, "man, I'm really tired of watching just 1080p HD movies, I'm so fatigued, I need something higher def." No, probably not at all. Instead, they're probably fatigued of idiot movies like Will Smith father and son movies and Transformers reruns.

Last edited by Temjin001 on 10/17/2013 11:43:19 PM

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Temjin001
Friday, October 18, 2013 @ 12:01:12 AM

so basically gamers are fatigued of annualization of, or the constant redundancy, of gaming genres. Thank you Assassin's Creed. Thank CoD, Halo, and BF and everybody in-between. Thank you NFS and every other huge budgeted game that gobbles up prime time marketing exposure and pays the salaries of thousands of game developers.
know why I'm not all hyped for KZ Shadowfall now?

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Temjin001
Friday, October 18, 2013 @ 12:05:19 AM

jeesh, tangent night for me =p

and this is where the rift happens too.
Critics will stop awarding reduncancy and easy cash-ins from corporate giants. The quality may appear high but the soul is as over done as possible. I sense the divide of what sells the very best and what rates the very best will be most known this next coming gen than ever before.

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WorldEndsWithMe
Thursday, October 17, 2013 @ 10:38:50 PM
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I think it will probably be the same length as this generation and there will be at least one more gen of consoles. There just aren't enough people to support an all-digital service based marketplace. Add to that bandwidth caps and sluggish internet and you can't really expect high level gaming experiences via streaming yet.

So PS4 will likely have the same lengthy cycle beyond the PS5 release, but not be in a prominent role for like 15 years unless somebody decides to jump the gun on the service angle and dump most of the hard and medium core gaming public in the process.

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PC_Max
Friday, October 18, 2013 @ 12:13:54 AM
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I suspect at least 5 years. We should start seeing more services being introduced and I would not be surprised to see independent ones as well offering games and other media.

The consoles are becoming essentially PC's and that leaves a door wide open for entrepreneurs as well as broadening developers prospects of greater profits.

Mind you, this will all depend on technology moving forward as well. If things are to be going digital and cloud... the hardware and software need to work efficiently for it to be worthwhile investing from a corporation standpoint as well as the consumer.

I do believe we will still have a somewhat "media" box or hardware component at home both separate and possibly built in the TV with what I hope with hardware that can be upgraded by the consumer and not just a permanent setup.

OR it could ALL just fall flat and we end up back with another gen of console.

Exciting isn't!

Keep playing!

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Draguss
Friday, October 18, 2013 @ 12:20:55 AM
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I'm trying not to even consider the possibility of no more physical consoles. Let's just wait an see.

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EndZero
Friday, October 18, 2013 @ 12:24:33 AM
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I doubt they are gonna wait as long. Look at how game sales are slumping.

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iwillbetheone
Friday, October 18, 2013 @ 12:34:05 AM
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Upon reading this article topic, my first reaction was "LOLwut?". I mean the PS4 doesn't even do true 1080p at 60fps in most games(something that has been around on PC, and at better details, textures, etc. too, for quite some time), and you anticipate it hogging around for 15 more YEARS? 4K monitors are going to be affordable in a couple of years, and if you look, say, 5 years from now, they'll be very affordable, and the mid-range GPUs at that time will have no problems pumping out 4K gameplay with better details(especially considering how even current GPUs can outperform the PS4 before it has even arrived. Current high-end GPUs can play all games at 4K). PS4 will just be too much outdated after 5 years, almost as outdated as PS3/360 are now 7 years after.

Last edited by iwillbetheone on 10/18/2013 12:35:52 AM

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Beamboom
Friday, October 18, 2013 @ 1:06:01 AM
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Well, if it is true that we are heading towards gaming as pure streaming services, and the PS4 can evidently handle 4k resolution in movie playback, well then all the upgrades will primarily happen server side and thus the client side should not really be needed to be upgraded at all.

Personally I think it is hard to believe we are that close to such a shift, but hey - I'm getting old.

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___________
Friday, October 18, 2013 @ 4:30:19 AM
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well, depends on what you mean by last.
last as in ok $ony has stopped manufacturing it and no one is making games for it anymore and servers for released games are shut down?
or last as in ok its had its replacement now?
obviously, like the ps3, when the ps4 gets replaced with whatever it is does not mean the ps4s cycle is over.
it may never be over $ony could easily turn gaikai into their game and service and use the ps4 as the system to deliver these services to.

but how long till we see games delivered how they are today, ie downloaded onto the HDD, or onto a disc, and run off the system not off the cloud, i dunno maybe 6 years?
obviously the poor performance of "next gen" consoles is not exactly helping, i wouldent be surprised if we start hitting the wall in say 4 or 5 unlike whats happened with previous systems where even after replacement there still being pushed.

but whens more reliant on where internet capabilities are in a few years, or should i say servers?
it amazes me how every time i go to watch a youtube video, or watch a video on IGN, ill be stuck for hours buffering the f*cking thing!
every time i go to download a demo or small PSN game it takes sometimes DAYS to finish!
but i can download a whole PC game, all 20+ GBs, in a matter of a hour!
how it takes me hours to buffer a 5 minute video review, but takes seconds to buffer a hour long episode of top gear off apple TV, is beyond me.

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PlatformGamerNZ
Friday, October 18, 2013 @ 6:33:04 AM
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well i think it'll last awhile not sure how long i'm not sure but i thought about it and sony said it has already started the ps5 and ps6 in their R&D labs and i thought they wudn't spend money on something they wudn't make and make money bk on so i think it won't be the last console and ps4 will last awhile.

happy gaming =)

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MRSUCCESS
Friday, October 18, 2013 @ 10:08:48 AM
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hopefully at least 12 years but damn... in 12 years I'm going to be old lol... oh well gaming until the grave it is.

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AcHiLLiA
Friday, October 18, 2013 @ 12:46:01 PM
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Hope at least 5 years.

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PlatformGamerNZ
Friday, October 18, 2013 @ 8:43:20 PM
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i some how thing that there will be a next console possibly soon than one might think i mean the infrastructure and the ISP's and all such things are no way near good enough so yeah i think we'll probably have another couple or maybe 3 playstations before the playstation box no longer needs or will be imporved.but hey thats just me the coporate world will take for ever to put fibre internet cables in and so our download speeds will continue to be hoe hum so i don't see playstation being this service any tie soon. and as for physical media i hope it never goes away for games or movies or TV shows cos i can't imagine a world with out it.

happy gaming =)

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