PSP News: Analyst: NGP Will Likely Have More Success Than PSP - PSP News

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Analyst: NGP Will Likely Have More Success Than PSP

In addition to being impressed with Uncharted 3 in 3D, EEDAR's Jesse Divnich also had plenty to say concerning Sony's Next Generation Portable (NGP).

One of his "Key Takeaways" from the event was the following: their recent hands-on session confirmed the original analysis that the NGP will do better in the market than its predecessor. Third-party support will be crucial to the platform's success and although Sony has only announced one such title (Call of Duty), Divnich expects "all major third-party publishers to announce support at E3 2011." Here's a full quote concerning the NGP's future:

"Even after our second hands-on experience, EEDAR is re-iterating its expectations on the NGP hardware. EEDAR continues to expect the NGP to handsomely surpass the install of its PSP predecessor in all three major regions (Japan, North America, and Europe).

While we do anticipate that all major publishers will support the NGP, we expect full scale third-party adoption to be more methodical when compared to the rapid third-party adoption received by the PSP. Unfortunately, due to piracy and declining sales, the PSP never lived up to the third-parties expectations and for that reason third-party publishers will likely be more cautious with the NGP."

We still need to know the price, but analysts have previously estimated a consumer cost of $250 - $300, which isn't entirely unreasonable, but for most, it's still a hefty investment. Provided the games are there, though, this little unit could be pretty huge.

Tags: eedar, ngp, next generation portable, psp2

4/14/2011 10:32:56 AM Ben Dutka

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Comments (29 posts)

Kiryu
Thursday, April 14, 2011 @ 11:19:01 AM
Reply

Come out fast NGP and show the current world how portable devices r to be made!

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FatherSun
Thursday, April 14, 2011 @ 11:31:05 AM

You tell em K!

Hmmm... What will you do when they announce Yakuza for NGP? Its a given!

Agree with this comment 4 up, 0 down Disagree with this comment

Kiryu
Thursday, April 14, 2011 @ 1:30:16 PM

they demoed Yakuza of the end in the ngp presentation.Nagoshi said he wants to do some game with networking.

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leatherface
Thursday, April 14, 2011 @ 7:29:54 PM

I'll drink a sapporo to that , Kiryu.

Agree with this comment 3 up, 0 down Disagree with this comment

FatherSun
Thursday, April 14, 2011 @ 11:20:08 AM
Reply

$250 price point would put the 3DS to sleep. I am sure it will pick up in sales but I am simply not impressed by the 3D feature. It is a novelty. NGP on the other is speaking my language.

I wonder how the Sony PlayStation tablet will fit into this equation.

Agree with this comment 4 up, 0 down Disagree with this comment

kraygen
Thursday, April 14, 2011 @ 11:51:49 AM
Reply

I can't wait to see what all comes out for ngp, anything is possible and I'm excited about the news that everyone is expecting it to have full support.

How about some infamous on the go please.

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Killa Tequilla
Thursday, April 14, 2011 @ 11:52:57 AM
Reply

I dont even want the NGP for games, music or even videos, heck I just want to show off my latest and best gadget I have.

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OPHIDIAN
Thursday, April 14, 2011 @ 7:18:23 PM

Buy an Ipad 2 for the time being.

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marcusfrommo
Thursday, April 14, 2011 @ 12:01:43 PM
Reply

I want the psp2 to cost somewhere in the lines of 400 dollars with all the bell and whistles. By that, i mean i heard that sony took some things out of the ngp (and i'm guessing it's a lot) just so it can price compete with the 3ds.

I want the psp2 to kill the 3ds in graphics detail, more apps, you name it. But alas, i think the quality of the games will look pretty much the same on both systems. Unlike the xbox\ps3 vs. the wii.

Oh, well.

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kraygen
Thursday, April 14, 2011 @ 3:12:48 PM

1. Where did you hear this, link it.

2. You think that the 3ds will match the NGP in graphical quality.

I don't want whatever you're smoking.

Agree with this comment 10 up, 0 down Disagree with this comment

OPHIDIAN
Thursday, April 14, 2011 @ 7:31:26 PM

You do realise the graphics of the NGP are said to look closer to that of the PS3 than PS2?

That would put it way past anything the 3DS has to offer.

Agree with this comment 2 up, 0 down Disagree with this comment

big6
Thursday, April 14, 2011 @ 1:13:39 PM
Reply

I think the NGP's success will depend on how comfortable and usable its dual-analogue sticks are to use.
If one can play popular FPSes (*cough* CoD *cough*) on it well, then I think NGP has nowhere to go but UP.

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Lawless SXE
Thursday, April 14, 2011 @ 1:15:30 PM
Reply

I hope so. If it gets the sales, it'll get the software and everyone will benefit.
Peace.

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WorldEndsWithMe
Thursday, April 14, 2011 @ 1:17:39 PM
Reply

I still think about Ben's article on where the NGP will stand in respect to being a on the go hardcore gaming rig or a popular gadget.

Hopefully it can grab both markets, but as much as I hate to say this it might need some serious kiddy shovelware to grab that demographic it needs to compete with 3DS. I know there's plenty of folks here who can see that ninty isn't really offering much here but a gimmick, however the casual public isn't as informed.

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kraygen
Thursday, April 14, 2011 @ 3:14:39 PM

True, however if NGP is offering Cod to all the 18 million fanatics who can't get away from it, maybe NGP will sell more than any other hand held.

Those FPS hounds will be on NGP like crack hounds.

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WorldEndsWithMe
Thursday, April 14, 2011 @ 5:33:57 PM

I wonder, cuz most of them don't care about games unless they are at home with a six pack.

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shadowpal2
Thursday, April 14, 2011 @ 1:38:21 PM
Reply

If someone hacks the NGP...it all goes downhill from there. I swear there have been MILLIONS of dollars lost just by the whole issue with the PSP today.

In something like the NGP, which holds a lot more power that is comparable to a gaming console...game developers are certainly going to have to spend money working on games for it. But once again, if it's hacked...it just goes DOWNHILL for game developers from there...and ultimately SONY since no one would want to develop for their system since they aren't making a profit.

At the very least...NGP owners would get PORTS of PS3 games if such a situation were to ever occur.

Anyway I wish the best for this. I WANT ONE SO BAD. What a gadget!

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Highlander
Thursday, April 14, 2011 @ 2:32:26 PM

I have a suspicion that Sony has learned a lot in the last 18-months about defending their system's security....Hopefully they continue learning and applying the lessons.

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Beamboom
Thursday, April 14, 2011 @ 3:32:46 PM

Was piracy (I assume thats the issue right?) really *that* bad on the psp? I hardly knew it existed!

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faraga
Thursday, April 14, 2011 @ 3:43:54 PM

Yes, it was. I once got a broken screen repaired at some smallscale store and when I got it back they told me they could get it chipped for 25 euros.

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Highlander
Thursday, April 14, 2011 @ 3:56:41 PM

Piracy on the PSP in The US and UK was particularly bad. Despite pretty decent unit sales for the hardware, many games sold quite poorly, despite being pretty darned good games. Someone once wrote that 5% of those using custom firmware are truly using it for Homebrew applications that extend the device's function, while the other 95% use it purely for piracy. That's pretty much borne out by the experience of the PSP in the US.

Now, I don't know about you, but it sure seems to me that it's more unfair to allow a platform to be hacked and fail, negatively affecting 100% of legitimate gamers. Than it is to impose strict security and anti-hacking measures that inconvenience a far smaller number of gamers who might use Homebrew apps. The impact of piracy can be seen in the number of game torrents available at launch of a game, as well as in the usage statistics for such torrents. It's not a pretty picture.

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Dancemachine55
Thursday, April 14, 2011 @ 7:20:31 PM

Perhaps Sony could use their game updates from the PSP as a measure of security?

Not sure how effective it would be from a technical standing point (Highlander, you might know?) but all new games released after a firmware update required the update to play.

Maybe the NGP could be hack proofed with constant updates required to play new titles, and each update cancelling out any mods or chips detected in the system?

It sounds time consuming and expensive, but I think it is an effective measure against piracy.

I feel really sorry for Sony right now. The cracked PSP problem, the whole GeoHotz debacle (which is finally over now) and now Anonymous making everyone mad, Sony just can't seem to catch a break!! Why is Sony always a target? I haven't heard anything about 360 or Wii being hacked? Wait, the Wii, yes. Even my cousins have a chipped Wii with over 160 games on an HDD. Nintendo's install base is so huge though that they've just ignored it.

Shame Sony can't ignore hacks and mods like Nintendo, cause the PSP problem is what happened when they did.

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Highlander
Thursday, April 14, 2011 @ 11:03:37 PM

Actually one of the little known aspects of the PS3 security failures is that two specific failures precipitated the entire chain of events.

The first was to loss of one of the service keys used to push PS3s into service mode. With that illicit token hackers were able to jailbreak the PS3 by forcing it into debug mode - which allows most anything to be run. After that happened, some extremely capable mathematicians and hackers attacked the firmware encryption. Sony acted to block the jailbreak devices, and eventually managed to block them from working completely. However the debug mode enabled privileged attacks on the PS3 firmware, and ultimately a flaw in the encryption code exposed the private signing key, as well as allowing the extraction of other keys stored in the firmware.

Had the security code not been flawed, the jailbreaking would have been stopped by firmware updates. The awful coding failure/quality control failure in the firmware's encryption routines allowed everything to be broken wide open.

It's fair to say that the hackers actually lucked out because if the firmware had not contained the glaring error it did, the hackers would essentially be at square one, still.

I would anticipate that the NGP security firmware will have been tested to destruction by multiple teams looking for exactly the kinds of catastrophic flaw that hobbled the PS3. I wouldn't say it will be hack-proof, but it will be very hack resistant. The other thing I think Sony will have learned from the PS3 is that PSN access will use an encrypted protocol that allows PSN to request responses that can only be returned by authentic firmware. I'm certain that there will be enhanced checking in game executables as well so that a game can tell if either it has been compromised, or if the firmware has been compromised and simply halt.

Simply put, hackers should not anticipate an easy ride.

I also have been considering whether there might be a change in the delivery of systems so that when you buy the system it has no firmware, and only a heavily encrypted hardware bootstrap. When you buy the system you have to separately agree to the license terms and conditions to obtain the firmware. That way, there is none of this I bought the hardware I can do what I want with the system software on it, because the system software would be delivered as a separate product. That would make legal remedies easier and more biting.

We'll see how it shakes out. I know that hackers like to say everything can be hacked, and obviously they are correct even if the computing time required is a substantial fraction of the life of the universe right now. Ever advancing computer speeds mean that eventually even a brute force attack is possible. The trick it to make it so that such an attack is unfeasible in a reasonable time. The key thing is to make it difficult enough that there's no point trying.

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LimitedVertigo
Thursday, April 14, 2011 @ 3:45:45 PM
Reply

Well Duh? The PSP was Sony's first dip in the handheld pool. Of course their second attempt will have the luxury of having the cushion of an already established brand.

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SmokeyPSD
Friday, April 15, 2011 @ 3:07:27 AM
Reply

Good to hear, considering the PSP was pretty damn successful.

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Highlander
Friday, April 15, 2011 @ 10:22:24 AM

I love the PSP, it's been one of my most used gadgets. I have to agree that despite the bad press it has been a very successful product, and I hope/think that NGP/PSP2 will build on that.

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Aranha
Saturday, April 16, 2011 @ 2:12:46 PM
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There's another reason why the NGP will have more success than the PSP: It has history. Before the launch of the PSP there was nothing to gauge, nothing in Sony's portable history. It being the first portable game system for Sony, no one knew to expect. But now that people know, the NGP has something to live off of. Besides, now Sony knows what works and what doesn't. Trial and error. It's experience. They learn from their mistakes, and they improve upon what they've already done correctly. Look at the difference between the PS1 and the PS2. Tremendous growth for the PS2, because of good foundation and reputation that the PS1 built.

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Eliskor
Monday, April 18, 2011 @ 12:07:21 PM
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Let's just hope it doesn't take as long as the PSP did to get good games. I had to sell a PSP because I was bored as hell with it. Then a friend got me the Dissidia bundle last year. And its been a good system. Sadly not as used as my DS, but let's just admit it...the DS' library beats the PSP's into the ground. And with PSP2/NGP being later than 3DS in release the 3DS will, of course, already have its foot in the door.

And I'm thinking of getting the PSP2/NGP, but I'm not as excited for it as I'd like to be. Most of what's been shown as left me feeling "meh" towards it. It looks nice, yes, but I don't see much that'll really sell me on it. I guess I'll wait to see what Sony shows off at E3. Hopefully we get some potential launch games listed.

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Eliskor
Monday, April 18, 2011 @ 12:07:29 PM
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Let's just hope it doesn't take as long as the PSP did to get good games. I had to sell a PSP because I was bored as hell with it. Then a friend got me the Dissidia bundle last year. And its been a good system. Sadly not as used as my DS, but let's just admit it...the DS' library beats the PSP's into the ground. And with PSP2/NGP being later than 3DS in release the 3DS will, of course, already have its foot in the door.

And I'm thinking of getting the PSP2/NGP, but I'm not as excited for it as I'd like to be. Most of what's been shown as left me feeling "meh" towards it. It looks nice, yes, but I don't see much that'll really sell me on it. I guess I'll wait to see what Sony shows off at E3. Hopefully we get some potential launch games listed.

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