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Pachter: Expect PS4 To Arrive In October Or November 2013

If you're wondering when the new PlayStation console will be on store shelves, you're not alone. A lot of people out there are speculating.

And Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter has released his own prediction: October or November 2013.

Pachter said he believes Sony doesn't want to launch behind Microsoft again, which is why he's confident the PS4 will be available before 2013 is over. To further elaborate, he added the following statements:

"It isn't likely that they will launch earlier, as it doesn't make sense to get out too far in front of software, and I'm pretty confident that few developers have been working on PS4 games for more than a year or so. Holiday 2013 will be a comfortable window for Sony, and will give them a chance to get a head start on Microsoft."

However, that doesn't mean the PS3 will go anywhere any time soon. Pachter says Sony's current console "has a solid three years left for sales," which means it'll settle nicely into the company's expected 10-year lifespan. Obviously, price cuts will also make the PS3 more attractive in the years to come. This is a pretty safe bet, as the PS2 sold quite well for a couple of years after the PS3 launched, thanks partly to a large library of games and partly to a declining price tag.

So do you think the PS4 will be ready by the end of next year?

Tags: ps4, playstation 4, orbis, ps4 launch date, ps4 release date

11/26/2012 9:40:29 PM Ben Dutka

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Comments (40 posts)

PoopsMcGee
Monday, November 26, 2012 @ 11:24:41 PM
Reply

I don't have a clue regarding the release date, but I'm thinking this might be the first console I buy at launch...

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firesoul453
Monday, November 26, 2012 @ 11:25:31 PM
Reply

He sounds like an economist.

"An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today." -- Laurence Peter

lol
thats what it made me think of anyway

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PoopsMcGee
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 12:06:16 AM

Great quote! LOL

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Temjin001
Monday, November 26, 2012 @ 11:29:52 PM
Reply

eh, I'd still like to believe it's MS for 2013. I think too many are placing too much belief in the presumed success of blitzing the market. Looking at the last several generations we see that the first one out of the gate doesn't always mean the best success.

Last gen the Dreamcast launched 9/9/99, a year before PS2. The DC had an awesome price. It had a lineup of software that was stellar for it's first year, even into it's second. There was a lot going for it. It still crashed and burned even though many believed it had the better lineup of software for at least a year into the PS2's launch.

THe 32-bit era had Panasonic, Atari, and Sega entering the market before Sony had. Granted, Panasonic and Atari didn't have particularly strong game support, but Sega was coming right off of it's Genesis success and it had the momentum to succeed best. It didn't.

Going back further to the 16-bit era. Once again, NEC launched before the Sega Genesis, moreso in Japan (PC Engine) than in the states, but regardless, the Genesis had more success, even though the NEC did have a comparable lineup of software.

I think people underestimate the impact of Xbox LIVE. MS really hit a grand slam with that service. They got well ahead of the competition by launching a console that was designed with online game play in mind. Sony was much more lackadaisical about competing with this social gaming wave. As far as I'm concerned the true reason for MS's success was gaining the advantage on a NEW paradigm of gaming. Beating Sony with hardware wasn't going to cut it. Xbox LIVE and Halo 2's excitement carried right into the 360. The online multiplayer craze was sky rocketing by this point.

The PS3 shored up expensive, pre-mature media, and a underdeveloped online component.

Basically, my point is that 360's success as far as I'm concerned has a whole lot more to do with what it was doing with Xbox LIVE and fostering western development studios and not exactly because it hit retail a year earlier.




Last edited by Temjin001 on 11/26/2012 11:31:44 PM

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WorldEndsWithMe
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 12:14:36 AM

Nice extemporaneous breakdown there Temjin. As an addendum I would say Xbox also had the benefit of launching at the cusp of the emergence of the new gaming boom among young people. That's easily seen in the ages of those with a console preference and the effect of gaming going mainstream.

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Highlander
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 1:15:56 AM

You forgot to mention the industrial sabotage aimed at Sony's Japanese software partners in the form of MS exclusivity contracts...

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Beamboom
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 3:26:10 AM

I agree that exclusivity sucks Highlander, but that's hardly a major factor when it comes to selling systems. I mean, who decides on a console because of some random maps and other DLC... And if so, the exclusivity on the Sony platform should weight more.

I don't think exclusivity plays an important factor (anymore), not when most big hitters are released for all platforms.

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Highlander
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 4:25:36 AM

You are very wrong Beamboom. Microsoft struck at the core franchises from Japanese developers and publishers that were part of the PlayStation environment. That definitely slowed the PlayStation 3 in Japan, and elsewhere. You can deny that all you wish, but it's the truth.

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Beamboom
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 4:27:54 AM

Aha! I didn't know about that. I thought you were referring to those timed exclusives, and found that to be dramatically overrating the importance of those. :D

But now your post made more sense.


Last edited by Beamboom on 11/27/2012 4:30:47 AM

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Highlander
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 4:43:59 AM

No, Microsoft signed Namco, Square Enix, CapCom, Konami, Tecmo and perhaps others to make games exclusively for the 360. They were not timed exclusives where the game comes out 6 months in advance. As an example, Tales of Vesparia was released exclusively on 360. Something like two yeras later the PS3 version was made - once Namco was no longer encumbered by their exclusivity agreement. However Vesparia never even made it on PS3 outside Japan because of the delay. There are plenty of other examples. It's not so much just specific franchises as it is certain genre that were really heavily featured on PlayStation hardware that suddenly were being signed up as exclusive to 360. Yes, there was a year delay between the launch fo 360 and the launch of PS3, but the impact of the exclusivity contracts was felt up to 2 years into the life of the PS3, in fact, even now you can see that impact in certain genre.

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Beamboom
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 7:19:38 AM

Haha - well that's the Microsoft we know alright :) They are... Businessmen at all cost.

But this is quite interesting in regards to the upcoming generation, cause I don't see how they can pull that trick again. So unless they got an equally cunning *different* plan it should put Sony in a better position this time, since most all exclusives that are left now are *owned* by Sony anyways.

Last edited by Beamboom on 11/27/2012 7:20:19 AM

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Highlander
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 11:11:56 AM

I agree that they won't catch Sony napping this time. Also, there is the distinct danger for Microsoft that rather like when AMD woke up Intel, Intel essentially crushed AMD with their Tick/Tock approach and Core architecture; Microsoft may have woken Sony from their slumber and may in future face a far more active and dangerous Sony Corp.

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Underdog15
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 12:43:42 PM

MS really took a run at this gen at the start with those exclusivity contracts, for sure. Part of the problem really is Sony was sort of asleep. I mean, the generation before was a no-contest. People owned an Xbox as an extra to the PS2 (like me, for example). PS2 outsold it by 5 times.

I think Sony sort of assumed they would have the same success, whereas MS likely spent a lot of time and resources on figuring out how to take the market. If Sony hadn't had such great quality, I believe they would have been severely beaten. I still think Sony will sell more overall, and they definitely will have more black ink than Microsoft, but you guys are both right... Sony won't be taking anything for granted again... But Microsoft is savvy. We'll see what they have planned.

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Beamboom
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 1:08:14 PM

Highlander, what a wonderful thought. I like the optimistic ring to it, and it's not entirely unlikely either - quite the contrary. They *need* to succeed now, and has become one generation wiser.


Last edited by Beamboom on 11/27/2012 1:10:12 PM

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daus26
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 8:51:10 PM

The Xbox should definitely be credited with its revolutionary online experience, but you're forgetting a lot of key components missing from the Xbox launch. For one, online isn't free. Also, you'd have to buy a $99 dollar extension to have Wi-Fi, AND a $199 extension for their HDDvDs drive. They also had consoles breaking in way early. With marketing and business experience from Microsoft, they can easily manipulate people on which system is the better value. Marketing is HUGE, and they're also good at underground tactics like what Highlander mentioned. They had one whole year of this.

And you know what, even with the one year advantage, Sony is nearly matching overall sales of the Xbox 360. Now imagine if the 360 didn't have that one year advantage. You're saying it like the 360 was a clear winner this gen. The PS3 has its share of success and it still has momentum.

That said, I HOPE it IS Sony in 2013 and Xbox in 2014. Sure, releasing early doesn't guarantee success, but with Microsoft's tactics and business sense, Sony will need the advantage.

Last edited by daus26 on 11/27/2012 8:59:44 PM

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WorldEndsWithMe
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 12:12:14 AM
Reply

Ben I hope you report on this again when it doesn't come true, Pachter gets plenty of flak but that's because he doesn't seem to be putting much thought into his analysis.

PS4 won't be super late to the party like last time, but I don't see it launching that early when we have high profile PS3 games that will be releasing at that same time. Without B/C you'd have a self-cancelling hype machine working.

We may see the 720 or the rumored Casual Xbox though.

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Axe99
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 2:10:45 AM

lol - aye. I thought there was an outside chance of it hitting next year, until I read this ;). I shouldn't be too hard on pachter though - there's a few studios that will be 'due' late next year for a new game if they're running on a 2-year cycle (Naughty Dog, Sucker Punch, Guerilla Games) that we haven't heard anything from, and I'd bet good money have been beavering away at next gen - if it launches in late 2013, GG and Sucker Punch will have had about two and a half years since KZ3 to cook something up, which is a pretty good length of time for a launch game of a new gen.

I'm sure I've forgotten a few studios as well, although with the closure of Zipper, Psygnosis, and BigBig, there aren't as many as there used to be.

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Highlander
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 1:14:05 AM
Reply

Question:

What if the next PlayStation is not a physical machine? What if the Next PlayStation is an entirely virtual machine running on any platform that can handle the virtual specs?

No, I am serious. What if the Next PlayStation is based on a virtualized CPU and GPU architecture? Sony has made great strides in emulation with the PS3 emulating the PS1 and to some extent PS2 games as well. PS Minis can run on either PS3 or PSP/Vita. Vita happily runs PSP and PS1 games as well as PS Mobile games. There have been reported job openings for emulation programmers at Sony in the past, most thought that they were targeting an enhanced PS2 emulation. What if the whole PS4 project is actually not about the hardware any longer?

I'm not suggesting that they would make a virtual console and allow other hardware makers to run it - necessarily. However if you create a virtual architecture for your next generation console, you can create it in such a way that games themselves scale to the platform. It would be possible to iterate the physical hardware dozens of times and allow the virtual console to scale with the hardware, and yet run the same games. For example, 6 years into the life of such a console the current hardware might be twice as powerful with more memory allowing superHD presentation. However the game could still run on the original iteration of the console and virtual machine, but scaled back to standard HD resolutions.

I don't know if they would do that, but if Sony did, it would make things a lot easier for developers since they would not have to learn a new platform every generation, in fact there would never be another generation.

The trick would be providing sufficient computational power now to create a virtual machine powerful enough to be a real step up from the PS3. If you could do that, you'd be able to get away from the hideous expense of custom hardware and the 6 year R&D cycle that comes with hardware based consoles.

Wonder whether their Gaikai might dovetail into such a scenario as well?

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telly
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 10:57:20 AM

Wow. Mind-boggling thought.

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Highlander
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 11:15:56 AM

Indeed Telly, and the interesting thing about Sony doing things this way is that they would not care at all what real CPU/GPU architecture they used as long as it supported the specification of virtual environment they want to use.

So you could have an A10 and ATI GPU or an 8 core ARM based CPU with a PowerVR G6630 or some other exotic future CPU/GPU combination. It would no longer matter and Sony would be able to pick and choose the cheapest parts that meet the performance requirement for the virtual environment.

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THEVERDIN
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 2:04:02 AM
Reply

Two years isn't near long enough to develope a decent game. So we can expect less than stellar titles for this launch? I keep hearing about XBOX 8 don't know if thats new or something to do with current model. Also I think this guys full of sh#$.

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Axe99
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 2:14:25 AM

I'm not sure about that - Uncharted, all the CoDs, the Killzones, and a bunch of other highly rated (and imo very good) games had two-year cycles. It's not long enough for expansive open-world RPGs, but they're not standard launch games.

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BikerSaint
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 2:28:34 AM
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Well, I'm not so sure that M$ will even be able get their next console out in what ever their original time-frame was.

In some recent articles I've read 2to3 weeks ago, about M$'s new, but now under-achieving chip-sets, are that M$ has now had to take those chip-set to 3 different chip manufacturers/research company's to see if they can be bumped up somehow to M$'s expected performance specs. And if they can't, then if there's any other viable work-around alternatives for all those chip-sets that have already made.

The articles also stated that M$ has given them all only a 2-month window in which to get these chip-sets up to their purposed specs, or that M$'s launch day window will have to be changed over to a later date.

Last edited by BikerSaint on 11/27/2012 2:30:52 AM

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Huey
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 7:19:03 AM

Biker, I saw over on another game site that Sony's credit rating had been downgraded to "Junk". I am not sure of this as I have not done any follow up. If that's the case, it dosen't seem to bode well for a new console looming on the horizon

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Beamboom
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 7:22:58 AM

Sonys credit rating is downgraded, that is true. Things are not as they used to be in the Sony camp, unfortunately.

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Highlander
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 11:21:23 AM

Sony Corp's bond rating has been downgraded along with a lot of other Japanese blue chips companies. The combination of losses stemming from the HDTV business, the impact of the 2011 earthquake/Tsunami and the extended economic downturn in the world is not being helpful to Consumer electronics makers in Japan. Sony also took a massiv accounting loss due to tax credit adjustments last year.

However when you start breaking Sony down and looking at the various parts of it, if Sony were to cease participation in the TV market alone it would be a far healthier organization. The gaming division is profitable, and if Sony has gone a different route with PS4 compared to previous generations, they will not be saddled with crippling R&D costs and production losses on the PS4 at launch.

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PoopsMcGee
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 12:05:19 PM

Not to mention even in the downgrade report it stated that Sony has already taken the necessary steps to reverse the downgrade. It's kinda a delayed reaction type of thing...

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BikerSaint
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 12:11:59 PM

Huey,
Yeah, I saw that too, but like Highlander said a lot of different thing's wound up factoring into it, but none due to Sony's Playstation branded sector.

Also, I've also heard that the Japanese's own Yen factored into that downgrade somehow too.

Last edited by BikerSaint on 11/27/2012 12:12:51 PM

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Underdog15
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 4:31:51 PM

Credit rating will rise and fall with the times when it comes to corporations. All that means is that Sony is a huge risk to lend money to based on recent numbers. All that matters to keep a company alive is that they break as close to even as possible so everyone gets their salaries. Even if there's no overall profit.

As long as you can coast along the razor thin line, you can survive a large number of years easily. The credit rating just means that they are not likely to score decent investments which means until it rises again, they will only be able to use their own current resources, which they still have plenty of to be healthy.

But you are right. It isn't like it used to be where no one cared about minor errors with huge profit margins. But now they need to scrutinize each move so everything stays manageable.

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Beamboom
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 7:21:50 AM
Reply

I hope hope HOPE he is right.
Man it would be wonderful if Sony is first out this time around, with a machine that is at least equal or better than the Xbox counterpart, a snacksy design and some serious heavyweight launch titles.


Last edited by Beamboom on 11/27/2012 7:22:13 AM

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Huey
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 7:27:14 AM

I hope so too Beam, but I still have this nagging little feeling...

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Beamboom
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 7:50:04 AM

... That, what? They will be late? No PS4 next year?
Or that the Xbox will be a better machine? Or poor launch lineup? Or whaaat? :D

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slugga_status
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 9:03:36 AM
Reply

A Holiday 2013 launch wouldn't be out of the question..Yet Sony hasn't really said anything about the PS4 so I'm still banking on a 2014 launch.

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Highlander
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 11:23:54 AM

Maybe for once, Sony is managing to keep this thing under wraps?

I will say this though, dev kits have gone out to devs in NA. Dev briefings have already started for Ps4, and Sony has all but confirmed in-house dev teams are working on next generation games already. Because of the rapidity of the hardware cycles, I don't see Sony being able to do any of that more than a year before actual release of the new platform. That alone suggests Oct/Nov 2013 release of PS4.

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slugga_status
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 12:08:34 PM

That very well could be that they actually have kept it under wraps. I agree that they could be ready for a 2013 release. If I remember correctly I think Naughty Dog, Guerilla, and Santa Monica were working on next gen titles as early as late 2010 early 2011. It would definitely be a welcome change as usually we know about the new (Sony) console a full year prior to release. One thing for certain is that E3 should be massive next year

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Huey
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 9:14:04 AM
Reply

Probably all of those things Beam. Kinda like a kid with a present. You are dying to take a peek, but what if it isn't what you were expecting or wanting. That sorta feeling.

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Beamboom
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 10:06:00 AM

Oh yuck. That feeling.

I am optimistic, but my expectations are not unrealistically high. All I really want is a machine without problems and at least as good performance as the competitors. That's all I ask, that's essentially why I am a console owner in the first place. I don't want another PS3 Skyrim experience, to put it that way.
And from that perspective there should be plenty of room for Sony to impress me.

So as long as the PS4 is as good as the competition I am all set for another good period as a happy PS owner. I just don't want there to be any better console alternatives. That's where I draw the line between happy and unhappy.


Last edited by Beamboom on 11/27/2012 2:25:47 PM

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Highlightreel
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 4:55:19 PM
Reply

Ok, just my 2 cents...the cost of the ps4 cannot be like the ps3 at launch. I STILL hear from my wife how she can't believe that we(I) spent $600 for a video game machine. THEN I got the ylod about 2 years ago and bought another one on that black friday. She loved that...and was like, "$600 and it broke? And you're going to get another one???" She doesn't get "us" but as much as I hate it, she is part decision maker.

The economy sucks now compared to 2006/2007 too. For me? There's NO WAY in h e double hockey sticks I would be given the green light in 12 months to spend another $600 or even close to that.

It's a simple concept but cost of the machine at launch will be more important this time. And other moms who are buying their teen or younger kids a machine are going to look at cost even more now and probably pick the cheaper option.

Stay Classy PSX...

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daus26
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 @ 8:39:36 PM

I feel you on that 60GB YLOD PS3. Happened to me as well. The real problem to me is more so the reliability than price. $600 dollars would've been worth every penny and more if it didn't break.

Think about it, at 2006, you were owning a blu-ray player that had wi-fi, 3D capability, browser, 7.1 support, blutooth, media player, and let alone games. It's not too long ago, that standalone blu-ray players have "only" started to caught up with these features, while the PS3 only had to go through updates.

Imo, the $600 price tag was not the major mistake.. rather, them being late one year after M$ hurt more. The price was just necessary for the new blu-ray tech and cell technology. Without those, the PS3 wouldn't be as good as it is now, let alone help blu-ray win the new disc format over HDDVDs. If Sony goes cheap, we may be sacrificing such innovation.

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JROD0823
Wednesday, November 28, 2012 @ 2:43:23 AM
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Can. Not. Wait. Need new next-gen goodness in my life. My new LG LED tv is begging for a PS4.

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