Pachter: All Digital Distribution Is A Long Ways Off Yet
As technology gets better and download speeds get faster, digital distribution has been growing with every passing year. And at some point, it is believed that it will eventually replace physical media.
However, as analyst Michael Pachter says, that's a long ways off yet. In speaking on the latest edition of the GameTrailers show Pach Attack, he believes the idea of retail video games going "download-only" in the near future is off the mark. Basically, he says there's just "no chance in hell" that this will happen any time soon and as long as so many game systems remain unconnected to the Internet, physical media will continue to the be norm. Said Pachter:
With PCs you probably have around 95 percent of them connected to the internet. But with the Xbox 360 it’s probably two thirds, the PS3 it might be as high as 85 percent and the Wii, my guess, is below 50 but probably closer to 35%. So it’s all the guys who are not connected, the 35 percent of Xbox 360 owners and the 65 percent of Wii owners, that are going to keep games from being made mandated downloadable. If you mandate that you are going to eliminate all the customers that aren’t connected to the internet."
In the end, Pachter says that 90% of households would need to have connectivity before the transition is financially feasible, and that won't happen until "at least 2020." Now, regardless of whether or not I agree, I will say I'm happy to hear the prediction...I like my physical game collection, damnit.
5/23/2010 9:02:22 PM John Shepard